Louisville Looks to Rebound From Kentucky Loss vs Florida State as 6.5 Point Home Favorite

Jordan Nwora talking to his coach
After an OT loss t Kentucky, Jordan Nwora and the Louisville Cardinals try to bounce back as they take on the Florida State Seminoles in ACC play. Photo from @WDRBNews (Twitter).
  • Louisville lost to Kentucky 78-70 in overtime at Rupp Arena on Dec. 28
  • Florida State dominated Georgia Tech 70-58 in Tallahassee on Dec. 31
  • Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below

The #7 Louisville Cardinals (11-2, 9-0 home) will play host to the #18 Florida State Seminoles (12-2, 1-2 away) at the KFC Yum! Center on January 4th at 2pm ET.

Louisville is coming off a tough 78-70 overtime loss against interstate rival Kentucky, which means they will be looking to bounce back against a Florida State team that has won five in a row.

In the Florida State vs Louisville odds, the Cardinals come out as 6.5-point favorites. Louisville has not been favored by more than four points in this matchup since 2016.

Florida State #18 vs #7 Louisville Odds

Team Spread at BetOnline Moneyline Total
Florida State +6.5 (-107) +240 O 134.0 (-110)
Louisville -6.5 (-113) -300 U 134.0 (-110)

*Odds taken January 4, 2020.

Seminole Consistency

Florida State has played some very respectable basketball heading into the heat of their ACC schedule. The Seminoles took down Georgia Tech easily by a margin of 70-58 with some stout defense. Florida State had 11 steals and swarmed any Yellow Jacket player trying to score inside the paint with nine blocks.

Florida State is undefeated against ranked opponents this year, knocking off Florida and Tennessee. The Seminoles have been led by a trio of guards on the offensive end. Sophomore Devin Vassell (11.8 PPG), senior Trent Forrest (11.5 PPG), and junior M.J. Walker (10.1 PPG) have been instrumental in their big wins.

Florida State’s two losses have come at the hands of Pittsburgh and Indiana. The Seminoles’ season-opening loss to Pittsburgh was ugly. They shot 30% from beyond the arc, had 14 turnovers, and got into foul trouble early and often finishing with 27.

According to the KenPom Ratings, the Seminoles rank 19th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at 88.9. However, they have had trouble clearing the glass and allowing second chance points. They rank 293rd in allowed offensive rebound percentage, which is a stat Louisville can easily exploit as they average six more rebounds per game than Florida State.

Cardinal Calling

Louisville took a hard-fought loss in overtime to Kentucky in their last game. After trailing 32-24 coming into the second half, Louisville erased the six-point deficit to force overtime. After keeping it close in the first couple of minutes of overtime, Ashton Hagans and the Wildcats pulled away in the last 45 seconds to win 78-70.

Louisville struggled shooting the ball against Kentucky. The Cardinals shot 25.9% from beyond three-point land and made just nine of their 20 attempts at the charity stripe.

Louisville’s other loss came at the hands of Texas Tech. Some of their bigger wins this season have been against Michigan, Pittsburgh, and Miami. Their offense has been clicking this year, as they have scored over 80 points in five of their 12 games. According to the KenPom Ratings, Louisville has the 13th-ranked Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating at 111.8.

Forward Jordan Nwora has been a big reason for the Cardinals’ success on the offensive side of the ball. Nwora is averaging 20.2 points and 7.2 rebounds per game this season.

The junior out of Buffalo, New York has scored 20 or more points in nine of his 12 contests. Although Nwora struggled against Kentucky, and head coach Chris Mack let him know that, he should be in for big bounce back game at home.

Best Bet

Louisville is 3-2 ATS in their last five matchups against Florida State. After a tough loss against Kentucky, the Cardinals are poised for a big bounce back win to ensure their 2020 NCAA Tournament odds don’t waiver too much.

The public money slightly favors Louisville as 6.5-point favorites at 60% with little to no line movement. Louisville is 2-0 ATS this season against the ACC, while Florida State is 2-1 ATS.

Louisville is 14-3 ATS in January games over the last three seasons. The Cardinals are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite and are a clean 9-0 SU at home.

The Seminoles have struggled on the road recently, with a 2-5 ATS mark in their last seven games away from Tallahassee. Louisville’s offense will be too strong for Florida State. I can see the Seminoles hanging on early, but Louisville will pull away by a large margin in the second half once they get into their offensive groove.

Best Bet: Louisville -6.5 (-113)

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