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LSU vs TCU Odds and Picks (Jan. 29)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in College Basketball

Jan 29, 2022 · 12:15 AM PST

Tari Eason
LSU mascot Mike the Tiger, forward Tari Eason (13), forward Alex Fudge (3), and forward Shareef O'Neal (24) celebrate the team's victory against Texas A&M in an NCAA college basketball game against Texas A&M in Baton Rouge, La., Wednesday, Jan. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)
  • LSU is a 2.5-point road favorite over TCU on Saturday
  • This game is part of the Big 12/SEC Challenge
  • A look at the matchup and odds can be found below with a prediction

After finding a way to win shorthanded, #19 LSU will visit TCU at 12:00 p.m. ET Saturday in a Big 12/SEC Challenge game at Schollmaier Arena in Fort Worth.

LSU (16-4/1-3 road) ended its three-game losing streak Wednesday night despite missing two starters when it rallied to beat Texas A&M 70-64 at home. TCU (13-4/7-2 home) has lost two of its last three games, including being routed by visiting Texas 73-50 on Tuesday.

LSU vs TCU Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
LSU -140 -2.5 (-110) Over 124.5 (-110)
TCU +116 +2.5 (-110) Under 124.5 (-110)

Odds as of January 28th at FanDuel.

LSU is a 2.5-point favorite in a game that will be televised on ESPN2. The Tigers’ implied win probability is 58.33% based on being -140 on the moneyline.

LSU Betting Outlook

LSU failed to cover the nine-point spread against Texas A&M and has dropped three of its last four ATS. The Tigers, though, are an outstanding 14-6 against the number this season, including 3-2 as a road team.

LSU played without senior forward Darius Days (ankle) and senior guard Xavier Pinson (knee). Days is questionable for Saturday, but Pinson is doubtful after missing five consecutive games.

Freshman guard Brandon Murray and sophomore guard Eric Gaines stepped into the void Wednesday by posting season highs in points., Murray finished with 21 while Gaines added 16 points, six rebounds, four steals and three assists.

Murray has improved his season scoring average to 10.3 points by reaching double figures in seven of his last eight games. He scored 10 or more points just twice in his first 11 games.

Gaines moved into the starting lineup when Pinson was injured.

 

Days is having a fine season with averages of 13.1 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.5 steals. After transferring from Missouri, Pinson is averaging 10.9 points, 4.6 assists, 3.1 rebounds and 2.1 steals.

Another transfer, sophomore forward Tari Eason, has bolstered LSU with averages of 15.9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.5 steals.

Despite being limited to 27 minutes because of cramping and sitting out the game-ending rally, the Cincinnati transfer finished with 14 points and nine rebounds against Texas A&M. He has scored in double digits in 11 of the last 12 games.

LSU outscored the Aggies 13-2 over the final 3:34 to overcome a 62-57 deficit. The game had 11 lead changes and 10 ties. Both teams committed 18 turnovers.

The Tigers made 6 of 13 (46.2%) three-pointers and grabbed offensive rebounds on 15 of their 27 missed field goal attempts.

TCU Betting Outlook

TCU had been the winning side ATS in eight of its last nine games before stumbling against Texas. The Horned Frogs are 3-4-2 ATS at home in 2021-22 but 9-6-2 overall.

Sophomore guard Mike Miles Jr. leads TCU in scoring with 15.4 points a game to go with averages of 4.0 assists and 3.9 rebounds.

He has some shooting range, too.

Miles scored a team-high 14 points Tuesday. That was a welcome sign after Miles was held to single digits in each of the previous three games.

Junior forward Emmanuel Miller added 13 points and five blocked shots, his first double-digit scoring performance in six games.

A transfer from Texas A&M, Miller has been a big addition to a TCU roster that has just four holdovers from last season. Miller is scoring 10.1 points and pulling down 6.9 rebounds a game.

Senior forward Chuck O’Bannon Jr. has a 9.5 scoring average.

The most surprising aspect of the loss to Texas for TCU was getting outrebounded 41-31. The Horned Frogs are outrebounding opponents by 9.0 a game, the third-best margin in the nation.

TCU shot just 36.0% (18 of 50), including a dismal 12.5% (2 of 16) from three-point range. The Horned Frogs were out of the game early, trailing 43-23 at halftime and never getting closer than 15 points at 63-48 with 5:19 left.

LSU vs TCU Prediction

The game matches two of the top defensive teams in the country. LSU ranks first in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 81.1 points per 100 possessions and TCU is 18th with a 91.4 mark.

LSU is banged up physically while the biggest thing hurting with TCU is its pride following the shellacking by Texas. Look for the Horned Frogs to make a statement at home against a ranked team.

  • The Pick: TCU +2.5 (-110)

 

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