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Miami vs North Carolina Odds, Player Props & Prediction (Feb. 26)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Feb 26, 2024 · 8:17 AM PST

Miami Hurricanes guard Bensley Joseph and North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis go after a loose ball
Feb 10, 2024; Coral Gables, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes guard Bensley Joseph (4) attempts to steal the basketball from North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) during the second half at Watsco Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
  • The reeling Miami Hurricanes head to Chapel Hill for a date with the #10 North Carolina Tar Heels today
  • Miami has lost six in a row while UNC sits atop the ACC standings
  • See the Miami vs North Carolina odds, predictions, and player props on Monday, Feb. 25

Last year’s Final Four run could scarcely feel more like ancient history for Jim Larranaga and the Miami Hurricanes (15-13, 2-7 away, 13-13-2 ATS), who bring a six-game losing streak into Monday’s game against the North Carolina Tar Heels (21-6, 11-1 home,  16-11 ATS) at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill (7:00 pm ET).

With UNC sitting first in the ACC and rating in the top ten in overall efficiency at both KenPom and Torvik, oddsmakers have set them as massive 14-point home favorites on Monday night.

Miami vs North Carolina Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Hurricanes +14 (-110) +750 Over 154.5 (-110)
North Carolina Tar Heels -14 (-110) -1205 Under 154.5 (-110)

North Carolina is also an unbettable -1205 to win on the moneyline in Monday’s college basketball odds, while the Hurricanes come back at +750 to win their first game in nearly a month. The over/under is sitting at 154.5, which is 7.5 points more than the teams combined for in their first meeting, a 75-72 road win for UNC back on Feb. 10.

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Odds as of Feb. 26 at bet365. See the latest on the bet365 app in North Carolina.

North Carolina Almost Perfect at Home This Season

UNC has used an 11-1 home record to ascend to the top of the ACC standings, its only loss in Chapel Hill coming against Clemson (80-76) on Feb. 6. The Tar Heels allowed Clemson to start that game on a 13-0 run and take a nine-point lead into halftime. They erased it entirely in the second, tying the game at 70, but couldn’t quite complete the comeback. They took out their frustrations on Virginia Tech in their next (and most-recent) home game,  opening a 50-39 lead in the first half and cruising to a 15-point victory (96-81).

UNC’s stars led the way with Armando Bacot (14.4 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 1/7 BPG) dropping 25 points and 12 rebounds, and leading scorer RJ Davis (21.0 PPG, 3.5 APG) adding 20 points and five assists.

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The Tar Heels are currently rated eighth at KenPom in defensive efficiency but just 24th on offense while playing at the 45th-fastest tempo in the country.

While the final score of UNC’s first game against the Hurricanes was close (75-72), in reality, only the first half was narrow. UNC started the second half on a 14-2 run to take a 54-46 lead that they stretched to 12 before Miami made narrowed the gap in the final minutes.

Miami’s Nightmare Continues

With Nijel Pack, Norchad Omier, and Wooga Poplar returning from a team that made a run to the 2023 Final Four, expectations were high for Miami entering the season. But this just hasn’t been the same group – or even a reasonable approximation – without Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller, last year’s leading scorers. Miami started the year well enough, going 11-2 with wins over Clemson (95-82 home), UCF (88-72 home), and K-State (91-83 neutral), but most of their ACC schedule has been a disaster.

After losing 80-76 at home to Georgia Tech on Saturday (as nine-point favorites), the Canes are now 6-11 in conference play. Their efficiency rating has fallen from 47th in the country in early January to 92nd after the setback against the Yellow Jackets.

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Not only has Miami lost six in a row straight-up, the Canes have also lose four straight against the spread and seven of their last nine against the number.

Injuries and absences have been part of the problem. Point guard Pack (13.7 PPG, 3.6 AGP) hasn’t played since Feb. 14 due to a knee injury, but Miami was already on a three-game losing streak before he exited the lineup.

MIA vs UNC Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Armando Bacot (UNC) 14.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 10.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) OFF OFF
Cormac Ryan (UNC) 13.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 2.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 2.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -170)
Harrison Ingram (UNC) 12.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 10.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 2.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 1.5 (Ov -145 | Un +115)
Matthew Cleveland (MIA) 12.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) 5.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) OFF 0.5 (Ov -185 | Un +145)
Norchad Omier (MIA) 17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 8.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) OFF 0.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
RJ Davis (UNC) 20.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 3.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 4.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100) 3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -170)
Wooga Poplar (MIA) 12.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 4.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) OFF 1.5 (Ov -170 | Un +130)

Player props from the DraftKings Sportsbook app. NC residents can follow this link to read up on the DraftKings North Carolina promo ahead of launch on March 11.

UNC’s Davis has the highest point total on the board at 20.5, almost bang-on his season average of 20.7. Omier has the highest total among Miami players at 17.5. Both Bacot and Harrison Ingram have rebound totals in double-digits (10.5), portending a huge advantage on the glass for the Tar Heels.

Miami vs UNC Prediction

The last four weeks have been horrendous from a Miami standpoint, and things appear to be getting worse. Saturday’s loss to Georgia tech was a new low. The Yellow Jackets are rated 139th at KenPom, second-last among ACC teams (only Louisville is lower at 190th). UNC has spent most of this season demolishing teams at home. Only three of UNC’s home wins have come by fewer than 15 points (100-92 vs Tennessee, 78-70 vs Florida State, and 93-84 vs Duke).

Fourteen points is a big number, but not too big in the circumstances.

MIA vs UNC pick: North Carolina -14 (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

  • ATS: 16-13 (+1.52 units)
  • Moneyline: 2-6 (-4.48 units)
  • Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
  • Player props: 2-2 (+0.78 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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