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Miami vs North Carolina Odds, Spread and Picks (Feb. 13)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Updated Mar 7, 2023 · 2:43 PM PST

Miami (Fl) Hurricanes forward Norchad Omier dunking
Feb 11, 2023; Coral Gables, Florida, USA; Miami (Fl) Hurricanes forward Norchad Omier (15) dunks the ball against the Louisville Cardinals during the second half at Watsco Center. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
  • Miami and North Carolina meet for the second time this season on Monday, February
  • North Carolina is a 4.5-point home favorite over Miami in Chapel Hill.
  • Read below for Miami vs North Carolina odds, analysis and prediction.

North Carolina (16-9, 8-6 Atlantic Coast) is a 4.5-point home favorite over Miami in an ACC game at 7 pm Monday on ESPN. The  Tar Heels broke a three-game losing with a 91-71 home victory over Clemson on Saturday.

No. 19 Miami (20-5, 11-4 Atlantic Coast) has won four in a row and five of six. The Hurricanes became the second ACC team to reach 20 wins with a 93-85 home win over Louisville on Saturday.

Miami vs North Carolina Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Hurricanes +4.5 (-110) +160 Over 153.5 (-110)
North Carolina Tar Heels -4.5 (-110) -190 Under 153.5 (-110)

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North Carolina is a 4.5-point favorite over Miami in a series that was mostly Tar Heels until Miami broke a five-game series losing streak with an 85-57 blowout win in Coral Gables last season. That was the Hurricanes’ series win since 2018. North Carolina is 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS in the last six in the series, 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in four games at the Dean Dome since 2016. All those games went over the total.



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North Carolina has been one of the worst spread plays of the season, going 8-15-2 against the number. Miami is 15-10 ATS, and its 7-2 ATS road record is among the best in Division I.

North Carolina Repeating History

This North Carolina team is being compared to the 2021-22 group that burst from a mid-season slump to make the NCAA championship game, and some of that narrative holds. The pricinals returned, and the records at this stage are similar. Tar Heels dropped to 18-8 after losing to Pitt in mid-February a year ago before winning 11 of 12 to make the NCAA finals. They had two Quad 1 wins at this point a year ago and are 1-8 in Quad 1 games now. At the same time, the season has been more herky-jerky. They have had four- and three-game skids this year after never losing more than two in a row a year ago.

North Carolina guard 6’4″ Caleb Love (16.8 points, 56 threes) had 23 points and tied his career high with six three-pointers against Clemson. This, a few days after shooting down twitterverse reports of a rift between him and 6′ guard R. J. Davis (15.8, 4.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists). Post 6’10” Armando Bacot (17.6 points, 11.3 rebounds) had a 19/11 double-double against the Tigers and has 15 double-doubles this season., Forward 6’10” Pete Nance (10.1 points. 6.0 rebounds) is back after missing three games with a back injury.

The Heels lost the only game Bacot missed at Virginia Tech on Dec. 4. The Tar Heels are not deep — all five of their starters average at least 30 minutes per game, although Puff Johnson has played more recently.

Miami Good … and Healthy

The Hurricanes have reached 20 wins for the eighth time in Jim Larrañaga’s 12 seasons with a lineup that has remained constant throughout. Top three scorers guard Isaiah Wong (16.2 points, 3.5 assists), forward Jordan Miller (14.7 points, 5.6 rebounds) and post player Norchad Omier (14.1 points, 10 rebounds) have started every game, and No. 4 scorer Nijel Pack (12.6 points, 58 threes) has started all but one.

Pack had 22 points and Wong and Ormier had 21 in the Hurricanes’ victory over Louisville. Miami began the week with an 81-59 home blowout of Duke on Tuesday, two days after Duke beat North Carolina 63-57 at home two days before. Miami does a lot of things right. They are shooting 48.4 percent from the field, and by averaging almost eight three-pointers per game have a 54.8 effective field goal percentage, in the top 30 in Division I. Omier and Bacot are two of the three ACC players averaging a double/double.

Miami vs North Carolina Prediction

Miami lost but covered its two previous games on Tobacco Road this season, two-point losses to North Carolina State and Duke in a eight-day span in mid-January. North Carolina is 11-1 at home this season, 7-0 and 4-3 ATS against ACC opponents. The Tar Heels tied a season high with 15 3-pointers against Clemson and shot 45.5 percent from distance. Those numbers are unsustainable for a team that is last in the 15-team ACC in three-point shooting at 30.9 percent.

  • Pick: Miami +4.5 (-110)
  • Season CBK: 34-22 ATS 
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