- Michigan vs #10 Michigan State on Saturday (Jan. 29) at 9 pm ET
- Eight of the Wolverines past 10 games have gone over the total
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
One of the great rivalries in college basketball resumes on Saturday (Jan. 29) as Michigan visits #10 Michigan State. The Wolverines and Spartans have split the last eight meetings, with Michigan holding a 102-86 lead all-time over its conference foe.
Michigan vs #10 Michigan State Odds
|Michigan Wolverines||+155||+4.5 (-110)||O 138.5 (-110)|
|Michigan State Spartans||-188||-4.5 (-110)||U 138.5 (-110)|
Odds as of Jan 28th at BetMGM.
Michigan State opened up as a 4.5-point home favorite, in a contest that features a total of 138.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 12:30 pm ET at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Michigan, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Analysis
The Spartans (15-4, 6-2 Big Ten) enter play losers of two of their last three, including last time out against #24 Illinois. The Illini were missing two starters, including leading scorer and All-American Kofi Cockburn, but they still found a way to prevail over MSU 56-55.
Comeback falls short in Champaign 🏀 pic.twitter.com/LFDOmmdinj
— Michigan State Men's Basketball (@MSU_Basketball) January 26, 2022
Michigan State had a chance to tie the game in the final seconds as Malik Hall got to the line, but the junior forward could only make one of two free throws sealing the Spartans fate.
Marcus Bingham Jr. led the offense with 13 points, 6 rebounds and 4 blocks, while leading scorer Gabe Brown poured in 10 points.
Marcus Bingham making things happen 👀
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) January 26, 2022
MSU shot a dismal 34.5% from the field, and 21.4% from three, en route to its worst offensive performance of the season. Defensively, they did a decent job limiting Illinois to 41.5% from the field, but forced only 7 turnovers, while yielding six more three’s than they made.
The offensive performance was surprising given the Spartans offensive efficiency this season, and the fact that the Illini are not a super elite on defense. Michigan State enters play averaging 74.3 points per outing, while shooting 46.3% from the field, and 38.5% from beyond the arc.
B1G game on Saturday 👀 pic.twitter.com/yEi6b1o6Gj
— Michigan State Men's Basketball (@MSU_Basketball) January 27, 2022
Defensively, they rank fourth in the Big Ten in opponent points per game (65.6), and top-20 in the nation in enemy shooting percentage, defensive rebounding and blocks.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Analysis
The Wolverines meanwhile, enter play winners of three straight. Last time out, Michigan (10-7, 4-3 Big Ten) squeaked by Northwestern 72-70, thanks to 18 points from freshman Caleb Houston.
Oh what a night!
— Michigan Men's Basketball (@umichbball) January 27, 2022
DeVante Jones added 15 points and 6 assists, while Eli Brooks splashed 12 points. It was a down night for leading scorer Hunter Dickinson who managed just 9 points, after scoring 20-plus in four of his previous five outings.
Michigan shot a blistering 56.1% from the field, and 66.7% from three, continuing their run of strong offensive play. They’ve now scored 72 or more in three straight, and are averaging 78 points per game during their three-game winning streak.
Defensively, they allowed the Wildcats to shoot 49% from the field, and 47% from three, but unlike previous seasons, defense is not their strength. They rank 60th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, compared to 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
KEEP THE ENERGY UP ⚡️⚡️⚡️
— Michigan Men's Basketball (@umichbball) January 29, 2022
The Wolverines rank outside the top-90 in both scoring defense and opponent field goal percentage, and have surrendered at least 70 points seven times in 17 games. By comparison, Michigan surrendered 70 points seven times in 24 games during the 2020-21 regular season.
Michigan vs Michigan State Pick
The Wolverines’ strong offense, and surprisingly average defense has led to overs being prevalent in their games recently. Eight of their past 10 contests have eclipsed the total, while seven of their past nine outings have produced at least 140 points.
— Michigan State Athletics (@MSU_Athletics) January 28, 2022
The Spartans on the other hand, rank higher in adjusted defensive efficiency and lower in adjusted offensive efficiency than their state rival, but that hasn’t stopped the over from being a popular choice in their contests.
Seven of MSU’s past 10 games have eclipsed the total, including three of its past five at the Breslin Center.
Pick: Over 138.5 (-110)