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Michigan Wolverines’ National Championship Odds Surge to +600 After Routing FSU

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Mar 28, 2021 · 6:46 PM PDT

Hunter Dickinson Michigan Wolverines
Michigan center Hunter Dickinson (1) celebrates after making a dunk in the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Minnesota at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Mich., Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Tony Ding)
  • The East #1 seed Michigan Wolverines pounded #4 Florida State 76-58 in the Sweet 16
  • Oddsmakers still aren’t giving UM much respect
  • Are the shorthanded Wolverines good value to win three more games and their first title since 1989?

East #1 seed Michigan was the most-disrespected of the four top seeds enting the 2021 NCAA Tournament. They were listed at average odds of +783 before the first round, and actually got longer after the first round. The rest of the #1 seeds (Gonzaga, Illinois, and Baylor) were between +195 and +567.

Three games later, Michigan’s title odds have shortened, but not as much as you might think.

After handling #16 Texas Southern and #8 LSU with relative ease, UM crushed Florida State in the Sweet 16, racing out to an 11-point halftime lead before ultimately winning by 18. They entered the game as short two-point favorites and a +900 bet to win the tournament.

Looking at the updated title odds, you would be forgiven for thinking the FSU vs Michigan game hadn’t finished yet.

Now at +600 in the March Madness title odds, the Wolverines remain half-a-mile behind favorites Gonzaga (+120) and Baylor (+275).

2021 March Madness Championship Odds

Team Odds at DraftKings
Gonzaga +120
Baylor +250
Houston +600
Michigan +1000
Oregon State +1400
Arkansas +1800
USC +2500
Oregon +3300
Alabama OFF
UCLA OFF

Odds as of March 28th.

Michigan Looks Dominant

For the third straight game in the tournament, Michigan won the rebounding battle by a healthy margin (37-31), shot more free-throw attempts, shot considerably better from the floor (49.2% to 40.0%), and shot better from the three-point line, although not by much in the FSU game (27.3% to 25.0%).

In other words, there is basically no area of the game where UM has looked vulnerable. The one area that sort of stood out against LSU was the turnover margin (12 for UM vs 3 for LSU). Even that got cleaned up against the Noles, who turned the ball over 14 times to Michigan’s 9.

One of the main concerns coming into the tournament was the absence of senior leader Isaiah Livers. He was second on the team in scoring (13.1 PPG) and first in minutes (31.6 MPG) while shooting a blistering 43.1% from three. His replacement in the starting lineup, unheralded junior Brandon Johns Jr, had never proven capable of filling a Livers-sized absence.

Case in point, if you Google “Brandon Johns highlights,” you get page after page from high-school and nothing from his days with the Wolverines.

Johns Jr was averaging just 4.5 points in 11.8 minutes per game while shooting a half-decent 36.8% from deep this season, and you can count me among the heavy sceptics.

He was so-so in the opener against overmatched #16 seed Texas Southern (11 points, two rebounds, one block, one steal, plus 6-8 from the stripe) and then again in the ten-point win over LSU in the second round (seven points, five rebounds, two blocks, one steal).

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He took his game to a new level against FSU, going 5-10 from the field and 4-6 from the free-throw line (14 points) while grabbing six boards (three offensive), two steals, and two assists.

Dickinson Hasn’t Had to Do Everything

The absence of Livers looked like it was going to heap even more pressure on freshman phenom Hunter Dickinson, who was already leading the team in scoring (14.2 PPG) and rebounding (7.5 RPG).

Dickinson has been solid in the first three games (14.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG( but, importantly, hasn’t had to be all world. His supporting cast has taken turns rising to the occasion.

Against LSU, Eli Brooks (9.7 PPG, 3.0 APG) scored a team-high 21 points while dishing out seven assists. Against the Noles, Johns and Dickinson tied for a team-high with 14 points while Franz Wager (Mo’s little brother) added 13 and ten boards.

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What Lies Ahead?

One of the main reasons the Wolverines are lagging behind Baylor and Gonzaga in the title futures is possible opponents.

Gonzaga is going to face either #7 Oregon or #6 USC. Baylor will meet Arkansas as seven-point chalk. At the time of writing, Michigan’s most-likely opponent was #2 Alabama (which was set to face UCLA as 6.5-point favorites.

Alabama was perceived by oddsmakers and bettors alike as the most-dangerous opponent of the bunch. But that’s really accurate if you look at the analytics. USC actually rates higher at KenPom (6th) at this point, while Oregon (15th) and Arkansas (16th) are close behind Bama (8th). All three #1 seeds are going to face extremely dangerous competition from here on out.

But don’t go rushing out to put a futures bet on UM right this second. The math is still unfavorable.

Michigan’s +600 odds carry an implied probability of just 14.3% to win the tournament. The Wolverines are going to be small favorites over Alabama or roughly six or seven-point favorites against UCLA. They would then likely have to face #1-overall Gonzaga in the Final Four.

If UM is alloted a 55% chance to reach the Final Four, they would still need over a 50% chance (on average) in their next two games to justify a bet at +600. With Gonzaga and Baylor waiting in the wings, that’s not a bet I would make.


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