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NC State vs Duke Odds, Props, Picks & Predictions for the ACC Tournament (March 14)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Mar 14, 2024 · 7:59 AM PDT

North Carolina State Wolfpack forward DJ Burns Jr tries to dribble past Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski
Mar 4, 2024; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack forward DJ Burns Jr. (30) dribbles the ball against Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) during the first half at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-USA TODAY Sports
  • NC State plays its third game in as many days when it faces second-seeded Duke in the ACC quarterfinals on Thursday
  • Duke manhandled the Wolfpack in Raleigh in the penultimate regular-season game for both teams
  • Below, see the NC State vs Duke odds, player props, and picks for Thursday’s ACC quarterfinal game in DC

In-state rivals collide in the nation’s capital on Thursday when the #10 NC State Wolfpack (19-14, 9-11 ACC, 2-3 neutral, 14-18-1 ATS) look to continue their magical ACC Tournament run against the #2 Duke Blue Devils (24-7, 15-5 ACC, 2-0 neutral, 18-12-1 ATS) at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC.

Preceded by Florida State/UNC and Wake Forest/Pitt, North Carolina State vs Duke will be the third tip of quarterfinal Thursday in the ACC Tournament at 7:00 pm ET. Boston College/Virginia rounds out the day’s action.

With NC State expected to be on fumes, the Blue Devils are listed as double-digit favorites.

NC State vs Duke Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
NC State Wolfpack +11.5 (-120) +475 Over 149.5 (-115)
Duke Blue Devils -11.5 (-100) -565 Under 149.5 (-105)

Duke is an 11.5-point neutral-court favorite in Thursday’s college basketball odds and -565 on the moneyline. NC State, which got by Louisville on Tuesday (94-85) as 9.5-point chalk and crushed Syracuse on Wednesday (83-65) as two-point underdogs, is a +475 longshot to win its third game in as many days.


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Odds from ESPN Bet on March 14. Get an ESPN Bet North Carolina promo to wager on NC State vs Duke on Thursday night.

Prior to the ACC Tournament, the projected March Madness bracket had Duke as a #3 seed. NC State, which sits 73rd in the NET Rankings, realistically needs to win the ACC Tournament to get into the bracket.

Wolfpack Dominate Orange

NC State avenged two regular-season losses to Syracuse last night, and did so with a statement. After a back-and-forth first half, which saw the Wolfpack take a three-point lead into the break, they started the second half on a 25-7 run and cruised to an 18-point win (83-65).

Junior guard Jayden Taylor (12.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG) had a team-high 18 points in the win while forward Mohamed Diarra had eight points, 14 rebounds, and six assists.

YouTube video

Importantly, leading scorer DJ Horne (16.8 PPG) – who missed the Louisville game with a hip injury – was able to come off the bench and score 16 points in just 19 minutes of action, and was a menace defensively with four steals.

Expectations were low for the Wolfpack entering the conference tournament, having lost four straight to end the regular season. But Kevin Keatts’ group has looked a lot more like the team that started the season 13-4 (and 5-1 in ACC play) than the one that faded to 9-11 in the conference and was relegated to the first round of the ACC Tournament.

NC State’s only meeting with Duke this season came during its season-ending losing skid when they were thumped 79-64 at home.

Duke Still in the Hunt for #1 Seed

Depending on what happens elsewhere, the Blue Devils still have an outside chance at landing on the #1 line in the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket if they win the ACC title. Houston, UConn, and Purdue are almost certain to occupy three of the four sports, but the fourth will be hotly contested by the likes of Arizona, Auburn, Duke, North Carolina, and Tennessee.

Duke would have the inside track on that spot but lost both games to archrival UNC during the regular season (93-84 away, 84-79 home), and finished the year two back of the Tar Heels in the ACC standings.

The Blue Devils’ best wins this season include a 74-65 victory over Michigan State (19th at KenPom) in Chicago, a 78-70 win over Baylor (14th at KenPom) in New York, and a dominant 75-53 road win at Pitt (46th at KenPom).

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Center Kyle Filipowski (16.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG) hasn’t been quite as dominant as many expected in his sophomore season but still leads the Blue Devils in scoring and rebounding and sits seventh in KenPom’s player of the year ratings.

Senior guard Jeremy Roach gives Duke an experience and circumspect ball-handler. Roach upped his scoring average to 14.3 PPG (from 13.6 last year) while still averaging 3.1 APG (same as last season) and greatly lowering his turnovers from 2.2 to just 1.2 per game.

With Roach as the primary ball-handler, Duke rates 30th out of 362 DI teams in turnover percentage on offense.

North Carolina State vs Duke Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Casey Morsell (NC ST) 11.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 3.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) OFF 0.5 (Ov -230 | Un +170)
DJ Burns Jr (NC ST) 12.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) 4.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) 2.5 (Ov +140 | Un -180) OFF
Jared McCain (DUKE) 14.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 4.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) OFF 2.5  (Ov +130 | Un -170)
Jeremy Roach (DUKE) 15.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) 3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -170) 1.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125)
Kyle Filipowski (DUKE) 15.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) 7.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) 0.5  (Ov -230 | Un +170)
Tyrese Proctor (DUKE) 12.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 3.5 (Ov -100 | Un -140) 3.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 1.5 (Ov -175 | Un +135)

College basketball player props from DraftKings on March 14, 2024. 

In a crowded list of player props, Filipowski has the highest point total at just 15.5 O/U, plus the highest rebound total at 7.5 O/U.

Despite NC State leading scorer Horne managing 16 points in 19 minutes off the bench on Wednesday, his name is still omitted from the NC State vs Duke player props.

NC State vs Duke Prediction

I faded NC State yesterday and was burned. They didn’t look good without Horne in the first half against a bad Louisville team in the first round and had lost four in a row prior. Their dominant performance against Syracuse was one of their best of the season, however.

Keatts doesn’t have a deep lineup and with Horne obviously still laboring from his hip injury, the toll of three games in three days is going to be high. I am wary of backing the Wolfpack over the full 40 minutes, but I do expect NC State to put in a competitive first-half performance while they’re still relatively fresh.

North Carolina State vs Duke picks:

  • NC State first half +6.5 (-112) at DraftKings
  • Filipowski over 15.5 points (-130) at ESPN Bet

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

  • ATS: 19-20 (-2.73 units)
  • Moneyline: 3-11 (-10.68 units)
  • Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
  • Player props: 7-2 (+4.93 units)
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