Upcoming Match-ups

NC State vs Virginia Odds, Predictions & Player Props (March 15)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Mar 18, 2024 · 7:55 AM PDT

North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Kam Woods drives around Virginia Cavaliers guard Taine Murray
Jan 24, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Kam Woods (2) drives to the basket as Virginia Cavaliers guard Taine Murray (10) defends in the first half at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
  • NC State goes for its fourth win in four days when it faces Virginia in the ACC semifinals on Friday night
  • UVA scraped past Boston College in OT last night, while the Wolfpack pulled off a huge upset over Duke
  • Below, get the NC State vs Virginia odds, predictions, and player props for Friday, March 15

The NC State Wolfpack (20-14, 9-11 ACC, 3-3 neutral, 15-18-1 ATS) and Virginia Cavaliers (23-9, 13-7 ACC, 3-1 neutral, 17-14-1 ATS) tangle in the second semifinal of the 2024 ACC Tournament tonight at 9:30 pm ET in Washington, DC.

The Cavaliers eked out a 66-60 OT win over Boston College last night, while the Wolfpack pulled off a massive upset of Duke as 11.5-point underdogs. But having to play their fourth game in as many days, NC State is listed as an underdog again on Friday night.

NC State vs Virginia Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
NC State Wolfpack +2.5 (-105) +125 Over 121.5 (-115)
Virginia Cavaliers -2.5 (-115) -145 Under 121.5 (-105)

UVA is a slight 2.5-point neutral-court favorite in Friday’s college basketball odds and -145 on the moneyline. NC State, which has been the underdog in its last two, comes back at a +125 price to win its fourth straight game.



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Odds as of March 15  at BetMGM North Carolina.

If Virginia loses tonight, it will be in real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons. The Cavaliers were not in last week’s projected March Madness bracket and a setback to the Wolfpack would do further damage to their at-large resume.

NC State has even less of a case than UVA to be an at-large team and, realistically, needs to win the ACC Tournament to make the 68-team March Madness field.

Wolfpack Stun Duke

The past two days, NC State has looked a lot more like the team that started its ACC schedule 5-1 than the one that wound up 9-11. After taking apart Syracuse (83-65) on Wednesday night as two-point underdogs, NC State earned its best win of the season yesterday with a 74-69 upset of Duke as 11.5-point ‘dogs.

Kevin Keatts’ team got production up and down the lineup with five players finishing in double-figures, led by 18 from DJ Horne, who came off the bench for a second straight game due to a lingering hip injury.

YouTube video

NC State used an 11-0 halftime-spanning run to take a 43-34 lead that it wouldn’t surrender. Their perimeter defense was better (and luckier) than usual, with Duke shooting just 25% from beyond the arc (5-of-20).

Over the course of the last three days, NC State has improved from 76th in the KenPom efficiency ratings all the way to 67th, which is just four spots lower than Virginia (63rd).

Virginia Survives Scare Against Boston College

The Cavaliers got all they could handle in their first game of the ACC Tournament against Boston College, which had already knocked off Miami and Clemson to reach the quarterfinals. The Eagles led by as many as ten in the first half and UVA never led by more than two in regulation.

Overtime was a different story, with Virginia scoring nine of the twelve points in the extra frame to earn a 66-60 win (and actually cover the spread as a 4.5-point favorite).

YouTube video

The game also wound up over the total of 120.5, despite the teams scoring just six points combined in the final five-plus minutes of regulation.

Jake Groves led the way offensively for UVA with 15 points, but it was another ugly night for the Wahoo’s on offense. They barely cracked 40% from the field (25-of-62) and were 8-of-25 from three (32%). A 45-to-38 edge on the glass helped staunch BC’s upset bid.

Virginia and NC State split their regular-season meetings with each winning at home. The Wolfpack took an easy 76-60 victory in Raleigh on Jan. 6, getting 14 points, six rebounds, and three assists from Horne. UVA clawed its way to a 59-53 OT win in Charlottesville on Jan. 24, led by 13 points and eight rebounds from Ryan Dunn.

NC State vs UVA Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Casey Morsell (NC ST) 8.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) 2.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100) OFF 0.5 (Ov -210 | Un +155)
DJ Burns Jr (NC ST) 11.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 4.5 (Ov -100 | Un -140) OFF OFF
Isaac McKneely (UVA) 12.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 3.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) OFF 1.5  (Ov -175 | Un +135)
Jacob Groves (UVA) 8.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +105) OFF 1.5 (Ov -100 | Un -140)
Reece Beekman (UVA) 16.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +105) 5.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) 0.5  (Ov -215 | Un +160)

College basketball player props from DraftKings on March 15, 2024. 

NC State vs Virginia Prediction

NC State doesn’t have a deep rotation as is going be on tired legs. Four games in four days is a brutal haul. The good news is that UVA plays at the slowest pace in the entire country. If there’s a style of team you want to face when you’re already gassed, it’s Virginia’s plodding zone.

I backed BC to upset Virginia last night and feel good about my handicapping despite the outcome. I am going to fade the Cavaliers again on Friday. On the whole, NC State was the superior team when they met in the regular season. They are also playing better at the moment and have considerably better weapons on offense.

NC State vs UVA picks:

  • NC State moneyline (+125) – 2.5 units
  • Beekman under 16.5 points (-130) – two units

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

  • ATS: 19-20 (-2.73 units)
  • Moneyline: 3-11 (-10.68 units)
  • Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
  • Player props: 7-3 (+4.93 units)


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