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North Carolina vs Pitt Picks, Predictions, Odds & Props (March 15)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Mar 15, 2024 · 4:40 PM PDT

North Carolina Tar Heels forward Armando Bacot tries to dribble past Pittsburgh Panthers center Federiko Federiko
Dec 30, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Armando Bacot (5) dribbles the ball around Pittsburgh Panthers center Federiko Federiko (33) during the second half at the Petersen Events Center. Pittsburgh won 76-74. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
  • The North Carolina Tar Heels and Pitt Panthers meet in the semifinal of the 2024 ACC Tournament on Friday
  • UNC dominated Pitt on the road in their lone regular-season meeting
  • Get the North Carolina vs Pitt picks, predictions, and player props on March 15

Two wins away from adding an ACC Tournament title to their ACC regular-season title, the North Carolina Tar Heels (26-6, 17-3 ACC, 3-3 neutral, 19-13 ATS) face the Pittsburgh Panthers (22-10, 12-8 ACC, 2-1 neutral, 20-9-3 ATS) on Friday night at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. The first of two ACC semifinals on Friday night, UNC vs Pitt tips off at 7:00 pm ET and will be immediately followed by NC State vs Virginia at 9:30 pm ET.

The Tar Heels, who demolished the Panthers on the road in the regular season, are listed as 7.5-point favorites in the UNC vs Pitt odds on Friday night.

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
North Carolina Tar Heels -7.5 (-100) -290 Over 147.5 (-110)
Pitt Panthers +7.5 (-120) +240 Under 147.5 (-110)

North Carolina is also a -290 moneyline favorite with Pitt coming back as a +240 underdog. The over/under is currently 147.5. Pitt was one of the best over teams in the country this year at 18-12-2, while UNC was a game to the under (15-16-1).

North Carolina residents can take advantage of any of the six NC betting promos listed in the table below and use them on Friday’s UNC vs Pitt semifinal. 

Odds as of March 15 at ESPN Bet. New bettors in NC can claim the ESPN Bet North Carolina promo to wager on the UNC vs Pittsburgh.

North Carolina was on the #3 line in the projected March Madness bracket before the ACC Tournament started. If they’re able to win the ACC Tournament, they would have an excellent chance of grabbing the fourth #1 seed (in addition to Houston, Purdue, and UConn).

Pitt, which joined the ACC in 2013, is still searching for, not just its first ACC Tournament championship, but also its first berth in the ACC title game. With 18 ACC Tournament championships, UNC trails only Duke (22). The Tar Heels’ last title came in 2016.

UNC vs PITT Head-to-Head Stats

UNC Stat Pitt
7th Overall Efficiency 40th
22nd Offensive Efficiency 31st
5th Defensive Efficiency 90th
36.0 (65th) 3P% 35.8 (73rd)
50.3 (174th) 2P% 50.3 (177th)
51.7 (127th) Eff. FG % 51.8 (118th)
14.5 (37th) Turnover % 13.6 (9th)
33.1 (58th) Off. Reb % 31.4 (96th)
76.1 (14th) Def. Reb. % 76.5 (9th)

North Carolina comes into the semis off a 92-67 demolition of Florida State. Four players scored in double-figures, led by senior guard RJ Davis (18 points, three assists). Both Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram finished with ten rebounds and combined for 11 on the offensive end.

YouTube video

UNC won the only regular-season meeting against the Panthers (70-57) in Pittsburgh. After Pitt started the game on a 14-7 run, UNC went on a 12-2 run of its own to take a lead it wouldn’t surrender. Bacot had a team-high 16 points and 10 rebounds for UNC in the win, and the Heels dominated the glass (51 to 41).

Pitt Races Past Wake Forest

Pitt, which eked out a top-four seed (and a double-bye) by a single game over #5 Wake Forest, used the extra rest to their advantage in last night’s quarterfinal matchup with the Demon Deacons, who had taken down Notre Dame on Wednesday. An early 13-2 run propelled Pitt to a 12-point halftime advantage, and another 12-1 run early in the second gave the Panthers an insurmountable 19-point lead.

YouTube video

Ishmael Leggett, who averages just 12.5 PPG, dropped 30 off the bench on 11-of-18 shooting from the field.

Leading scorer Blake Hinson (18.9 PPG) added 20 points, two assists, two blocks, and two steals.  But the 6.8 senior forward had an off night the first time Pitt and UNC met this season, scoring just 11 points on  4-of-16 shooting with four rebounds, one turnover, and no assists, blocks, or steals.

UNC vs PITT Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Armando Bacot (UNC) 12.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) 8.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) OFF OFF
Blake Hinson (PITT) 16.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) 3.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) OFF 2.5 (Ov -100 | Un -140)
Carlton Carrington (PITT) 13.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) 3.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 1.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120)
Cormac Ryan (UNC) 12.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 2.5 (Ov -170 | Un +130) OFF 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -190)
Harrison Ingram (UNC) 11.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) 9.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) 2.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) 1.5 (Ov +135 | Un -175)
Jaland Lowe (PITT) 11.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100) 3.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 4.5 (Ov +130 | Un -170) 0.5 (Ov -245 | Un +180)
RJ Davis (UNC) 20.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 4.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155) 2.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120) 2.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110)

College basketball player props as of March 15 at DraftKings. 

Davis, who averages 21 PPG on the nose, has game-high point total of 20.5 over/under. Hinson leads the Panthers players at 16.5.

Ingram has the highest rebound total at 9.5 followed closely by teammate Bacot at 8.5.

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Prediction

The Tar Heels were positively dominant against the Seminoles last night. While Pitt represents a step up in competition, it’s not a huge leap. UNC is one of the few teams in the country that came overwhelm Pitt with its size and dominate the Panthers on the boards.

I expect a similar outcome to the first game. Pitt might hang around for a half, but UNC’s fast tempo and relentless defense will eventually distance the Panthers.

UNC vs PITT picks:

  • UNC -7.5 (-110)
  • Bacot over 8.5 rebounds (-135)
  • Hinson under 16.5 points (-110)
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Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

  • ATS: 20-21 (-2.84 units)
  • Moneyline: 3-11 (-10.68 units)
  • Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
  • Player props: 9-3 (+5.50 units)


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