Upcoming Match-ups

Odds Open for Oregon-Arizona Game With Wildcats a 5-Point Home Favorite

Blair Johnson

by Blair Johnson in College Basketball

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 10:34 AM PDT

Sean Miller at University of Arizona Press Conference
Sean Miller's Arizona Wildcats are 5-point home favorites against the visiting Oregon Ducks on Saturday (Feb. 22). Photo by Lance Linn (wikimedia commons).
  • Arizona opened as a 5-point favorite at home against Oregon in a Pac-12 showdown Saturday (Feb. 22)
  • The Wildcats are coming off an 89-63 trouncing of Oregon State on Thursday
  • The Ducks will try to rebound in Tucson following a 77-72 loss at Arizona State

The Arizona Wildcats (19-7, 9-4 Pac-12)  opened as a 5-point favorite at home against the Oregon Ducks (20-7, 9-5 Pac-12) this Saturday. Tip time is 9:00 PM ET at the McKale Center. The game will be televised on ESPN.

The Wildcats throttled Oregon State 89-63 Thursday in Tucson, while the Ducks dropped one in Tempe, losing 77-72 to the red-hot Sun Devils.

Oregon Ducks vs. Arizona Wildcats Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Oregon TBD +5 (-105) O 141.0 (-115)
Arizona TBD -5 (-115) U 141.0 (-105)

Odds as of Feb. 21.

Due to Thursday’s respective outcomes, you might expect Sean Miller’s team to be a bigger favorite over Dana Altman’s club. The Ducks won Round 1 in Eugene Jan. 9 in overtime (74-73) but the Wildcats are on a roll, having won six of their last seven.

Meanwhile, the Ducks are scuffling a bit as of late, dropping three of their last five. Remember, this is a team that was ranked No. 4 in the country heading into conference play — but has since gone 9-5 in the Pac-12.

Both teams are well down the list in the National Championship odds, trailing behind West Coast programs like Gonzaga and San Diego State. Let’s break this one down and make a prediction.

Bearing Down

I suspect this line will increase as sharps dig into what UA has been doing the last month. Watch the Wildcats’ dismantling of the Beavs Thursday.

YouTube video

Arizona got to the foul line 13 more times (28 vs. 15) than Oregon State and had 12 fewer turnovers (20 vs. 8). Josh Green led the way with 18 points for the home team. “My main goal coming into the game was just try my hardest on defense, bring energy to the team and do all the dirty work and energize,” said Green, who also had four steals. If that mentality continues Saturday from a team perspective, Oregon will have its work cut out.

If you throw out an inscrutable loss to UCLA two weeks ago at home and a one-point loss to in-state rival ASU on the road (a game they led by 21 at one point), ‘Zona’s only two other losses were to the Oregon schools on the road. The Wildcats avenged one of those Thursday. And don’t be surprised if they turn the trick again over the weekend.

Sitting Ducks

Meanwhile, Oregon has lost three straight games away from Matthew Knight Arena, including Thursday’s tilt against Sparky.

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Their best player, Payton Pritchard, fouled out with two minutes left, virtually eliminating any chance of a late rally. And while the Sun Devils only shot 11-of-21 from the foul line, the Ducks weren’t much better, going 12-of-19. Those types of numbers aren’t going to get it done in a hyper-competitive Pac-12, where no team has less than four conference losses.

Oregon is No. 8 in offense adjusted efficiency according to KenPom — but a ghastly No. 79 in defense adjusted efficiency. Arizona is rated No. 16 and No. 23, respectively — a bit more manageable. I expect that consistency to shine through for the home team Saturday.

The Last Meeting

Then, there’s the revenge factor.

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Nico Mannion had 20 points in that Jan. 9 loss in Eugene. And ‘Zona will be hungry for payback. Perhaps Miller said it best following Thursday’s rout. “The game on Saturday is like March Madness,” Miller said.

And while a win over Oregon Saturday wouldn’t lock up anything (Colorado still holds a half-game lead over ‘Zona in the conference standings), it would go a long way toward turning a new leaf and asserting UA possibly the class of the Pac-12.

Pick: Arizona -5 (-115)

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