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Purdue vs Northwestern Picks and Odds (Feb. 12)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Updated Feb 11, 2023 · 6:21 PM PST

Braden Smith shoots; Purdue Boilermakers
Feb 4, 2023; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers guard Jalen Hood-Schifino (1) defends in the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
  • No. 1 Purdue and Northwestern meet in a Big Ten game Sunday, February 8.
  • Purdue is a 5.5-point road favorite over Northwestern at Welsh-Ryan Arena.
  • Read below for Purdue vs Northwestern odds, analysis and prediction.

No. 1 Purdue (22-2, 12-2 Big Ten) is a 5.5-point road favorite against Northwestern in a Big Ten game Sunday at 2 pm ET. The Boilermakers rebounded from their second loss of the season with an 87-73 home victory over Iowa on Thursday.

Northwestern (17-7, 8-5 Big Ten) has won five of its last seven after beating Ohio State on Thursday. The Wildcats, off to the second-best start in school history, are in a four-way tie for second place in the Big Ten.

Purdue vs Northwestern Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Purdue Boilermakers -5.5 (-102) -210 Over 131.5 (-110)
Northwestern Wildcats +5.5 (-120) +172 Under 131.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel on February 11th; see the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code ahead of tip off

Purdue is a 5.5-point favorite at Northwestern in a series the Boilermakers have dominated (at least straight up) for the last nine seasons. Purdue is 11-0 SU but 6-4-1 ATS since 2015 in a series that typically is played once a season because of the depth of the Big Ten.


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The Wildcats are 2-1-1 ATS in the last four after pushing as a six-point home underdog last season. The Boilermakers are 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 in the last five in Evanston.

Northwestern is 14-10 ATS this season, 8-5 in Big Ten games. Purdue is 11-12-2 ATS this season, 1-3-1 as a road favorite. The Boilermakers are 11-14 against the over, and Northwestern is 10-14 in that spot.

Purdue Production Goes Beyond Edey

Head coach Matt Painter has the best player in the country and options behind him. Michigan State played Wooden Award favorite Zach Edey straight up two weeks ago, and Edey had 38 points and 13 rebounds in the Boilermakers’ 77-61 victory.

Iowa took a different tack when the teams met Thursday, sending a second defender at Edey on most possessions. So “neglected” freshman guard Braden Smith had a career-high 24 points in an 87-73 home win.


Edey (22.1 points, 13. rebounds) had a 14/14 double-double against Iowa,  his19th double-double of the season despite taking only seven shots from the field. The freshman backcourt of 6’4″ off guard Fletcher Loyer (12.6 points) and 6′ point Smith (9.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.4 assists) have provided steady support, and 6’10” Caleb Furst (5.3 rebounds) is a presence inside.

Smith’s play against Iowa was the second unexpected contribution in three games — reserve wing Mason Gillis had a career-high 29 points in a win over Penn State on Feb. 1.

Purdue does not beat itself. The Boilers lead Division I with a plus-11.6 rebound margin, almost two rebounds more than second-place UMass Lowell, and are in top top 25 in assist/turnover ratio while committing only 11 turnovers per game.

Buie, Audige Pace Northwestern Attack

Due respect to the above-mentioned Purdue backcourt and the groups Michigan and Indiana, but Northwestern has a strong case that senior guards Boo Buie and Chase Audige are the most efficient two-way pair in the Big Ten.

Buie (16.2 points, 4.5 assists, 42 threes) and Audige (15.1 points, 3.0 assists, 49 threes) are the Wildcats’ leading scorers in an offense that is built to free them off high screens. Audige averages 2.5 steals per game, fifth in Division I, and was named to the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year watch list.

Big men 6’9″ Robbie Beran (8.7 points, 5.0 rebounds) and 7′ Matthew Nicholson (5.9 rebounds) set picks and clear the boards for a team that plays at a more deliberate tempo than most.

6’6″ guard Brooks Barnhizer provided a boost off the bench in a 69-63 victory at Ohio State on Thursday, scoring a career-high 19 points with four of the Wildcats’ 12 three-pointers, their season high in a Big Ten game.

Their perimeter defense limited the Buckeyes to one of 14 three-point shooting, and Buie (19 points) had his 18th straight double-figure scoring game.

Purdue vs Northwestern Prediction

Purdue has gotten everyone’s best shot this season, and this will be no exception. While the Wildcats, like the rest of the nation, have no answer for Edey, their senior guards match up well here against the Boilers’ freshman backcourt.

This is Purdue’s best team since Glenn Robinson took it to the 1994 Elite Eight as No. 1 seed in the Southeast Regional, and this is the Wildcats’ best recent unit, too. The Boilermakers have won their last five at Northwestern, and there is not a lot to suggest things will change here.

Pick: Purdue -5.5 (-102)

Season CBK: 34-21 ATS


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