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Purdue vs UConn Predictions, Player Props & Picks for Nat’l Championship

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Apr 8, 2024 · 11:39 AM PDT

Connecticut Huskies guard Stephon Castle reaches for a loose ball
Mar 30, 2024; Boston, MA, USA; Connecticut Huskies guard Stephon Castle (5) grabs a loose ball against the Illinois Fighting Illini in the finals of the East Regional of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
  • Purdue and UConn will meet for the 2024 national championship tonight in Glendale, AZ
  • UConn opened as a 5.5-point favorite but the line has grown to Huskies -7
  • See the Purdue vs UConn predictions, player props, and picks for Monday’s NCAA Tournament championship game

The 2024 NCAA Tournament reaches its crescendo tonight with the national championship game between the Midwest #1 Purdue Boilermakers (34-4, 21-15-2 ATS) and East #1 UConn Huskies (36-3, 27-12 ATS).

Purdue vs UConn tips off at 9:20 pm ET/6:20 pm PT at State Farm Arena in Glendale, AZ. The Huskies opened as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday night, and the Purdue vs UConn odds have moved steadily in their favor over the past 36 hours.

Purdue vs UConn Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Purdue Boilermakers +7 (-120) +245 O 145.5 (-110)
UConn Huskies -7 (-100) -305 U 145.5 (-110)

UConn is now a seven-point favorite and -305 on the moneyline with Purdue coming back at +245 to win, after opening at +198. The game total has also been on the move; it opened at 148.5 but has come down a full three points to 145.5.

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Odds as of April 8 at DraftKings. See the latest sportsbook promotions for March Madness.

UConn opened as a +1380 bet to repeat as national champions after last year’s title game, while Purdue was +2120 in the 2024 March Madness championship odds after falling to #16 Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament. By the time Selection Sunday rolled around, though, UConn was the +376 betting favorite. Purdue entered March Madness as the third-favorite at +693, trailing South #1 Houston.

UConn vs Purdue Public-Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting splits for tonight’s championship game show the ATS money almost evenly split. Purdue is currently getting 55% of ATS handle on 54% of ATS bets; UConn is getting 45% of handle on 46% of tickets now that the line has grown.

The public is betting the over on the reduced total. As of 10:00 am ET, 80% of game-total handle was on over 145.5, indicating the total may climb back up incrementally before tip-off.

Purdue vs UConn Betting Trends

Stunningly, both teams are 5-0 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament entering the title game, despite staring down some massive spreads.

Purdue covered by a single point in its first-round matchup with #16 Grambling State (78-50 as 27-point chalk) and then obliterated the number in its second-round matchup with #8 Utah State (106-67 as 11.5-point favorites). A big second half allowed the Boilermakers to cover against #5 Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 (80-68 as 4.5-point favorites) and a late surge did the same against #2 Tennessee in the Elite Eight (72-66 as three-point chalk).

In the Final Four against #11 NC State, Purdue went on a 14-1 run in the final ten minutes to run away with a 63-50 victory as 9.5-point favorites.

Unanimous national player of the year Zach Edey (24.9 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 2.3 BPG) has led Purdue in scoring and rebounding in all five tournament games, averaging 28.0 PPG and 15.4 RPG during March Madness.

YouTube video

UConn, which won all six of its tournament games last season by at least 13 points and its first four this season by at least 17, found itself in a dogfight against #4 Alabama in the Final Four, leading 44-40 at halftime as ten-point favorites. But a huge second half allowed the Huskies to cruise to an 86-72 win, covering their 11th straight NCAA Tournament game.

Unlike Purdue, four different UConn players have led their team in scoring during March Madness. Most recently, freshman Stephon Castle dropped a team-high 21 against Alabama. But it’s UConn’s depth that is truly terrifying. All five of Husky starters scored at least 12 points against the Tide and all five are averaging at least 11.0 PPG this season, led by 14.9 from senior guard Tristen Newton.

PUR vs CONN Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Alex Karaban (CONN) 12.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 4.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) OFF 1.5 (Ov -180 | Un +140)
Braden Smith (PUR) 10.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) 5.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) 6.5 (Ov  +105 | Un -145) 1.5 (Ov +150 | Un -200)
Cam Spencer (CONN) 13.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +105) 3.5 (Ov  -160 | Un +120) 2.5 (Ov +130 | Un -170)
Donovan Clingan (CONN) 13.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 7.5 (Ov -145 | Un +105) OFF OFF
Fletcher Loyer (PUR) 9.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) 2.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 2.5 (Ov  +140 | Un -180) 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135)
Lance Jones (PUR) 10.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) 3.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) OFF 1.5 (Ov -175 | Un +135)
Stephon Castle (CONN) 10.5 (Ov -145 | Un +105) 4.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) 2.5 (Ov  -110 | Un -130) 0.5 (Ov -145 | Un +105)
Tristen Newtson (CONN) 15.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 5.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) 5.5 (Ov  -155 | Un +115) 2.5 (Ov +150 | Un -200)
Zach Edey (PUR) 24.5 (Ov +110 | Un -150) 12.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) OFF OFF

College basketball player props from DraftKings on April 8. 

Edey leads the player props with a point total of 24.5 and a rebound total of 12.5, both slightly below his season averages. Newton (15.5 O/U) has the highest total among the UConn players while 7’2 sophomore center Donovan Clingan has the highest rebound total at 7.5.

Purdue vs UConn Prediction

It’s not a surprise to me that this line moved in UConn’s favor. Not only have the Huskies looked like men against boys throughout the vast majority of the past two seasons, they also matchup well against Purdue. Clingan is one of the few players in the nation that has the size and athleticism to really compete with Edey in the post.

While Purdue’s guards have done an exceptional job this season of knocking down open shots, there is no question which backcourt is superior. Castle is a future lottery pick and the 6’5 Newton is likely to hear his name called in June as well.

The line is still as low as 6.5 at certain sportsbooks, and bettors can get UConn -3.5 in the first-half. As much respect as I have for Edey at the college level, this is barely a college team he’s going up against on Monday night. I expect a big first-half statement from the expertly coached, incredibly talented Huskies.

PUR vs CONN picks:

  • UConn first half -3.5 (-110) at FanDuel
  • Edey under 24.5 points (-130) at ESPN Bet
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