Upcoming Match-ups

Saint Louis vs Dayton Picks and Odds

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Feb 22, 2021 · 9:11 AM UTC

Javonte Perkins dribbling
Saint Louis' Javonte Perkins brings the ball down the court during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Fordham Sunday, Jan. 26, 2020, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
  • Saint Louis (11-3, 4-2 Atlantic 10) battles Dayton (11-7, 7-6 Atlantic 10) on Friday, Feb. 19, at 7:00 pm ET
  • The Flyers have lost three of four, but they beat the Billikens, 76-71, back on Jan. 26
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

The Dayton Flyers are in a bit of a slide, losing three of its past four, but they’ll aim to get back to their winning ways on Friday, Feb. 19 against Saint Louis (tip off at 7:00 pm ET). Dayton bested Saint Louis, 76-71, back on Jan. 26 when these Atlantic 10 foes last met.

Here’s how oddsmakers view this one.

Saint Louis vs Dayton Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Saint Louis N/A -5.5 (-110) Over 137 (-108)
Dayton N/A +5.5 (-110) Under 137 (-112)

Odds as of Feb. 18th at FanDuel.

How They’ve Fared Recently

Saint Louis is one of those teams that we really wish we could’ve seen more from this season, but some COVID-19 cancellations have forced the Billikens’ season to be shortened. So as it stands, they’ve only lost three games, with a 4-2 record against KenPom top-100 teams.

The Billikens have four wins in a row, three of which have come by double digits. They’re a well balanced bunch, ranking in the top 50 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

They’re a great second chance team, ranking 14th in NCAA Division I in offensive rebound rate (35.2 percent). They’re also very unselfish, ranking ninth in assist rate (63.8 percent).

Dayton suffered a hard luck double-overtime loss to Rhode Island in its most recent game. The Flyers led by 18 with less than 10 minutes left in regulation, but the lead whittled away. They held lead in both overtimes, too.

Two and a half weeks prior, Dayton beat Rhode Island at home by 11. So we know what they’re capable of. But they commit a lot of dumb mistakes (344th in D-I in non-steal turnover rate, 13.4 percent) and that can sometimes be their downfall.

ATS Analysis

Saint Louis is 9-5 against the spread this season, but they’re just 1-2 ATS on the road. Quite unproven in that regard. The Billikens have covered in three of their past four though, and seen the under hit in every game of that span.

Dayton is 10-8 ATS overall, with a 5-5 ATS mark at home. The Flyers have won four of their past six ATS, and five of their past six games have hit the over.

Head-to-Head Matchup

In the past three seasons (including this one), Dayton has won four of the six head-to-head matchups in straight up fashion, while Saint Louis has covered in four of six ATS. This season, though, it was the Flyers winning straight up, 76-71, and covering as nine-point underdogs (the fourth consecutive underdog ATS win in this matchup).

YouTube video

In that game, played on Jan. 26, Dayton shot nearly twice as well from 3-pt. range (44.4 percent vs. Saint Louis’s 23.1 percent) and sank 18-of-25 foul shots, thanks to Saint Louis’s 23 personal fouls.

More importantly, Dayton committed just 11 turnovers (six of which were non-steal turnovers). That’s a good sign, but even a repeat performance on the turnover front likely won’t be enough to offset a reduced foul count from Saint Louis, assuming they can stay disciplined.

That’s why we like the Billikens to stay hot with a fifth-straight win and cover this spread against the Flyers.

Pick: Saint Louis -5.5 (-110)

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