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Santa Clara vs Saint Mary’s Odds & Predictions for WCC Tournament (March 11)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Mar 12, 2024 · 10:52 AM PDT

Saint Mary's Gaels guard Aidan Mahaney and forward Josh Jefferson chest-bumping
March 6, 2023; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Saint Mary's Gaels guard Aidan Mahaney (20) and forward Josh Jefferson (5) celebrate against the Brigham Young Cougars during the first half in the semifinals of the WCC Basketball Championships at Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
  • The top-seeded Saint Mary’s Gaels face the #4 Santa Clara Broncos in the WCC semifinals today
  • Saint Mary’s had a 16-game win streak snapped (by Gonzaga) last time out
  • See the Santa Clara vs Saint Mary’s odds, picks and player props for Monday’s game in Las Vegas

Looking to put a bow on a near-perfect season in the West Coast Conference, the Saint Mary’s Gaels (24-7, 15-1 WCC, 1-2 neutral, 17-14 ATS) face the Santa Clara Broncos (20-12, 10-6 WCC, 4-2 neutral, 18-12-2 ATS) in the semifinals of the WCC Tournament on Monday night at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas at 6:00 pm PT/9:00 pm ET.

The first of two semis tonight (immediately followed by Gonzaga vs San Francisco), the Santa Clara vs Saint Mary’s odds heavily favor the Gaels.

Santa Clara vs Saint Mary’s Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Santa Clara Broncos +11.5 (-115) +500 Over 135.5 (-115)
Saint Mary’s Gaels -11.5 (-105) -700 Under 135.5 (-105)

Saint Mary’s is laying 11.5 points to Santa Clara on Monday night. Already 2-0 against the Broncos this season, Saint Mary’s is also a prohibitively short -700 favorite on the moneyline with Santa Clara coming back at +500 to pull what would be a stunning upset.

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Odds as of March 11 at ESPN Bet. Download the ESPN Bet app in NC today!

Saint Mary’s was listed as a #5 seed in the most-recent projected March Madness bracket and will be among the 68-team field regardless of what happens tonight. That being said, they would likely gain a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament if they’re able to win their first WCC crown since 2019.

Santa Clara needs a miracle run to the WCC Tournament title to make its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1996.

Saint Mary’s Defeats Santa Clara Twice in Regular Season

The Gaels went 2-0 against the Broncos in the regular season, and the outcomes were never in doubt. Saint Mary’s absolutely blasted Santa Clara 73-49 on the road on Jan. 13; the final score of the rematch in Moraga was much closer (82-77) but Saint Mary’s led by 22 at halftime and had it in cruise control for much of the second half.

Aidan Mahaney led the Gaels with 18 in the first game while Augustas Marciulionis had a team-high 20 in the second.

YouTube video

Both wins were part of a two-month, 16-game win streak for the Gaels from Dec. 29 to Feb. 29. That streak came to an end in Saint Mary’s final game of the regular season, falling 70-57 to Gonzaga at home and dropping to 15-1 in WCC play in the process.

Saint Mary’s has lost to Gonzaga in the each of the last two WCC Tournament championship games (and five of the last eight). Only the Gaels’ 2019 WCC Tournament title has interrupted Gonzaga’s run of 10 championships in 11 years.

Excluding the abbreviated 2020-21 season, Santa Clara has recorded a fourth straight 20-win campaign. This season was especially memorable as it included Santa Clara’s first win over Gonzaga since 2011. The Broncos’ 77-76 home victory over the Zags on Jan. 11 stopped a run of 26 straight victories by the Bulldogs.

YouTube video

The Broncos also secured two Power 6 victories, beating Oregon (88-82 neutral) and Washington State (69-61 neutral) before conference play began.

They were briefly in KenPom’s top 100 (98th) after the win over Oregon but dropped out immediately after getting routed 85-56 by Ohio State next time out. They are currently 114th in overall efficiency, 92 spots below the Gaels (22nd). Junior guard Adama Bal leads the team in scoring (14.8 PPG) and assists (3.1 APG).

The Broncos do an admirable job on the offensive glass, sitting 29th out of 362 DI teams in offensive-rebound percentage (34.5%). But they are facing a Saint Mary’s team that is second in the nation in defensive-rebound percentage (77.4%).

Santa Clara vs Saint Mary’s Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Aidan Mahaney (SM) 15.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 3.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) 2.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) 2.5 (Ov -145 | Un +105)
Alex Ducas (SM) 11.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 7.5 (Ov +105 | Un -145) OFF 2.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155)
Augustas Marciulionis (SM) 14.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 3.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100) 2.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) 1.5 (Ov +150 | Un -200)
Mitchell Saxen (SM) 12.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 6.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100) OFF OFF

College basketball player props as of March 11 at DraftKings. 

Only Gaels players are listed in the player props for Santa Clara vs Saint Mary’s with leading scorer Aidan Mahaney leading the way at 15.5 O/U. Curiously, guard Alex Ducas (9.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG) has the highest rebound total at 7.5, not center and leading rebounder Mitchell Saxen (11.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG).

Saint Mary’s vs Santa Clara Prediction

This is a bad matchup for the Broncos, as both regular-season meetings showed. Saint Mary’s does a near-perfect job of countering what Santa Clara does well. At the same time, Saint Mary’s plays at a sluggish pace (358th in tempo) and has had excellent three-point luck (defensively). The Gaels are holding teams to just 29.4% from three, which is likely to regress closer to the mean.

Santa Clara vs Saint Mary’s picks

  • Santa Clara +11.5 (-110)
  • Mitchell Saxen over 6.5 rebounds (-140)
  • Alex Ducas under 7.5 rebounds (-140)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

  • ATS: 16-18 (-3.48 units)
  • Moneyline: 2-9 (-9.48 units)
  • Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
  • Player props: 2-2 (+0.78 units)
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