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UConn vs Indiana Odds, Spread, Picks & Predictions

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Nov 19, 2023 · 11:36 AM PST

UConn coach Dan Hurley talking to his players on the sideline
Nov 11, 2023; Hartford, Connecticut, USA; UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley talks with forward Jaylin Stewart (3), forward Alex Karaban (11), center Donovan Clingan (32) and guard Cam Spencer (12) from the sideline as they take on the Stonehill Skyhawks at XL Center. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
  • Reigning national champion UConn battles Indiana at MSG on Sunday afternoon
  • Both teams are 3-0 but neither has played a top-100 opponent
  • See the UConn vs Indiana odds, picks, and predictions for Nov. 19

The #5 Connecticut Huskies (3-0, 0-0 neutral, 2-1 ATS) travel a few hours down the road to New York this afternoon to face the Indiana Hoosiers (3-0, 0-0 neutral, 0-3 ATS) at Madison Square Garden. Tip-off between this pair of undefeated teams is scheduled for 1:00 pm ET. ESPN will have the broadcast.

While Indiana hasn’t suffered a blemish on its record yet this season, oddsmakers haven’t been impressed with its trio of single-digit wins over low-major competition. The Huskies, meanwhile, have a 39-point average margin of victory and, despite ample roster turnover from last year’s title-winning team, appear poised for another deep March run.

Viewed as a semi-home game for the Huskies, the UConn vs Indiana odds for Sunday’s matinee at MSG heavily favor the reigning champs.

UConn vs Indiana Odds

Team Point Spread Moneyline Total
UConn Huskies -12.5 (-110) -900 O 144.5 (-105)
Indiana Hoosiers +12.5 (-110) +600 U 144.5 (-115)

Sunday’s college basketball odds list Dan Hurley’s Huskies as a 12.5-point favorite over Mike Woodson’s Hoosiers. Indiana is a massive +600 longshot to win straight-up, while the game total is sitting at 144.5.

 

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The latest odds to win March Madness show UConn among the top-ten favorites at +1767 on average. Indiana (+8500) is narrowly inside the top-50 favorites. The last team to repeat as national champions was the Florida Gators in 2006 and 2007. UConn has the most national championships in since 1999 with five. The storied Indiana program hasn’t won the title since 1987.

UConn’s Karaban, Newton, Clingan Emerging as Stars

Some pundits were predicting a sizable drop off for UConn this season after losing the team’s two leading scorers – Adama Sanogo (17.2 PPG, 7.7 RPG) and Jordan Hawkins (16.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG) – to the NBA. After all, no other member of last year’s championship-winning team averaged more than 10.1 PPG. But with more room to grow, forward Alex Karaban and guard Tristen Newton are doing just that. The 6’8 sophomore Karaban leads the team with 17.0 PPG on 65.4% shooting from the field, including 38.5% from three. He’s only missed one two-point shot all season. Newton, meanwhile, has upped his scoring by over five points per game in the early going (from 10.1 to 15.3 PPG) while grabbing a team-high 7.3 rebounds and dishing out 4.7 assists per game.

It’s 7’2 sophomore Donovan Clingan who is projected as the best of all. Playing just 18.0 MPG through three games, the UConn center ias averaging 15.0 PPG and 6.7 RPG along with 2.7 blocks. Clingan is currently top-five in the Wooden Award odds, though a ways behind favorite and reigning-winner Zach Edey of Purdue.

Of course, UConn’s level of competition this season has been extremely low compared to what the Huskies will face the rest of the way. UConn’s first three opponents – Northern Arizona, Stonehill, and Mississippi Valley State – all rate 242nd or lower at KenPom. The Huskies covered to massive spreads to start the season, beating Northern Arizona by 43 as 26.5-point favorites (92-52) and Stonehill by 40 as 38-point favorites (107-67), but suffered their first ATS loss of the season on Tuesday, winning by 34 against Mississippi Valley State *87-53) as preposterous 45.5-point chalk.

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Bart Torvik  currently rates UConn 5th in the nation, 12th on offense and 7th on defense, compared to Indiana in 46th. But the analytics site only projects a six point win today (73-67). KenPom, meanwhile, has UConn 4th and Indiana down in 73rd, and projects a 12-point UConn win.

Indiana Also Dealing with Significant Roster Turnover

ust like UConn, Indiana also lost its two leading scorers to the NBA: Trayce Jackson-Davis (Golden State Warriors) and Jalen Hood-Schifino (LA Lakers). Unlike UConn, they’re currently led by a transfer, Oregon’s Kel’el Ware. The seven-footer, who only played 15.8 minutes per game in his freshman season with Oregon, has poured in 18.3 PPG while adding 10.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, two blocks, and a steal. He’s also showed excellent discipline under the hoop, with just five fouls in total in nearly 100 minutes of playing time so far.

Ware is paired in the frontcourt with IU’s own promising freshman, 6’8 forward Mackenzie Mgbako, who was 9th on ESPN’s recruiting rankings, along with 6’9 sophomore Malik Reneau, who was 23rd last year. Reneau has shown real growth in his second season in Bloomington, going from 6.1 to 15.0 PPG while shooting at a higher percentage from the field (55.3 to 58.1%).

Ball-handling responsibility for Mike Woodson’s team lies with a pair of seniors: Xavier Johnson (14.0 PPG, 2.3 APG) and Trey Galloway (12.0 PPG, 3.7 APG).

Indiana has yet to cover a spread this year. Faced with double-digit point spreads in all three games, Indiana beat Florida Gulf Coast by six (69-63), Army by eight (72-64), and Wright State by nine (89-80), all at home.

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Unlike UConn, two of IU’s opponents (Wright State and FGCU) rate in the top-200 at KenPom, sitting 155th and 185th respectively.

With Jackson-Davis leading the way, Indiana went 23-12 last season, earning a #4 seed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. After beating #13 Kent State (71-60) they bowed out to #8 Miami (85-69), a team that would go onto the Final Four.

UConn vs Indiana Prediction

There is a lot to like about Hurley’s re-tooled UConn roster. They have a decent level of continuity for a national-championship winner plus future NBA talent coming in. Against smaller teams, the Huskies are apt to dominate the glass and run up the score. That’s going to be harder against the big-bodied Hoosiers, though. Ware, Mgbako, and Reneau stand a decent chance of keeping UConn – which is second in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage – off the boards, and if UConn is getting the second chances it’s used to, covering a 12.5-point spread is going to be difficult.

UConn vs Indiana pick: Indiana +12.5 (-110)

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