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UMBC vs Vermont Odds and Picks for America East Championship Game

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Mar 11, 2022 · 6:41 PM PST

Ben Shungu dribbling
Vermont guard Ben Shungu (24) drives to the basket during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Maryland, Saturday, Nov. 13, 2021, in College Park, Md. (AP Photo/Terrance Williams)
  • Vermont is a 15-point favorite over UMBC in the America East championship game
  • Vermont has won seven straight and 21 of its last 22
  • Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

Regular-season champion Vermont (27-5) is a 15-point home favorite over UMBC in the America East championship game at 11am ET Saturday on ESPN2. The Catamounts have won three of the last five America East tournaments.

Second-seed UMBC (18-13) has won its last five games since a 27-point loss at Vermont on Feb. 19. The teams will meet in the title game for the third time in the last five seasons.

UMBC vs Vermont Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
UMBC Retrievers +890 +15 (-110) Over 142.5 (-110)
Vermont Catamounts -1700 -15 (-110) Under 142.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel on March 11

Vermont is a 15-point favorite over UMBC with the total set at 142.5, almost exactly the same as in the regular-season games between the two. Vermont is -1700 on the moneyline, meaning the Catamounts have a 94.4% implied win probability.

The Retrievers are +890 on the moneyline, which gives them a 10.1 % implied win probability.


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Vermont Betting Outlook

Vermont improved to 16-0 at home with blowout wins against NJIT (98-59) and Binghamton (74-42) in the first two rounds of the America East tournament, both games in Burlington.

The Catamounts are one of 15 Division I teams undefeated at home, but no one in America East seems to need the home court less. They have won 18 of 19 league games by double figures, and their only loss was 75-74 at Hartford Feb. 14 when two time conference Player of Year Ryan Davis was out with a back injury.

Davis had 19 points and three rebounds and was needed for only 22 minutes against Binghamton, giving him plenty of time to recover before the title game Saturday. Ben Shungu, a first-team all-league guard, had 23 points.

The Catamounts, one of the best shooting teams in Division I, shot 59.7% from the field goal against NJIT and 49.1% against Binghamton, jumping from 14th to seventh in Division at 49.02% after the Binghamton game.  They have made 23-of-53 3-pointers in the tourney.

Shungu has 38 points in the first two tournament games and Davis has 32 in 41 minutes.

It is hard to argue with Vermont’s numbers. Their plus 6.2-rebound margin is 26th in Division and their plus-13.9 scoring average is eighth. Their top five scorers are shooting at least 45 percent, and their bench includes Aaron Deloney, the AE Sixth Man of the Year.

UMBC vs Vermont This Season

Vermont had no trouble with the UMBC defense in the two regular-season games.  The Catamounts shot 53.3% from the field in the 86-69 road victory Jan. 15 and 54.1% in the 86-59 home win Feb. 15, making 25-of-59 threes (42.4%) with a plus-8.5 rebound margin.

Davis had 39 points and 13 rebounds in the two games and Shungu had 28. The Catamounts had a season-high 24 assists in the home win.

UMBC Betting Outlook

The Retrievers have won 12 of their last 15 and are 12-4 since forward Nathan Johnson joined the starting lineup in mid-January after a 1-8 stretch.

UMBC blew out Hartford 80-60 in the second half after sneaking past UMass Lowell 93-85 in overtime in the quarterfinals.

Leading scorer Keondre Kennedy (15.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists) has 28 in the first two tournament games while making 5-of-8 three-pointers. Darnell Rogers (11.8 points) had 23 against UMass Lowell, which had the ball at the end of regulation but could not get off a shot.

UMBC reserve 6’9 forward Szymon Wojcik has factored heavily in the Retrievers’ five-game winning streak.

Wojcik had 19 points and nine rebounds off the bench in the lopsided win over Hartford, mixing in two 3-pointers with several dunks after beating the defense down the floor. He is averaging 13.8 points in the last five and 17 in the quarters against UMass Lowell.

Wojcik had a season-high 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting in the 86-69 home loss to Vermont on Jan. 15 but had only two points in nine minutes in the recent 86-59 loss.

Recent Head-to-Head Betting Trends

Vermont are 6-2 straight up and 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings, decisively winning and covering both this season. The Catamounts are 10-4 ATS at home this season have won three of the last four at home in the series, 2-2 ATS.

The teams met  three straight years in  tournament in 2018-20. UMBC beat the top-seeded Catamounts 65-62 as No. 2 seed in 2018, the springboard to their upset of No. 1 NCAA seed Virginia. Vermont beat the Retrievers 66-49 in the 2019 finals and  81-74 in the 2020 semifinals, days before the NCAA Tournament was canceled because of COVID-19.

The last two meetings in the America East tournament in Vermont have gone under the total but the last four regular-season games have gone over.

Vermont is 5-2 ATS during its seven-game winning streak. The4 Catamounts are 4-5 ATS in their last nine at home.

UMBC is 5-0 straight up and ATS in its last five and 6-1 straight up and ATS in their last seven since a two-game losing streak in mid-February. The Retrievers’ 80-60 was under the 147-point total, but their previous six games were over.

UMBC vs Vermont Prediction

Vermont is the class of the league and has been for much of the last decade while playing in six of the last seven America East title games.

UMBC has not been able to keep this season, but UMBC has played better since its lineup change and has the “x” factor in Wojcik. This is too many points to pass up. UMBC is the play here.

The pick: UMBC +15 (-110)

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