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Virginia vs Florida State Odds, Lines, and Spread

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Feb 14, 2021 · 6:16 PM PST

Tony Bennett pointing
Virginia coach Tony Bennett calls a play during the team's NCAA college basketball game against North Carolina on Saturday, Feb. 13, 2021, in Charlottesville, Va. (Andrew Shurtleff/The Daily Progress via AP, Pool)
  • #9 Virginia (10-5, 5-3 ACC) battles #17 Florida State (8-3, 4-2 ACC) on Monday, Feb. 15, at 7pm ET
  • The Cavaliers have won 11 of 12, while the Seminoles have had a pair of shaky outings the last two games
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

The #9 Virginia Cavaliers are winners in 11 of their past 12, and they’ll try to keep that rolling on Monday, Feb. 15 when they hit the road to face the #17 Florida State Seminoles at 7pm ET. Florida State has not been at its best of late, but they haven’t faltered at home since Dec. 19 (their only home loss of the season).

Here’s a look at the odds for Monday, which present Virginia as the intriguing slight underdog:

Virginia vs Florida State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Virginia +1 (-110) N/A Over 130 (-110)
Florida State -1 (-110) N/A Under 130 (-110)

Odds as of Feb. 14th, 2020 at FanDuel

How They’ve Fared Recently

Virginia has won all four of its games this month, including Saturday’s 60-48 win over North Carolina. Given that the Tar Heels rank 43rd in KenPom, that is the Cavaliers’ highest-ranked opponent they’ve beaten all season. To win by a double-digit margin is icing on the cake.

If you watch enough college basketball, you learn that Virginia has mastered a slow, methodical approach to offense that forces a quality-over-quantity approach to possessions. They’ve certainly had plenty of quality to speak of, ranking sixth in NCAA Division I in three hugely important categories: effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and free throw percentage.

Combined with the 11th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency, and you’re looking at a scary good squad. That’s why Virginia has lost just once since Dec. 27.

On the other side we have the Seminoles, who’ve missed some chunks of time due to COVID-19 protocols. On Saturday they played Wake Forest, which marked their first game since Jan. 30, when they lost by 11 on the road against Georgia Tech.

Despite the layoff, Florida State defeated Wake Forest at home, but they required overtime to pull off the win against KenPom’s 110th-ranked team. Encouragingly, they shot 48% from deep and had 17 assists as a team. Discouragingly, they let their opponent do the exact same thing.

ATS Analysis

Virginia is 10-7-1 against the spread this season, which includes a 4-1-1 ATS record on the road. The Cavaliers are a mundane 2-2-1 ATS in their past five games, and they’ve seen the under hit in four of those five matchups.

Florida State is 8-6 ATS overall, with a 7-4 ATS record at home. The Seminoles have dropped their past two games, which halted a five-game ATS win streak they’d had going before that. Florida State has seen the over hit in eight of 14 games, including six of its past eight.

Head-to-Head Matchup

In four meetings over the previous two seasons, Virginia has covered in three of four games, while both teams have won twice in straight up fashion. Last year, Virginia covered both games: first as 6.5-point underdogs, then again as two-point underdogs.

YouTube video

Virginia is the underdog again, at least on paper, but should they be? We’re talking about a much hotter team, which is ranked higher and hasn’t had any COVID-related interruptions. Sure, the Seminoles are at home, but the Cavaliers have handled themselves just fine on the road this year.

We like the “underdog” Virginia in this one.

Pick: Virginia +1 (-110)

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