- Towson is an 18.5-point favorite over William & Mary on Thursday
- William & Mary is 2-7 in its last nine, 6-3 ATS
- Read below for analysis and a betting prediction
Towson (17-7, 8-3 Colonial) is an 18.5-point home favorite over William & Mary in a Colonial Athletic Association game at 5pm ET Thursday on the CBS Sports Network. The Tigers had won eight of nine before an upset loss at Northeastern the last time out.
William & Mary (5-19, 4-7) has lost seven of its last nine, including a 91-67 home thrashing by Towson on Jan. 17 during that stretch.
William & Mary vs Towson Odds
|William & Mary Tribe||+950||+18.5 (-110)||Over 138.5 (-110)|
|Towson Tigers||-2000||-18.5 (-110)||Under 138.5 (-110)|
Odds from BetMGM on Feb. 9.
Towson is an 18.5-point favorite over William & Mary with the total set at 138.5. Towson is -2000 on the moneyline, which means it has a 95.2% implied with probability. At +950 on the moneyline, William & Mary has a 9.5% implied win probability.
Towson is not currently factored into the Final Four odds, but has climbed to 89th in adjusted efficiency at KenPom, 98th at Torvik, and 87th in the NET rankings. Oddsmakers may not be able to ignore them for too much longer.
Tigers, Tribe in a Rematch
The first meeting was a mismatch, when Towson posted its most lopsided CAA victory of the season, 91-68 in Williamsburg, Va., on Jan. 17. The Tigers scored the first nine points and never trailed, expanding their leads to 32-16, with seven minutes remaining in the first half.
Distance shooter 6’1 James Gibson led five double-figure scorers with 22 points and made 6 of 11 threes as the Tigers shot 54.8 percent from the floor and made 11 of 25 three-point attempts, 44 percent.
Gibson’s inclusion in the starting lineup has coincided with the Tigers’ recent run. They are 8-3 since Gibson took over as the primary point guard and 6’5 Cam Holden moved to off guard/small forward.
UT-Martin transfer Holden leads the Tigers in scoring (14.4) and rebounding (8.1), with 2.7 assists and 1.8 steals. Holden leads the CAA with eight double-doubles this winter, which is tied for 29th in Division. He has worn a face mask for seven weeks after suffering a broken nose against Navy.
Wing 6’4 Nicolas Timberlake (14.0) is Towson’s other double-figure scorer. Timberlake and Gibson are averaging two made threes per game.
Bradley transfer guard Terry Nolan (10.1 points, 4.2 assists). displaced by Gibson in the starting lineup, has missed the last three games for undisclosed reasons.
The Strange Year of William, Mary
William & Mary has had a unique season, split almost evenly in the middle. The Tribe lost their first six games and 12 of their first 13 before opening CAA play with two straight upset wins and a share of the conference lead, although they have leveled off since.
The Tribe’s ATS splits are even more striking. They were 0-12 ATS in their first 13, the only victory coming at home against Division III Mary Baldwin. Since, the Tribe is 8-3 ATS, 8-1 before home losses to College of Charleston and UNC Wilmington last week.
— William & Mary Tribe Men's Basketball (@WMTribeMBB) February 1, 2022
Connor Kochera (12.2 points, 4.8 rebounds) and Ben Wight (11.9 points, 5.9 rebounds) are 1-2 in both categories. The Tribe is shooting 41.1 percent from the field and 20.8 percent from distance, both in the bottom 20 percent in Division I.
The Tribe enters after a 92-70 home loss CAA leader UNC Wilmington, which beat Towson in Baltimore 81-77 on Jan. 22. The last two William & Mary opponents have shot 57 percent from the floor.
Brandon Carroll drives to the rim for an underhanded finish!
— William & Mary Tribe Men's Basketball (@WMTribeMBB) February 5, 2022
Year of the Tiger
Towson is off to its best start since joining Division I in 1979-80 after being picked to finish eighth in the CAA in a preseason poll of league coaches and media.
— Towson Men's Basketball (@Towson_MBB) February 8, 2022
The Tigers’ 5-1 start in the CAA was their best since joining the league in 2001, although they enter the William & Mary rematch off a 58-53 loss at Northeastern, when the Huskies’ broke a 12-game losing streak with their first league victory over the season.
Towson leads the CAA in fewest points given up per game (64.9), rebound margin (plus-5.1), field goal percentage defense (41.0) and three-point percentage defense (32.1).
William & Mary vs Towson H2H Results
William & Mary is 6-4 straight up and 5-5 ATS since the 2017-18 season, when the Tribe beat Towson 80-66 in the quarterfinals of the CAA tournament after losing and failing to cover both regular-season meetings.
The Tribe has won and covered the last two at Towson and a 4-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS in the last six.
William & Mary vs Towson Prediction
Towson is the better team in about all areas, but the Tribe has the revenge factor working here, and its success against the number is nothing to sneeze at. The Tribe are 6-1 ATS in the CAA when facing a spread of 9.5 points or more, failing to cover only as a 10.5-point dog in the first meeting with Towson.
The pick: William & Mary +18.5 (-110)