- Alabama’s loss in the National Championship Game was their worst in the Nick Saban era
- The Tide have a soft schedule in 2019, so expect to see them in the SEC Championship Game, at the very least
- Texas A&M (+2500) could be a sleeper in the SEC
The Alabama Crimson Tide have won the SEC in seven of the last 10 seasons. They’re clearly the cream of the crop in the conference but can anyone knock them off their pedestal? MyBookie has released odds to win the SEC in 2019 and, while the Tide are a sizable favorite, there could be value with another team.
2019 SEC Championship Odds
|Team||Odds to Win SEC Championship at MyBookie|
|Alabama Crimson Tide||-150|
|Mississippi State Bulldogs||+2200|
|Texas A&M Aggies||+2500|
|South Carolina Gamecocks||+6600|
|Ole Miss Rebels||+10000|
*Odds taken 06/05/19
Alabama Is Coming Off A Thrashing
The Crimson Tide had a fantastic regular season last year but suffered a really rough loss in the National Championship game. The 44-16 defeat to Clemson was their worst in the Nick Saban era. More notably, Saban was exposed like we’ve never seen before. A loss? Sure. A blowout in that fashion? It has people wondering.
The questions on everyone’s mind is has the game changed? Is the Crimson Tide’s dominance over? Is their run-the-ball-and-play-defense strategy slightly out of touch?
We’ve never seen Alabama bruised and abused like they were in the championship game and that could signal a changing of the guard.
It could also light a fire under the Tide to get them even more focused for 2019.
Let’s Not Overreact
Of course, the loss wasn’t pretty, but let’s not forget how good Alabama was last year in the regular season. They scored 45.6 points per game and they allowed 18.1. That means they were winning by a margin of nearly 30 points per game.
Clemson clearly knows how to beat Alabama, and Georgia knows how to give them fits. For this bet, though, Clemson is not a factor, while Georgia might not be either.
Tide Have A Soft Schedule
I feel sorry for Duke – the Tide’s Week 1 opponent – as they’re going to be a pinata that Alabama takes out an offseason of frustrations on. But looking beyond that, Alabama has very few challenges on their schedule.
They’ll visit South Carolina in Week 3, which is a game that’s tricky at worst. They should be favored by three touchdowns. They’ll also go to Mississippi State this year and to Auburn, but those teams aren’t real threats right now. At home, Alabama hosts LSU, Arkansas, Tennessee and Ole Miss. Those are all wins.
The toughest test on the schedule is a visit to Texas A&M on October 12th. It feels like the only conceivable game that Alabama could lose right now and even in that contest, they should be favored by at least a touchdown. They thumped Texas A&M 45-23 last year and the teams are about the same this year.
Could Alabama get tripped up by Auburn or LSU? Sure but that’s really unlikely. Both teams are challenged offensively and scored a total of 21 points (combined) against Alabama last year. The Tide have a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback, a solid offense and a strong defense. It would be a huge upset if they lost either of those games.
The oddsmakers give the Tide a regular-season win total of 11 games – tied for the highest in the nation. There’s a reason that’s the case as the Tide should roll through the regular season.
Can Georgia Beat The Tide?
Georgia has been close to beating Alabama in recent years but they have a much trickier schedule in front of them. Before talking about Bama, they have to get to the SEC Championship Game.
Georgia should be there but it’s worth noting that they have to face Notre Dame, which will be a challenging game, South Carolina, an improved Kentucky side, Florida and Texas A&M. The good news is all of those games are at home save for the Florida game, which is at a neutral site.
Their toughest road game will be at Auburn in November but the Tigers aren’t supposed to have much bite to them.
What’s The Best Bet?
It’s the SEC, so the safest bet is Alabama. Georgia has been a small step behind and still is. They’ll mount a credible challenge but the Tide – especially coming off last year’s brutal loss – will be better prepared this time around. Personally, I would bet them as they should – at the very least – be in the SEC Championship Game.
If you want to take a flier with Georgia, though, it’s a reasonable bet. Alabama is not a lock here. They shoa lock to get to the SEC Championship Game but if they have to face Georgia, a win is not guaranteed.
The best value play is taking a flier with Texas A&M. They’re probably a year away but they have a star in the making in quarterback Kellen Mond and head coach Jimbo Fisher has this team ahead of schedule. They’re going to start the year in the Top 10 but these odds don’t give them credit for any of that. At +2500, they’re a quality flier.
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