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Week 12 College Football Picks Against the Spread

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Football

Updated Nov 16, 2022 · 6:00 AM PST

Texas Christian Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan keeps the ball for yards
Nov 12, 2022; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Christian Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) keeps the ball for yards during the second half against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
  • Week 12 features a pair of critical Pac-12 conference games on Saturday, November 19
  • No. 9 USC meets No. 16 UCLA and No. 12 Oregon meets No. 10 Utah for the Pac-12’s top two spots
  • Read below for the best ATS picks for Week 12 of the college football season

College football Week 12 features the biggest games of the year in the Pac-12, when four of the five title contenders meet Saturday. No. 7 USC (9-1, 7-1) can clinch a spot in the Pac-12 championship game with a victory at No. 16 UCLA (8-2, 5-2), which must win to stay in the hunt. No. 12 Oregon (8-2, 6-1) plays host No. 10 Utah (8-2, 6-1), with the winner in strong position for a spot in the title game.

Among the CFP Final Four, No. 2 Ohio State (10-0, 7-0) and No. 3 Michigan (10-0, 7-0) prepare for their expected Big Ten East showdown next week against Maryland and Illinois, respectively. No. 1 Georgia (10-0, 7-0) and No. 4 TCU (10-0, 7-0) are on the road, as is No. 5 Tennessee (9-1, 5-1), hoping to sneak in.

Here are CFB betting odds and three ATS picks to consider for Week 12.

TCU vs Baylor Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
TCU Horned Frogs -2.5 (-115) -140 Over 58 (-110)
Baylor Bears +2.5 (-105) +120 Under 58 (-110)

Odds from DraftKings on Nov. 15. Get the DraftKings promo code for CFB betting. 


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ATS Pick #1: TCU (-2.5) vs Baylor

TCU clinched a berth in the Big 12 championship game when it slugged out a 17-10 victory over Texas the last time out, when its defense stepped into the spotlight quarterback Max Duggan and the offense have occupied most of the season. The Horned Frogs limited Texas to 199 yards total offense and no offensive touchdowns, the Longhorns’ only touchdown coming on a scoop-and-score after a Duggan fumble.

The Horned Frogs are 8-1-1 ATS behind Duggan, who ranks No. 6 in Division in passing efficiency (2,531 yards, 25 touchdowns, two interceptions) and No. 12 in total offense at 486 yards per game. The defense shut down Texas star running back Bijan Robinson, who had 12 carries for 29 yards. With running back Kendre Miller rushing for 138 yards and a touchdown, the Horned Frogs had near-15 minute time of possession advantage while elevating their standing in the National Championship odds.

Sonny Dykes’ team has handled everything thrown their way, including Texas’ relentless pressure on Duggan, and a road game against a four-loss Baylor team that is 0-3 against AP Top 25 teams and has not beaten a Big 12 team that has a winning league record is a lesser obstacle. Baylor’s motivation is a potential rematch in the Big 12 title game, but it is a very long shot. The Frogs are 6-1 SU in the series and 5-0 ATS in the last five in Waco.

  • Pick: TCU-2.5 (-120), 2 units

USC vs UCLA Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
USC Trojans -1.5 (-114) -126 Over 75.5 (-110)
UCLA Bruins +1.5 (-106) +105 Under 75.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook on Nov. 15.

ATS Pick #2: USC (-1.5) vs UCLA

Points will not be a problem here. This game features two teams that rank in the top seven NCAA Division I in total offense and in the top 11 in scoring offense. USC quarterback Caleb Williams and UCLA quarterback Damian Thompson-Robinson are arguably the best quarterbacks on the West Coast and rank in the top 11 in passing efficiency. Williams has accounted for 37 touchdowns; DTR, for 27.

UCLA halfback Zack Charbonnet leads the Pac-12 and is third in Division with 143.1 rushing yards per game while missing two games for apparent maintenance reasons. The Trojans will be without their most reliable ground weapon in Travis Dye, who suffered a season-ending left leg injury when he was caught in a pile in a 55-17 victory at Colorado the last time out Friday. Dye had 884 yards rushing and nine touchdowns.

Neither team has shown much defensively. UCLA, which has lost two of its last four, has given up at least 410 yards total offense in five of its last six games. USC has been slightly better and remains the team to beat in the conference title odds. Arizona chewed both up within the last three weeks, but USC beat the Wildcats and UCLA did not.

USC is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in the last seven in the series and 17-6 SU over a longer stretch. The majority of players in this game have competed against each other since high school; the venue simply doesn’t matter.

  • Pick: USC -1.5 (-112), 2 units

Iowa vs Wisconsin Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Iowa Hawkeyes +3 (-110) +125 Over 32.5 (-115)
Minnesota Golden Gophers -3 (-110) -145 Under 32.5 (-105)

Odds from DraftKings on Nov. 15.

ATS Pick #3: Iowa (+3) vs Minnesota

Iowa, yes Iowa, is in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten West race if Michigan beats Illinois this week. The Hawkeyes jumped up after a 24-10 victory over Wisconsin last time out despite a season-low 146 yards of total offense, 2.15 yards per play. A pick-six and a long punt return helped and the Hawkeyes’ defense — third in Division I at 261 yards per game — did the rest.

Minnesota has a strong running game led by Mo Ibrahim, but the status of Gophers’ quarterback Tanner Morgan is unclear after he suffered an upper-body injury in a 20-13 victory over Nebraska and did not play last week against Northwestern. The Gophers rode Ibrahim against Northwestern, when freshman quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis was 7 of 13 passes for 64 yards.

Iowa is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games for the Floyd of Rosedale trophy, and 4-1 SU and ATS in the last four in Minneapolis. This is not a game for a freshman quarterback. Take the trends and the points in a game that could go under the ridiculously low number.

  • Pick: Iowa +3 (-110)
  • Season CFB 35-37 ATS


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