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Week 5 College Football Picks Against the Spread

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Football

Updated Sep 28, 2022 · 8:30 AM PDT

Wake Forest Demon Deacons quarterback Sam Hartman throws a pass
Sep 24, 2022; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons quarterback Sam Hartman (10) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Clemson Tigers at Truist Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
  • Week 5 of College Football features five matchups of ranked teams on Saturday, Oct. 1
  • Four of the ACC’s best meet when Clemson hosts NC State and Wake Forest visits Florida State
  • Read below for the best ATS picks for Week 5 of the college football season

Week 5 offers a quintet of ranked matchups, two in both the SEC and the ACC and another in the Big 12. In Waco, visiting Oklahoma State looks to avenge its oh-so-close loss to Baylor in the 2021 Big 12 title game.

No. 2 Alabama and No. 7 Kentucky have road tests at No. 20 Arkansas and No. 14 Ole Miss, respectively. Call it shakeout Saturday in the ACC, where No. 5 Clemson and No. 10 North Carolina State square off in Death Valley and No. 22 Wake Forest visits No. 23 Florida State.

Here are CFB betting odds and three ATS picks to consider for Week 5.

Wake Forest vs Florida State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +6.5 (-109) +205 Over 65.5 (-112)
Florida State Seminoles -6.5 (-112) -265 Under 65.5 (-109)

All Odds from Barstool Sportsbook on Sept. 28.

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ATS Pick #1: Wake Forest (+6.5) vs Florida State

Since Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman was cleared to play after undergoing surgery to remove a blood clot in August, the Demon Deacons have put up the kind of offensive numbers that made them the third-highest scoring team (41.0 ppg) in NCAA Division I a year ago.

The Demon Deacons (3-1) have scored 45, 37 and 51 points in Hartman’s three starts, and he is ninth in Division in passing efficiency due to the fact that he has thrown only two interceptions. Wake Forest’s plan is to turn Hartman lose and outscore opponents, and it has worked for going on two seasons.

Hartman had a career-high six touchdowns in a 51-45 double overtime home loss to Clemson last week. He has completed 64 percent of his passes for 962 yards and 13 touchdowns, numbers that compare favorably to his breakout 2021 season — 4,228 yards, 39 touchdowns and 14 picks.

Resurgent Florida State (4-0) is off to its best start since 2015. After winning squeakers against LSU and Louisville, the Seminoles routed Boston College 44-14 last week behind quarterback Jordan Travis’s career-high 321 yards.

Wake Forest, which won the ACC Atlantic Division last season, needs victory to climb back into race — Clemson, FSU and Syracuse are 2-0 in the division. The Demon Deacons have the weapons to do it.

Wake Forest is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five, 6-2 SU in its last eight on the road and 4-2 ATS in its last six away. FSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six against Wake.

  • Pick: Wake Forest +6.5 (-109)

Navy vs Air Force Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Navy Midshipmen +14 (-110) +487 Over 37.5 (-107)
Air Force Falcons -14 (-110) -715 Under 375 (-114)

ATS Pick #2: Air Force (-14) vs Navy

Air Force is not just a grind-it-out triple option any longer. The Falcons still do that, of course, but in quarterback Haaziq Daniels they can stretch the field when defenders creep too close.

The Falcons are 23rd in Division I in total offense at 486.8 yards per game and lead the nation with 412.2 rushing yards per game, more than 100 yards better than No. 2 Minnesota. Brad Roberts is the main man, with 116 yards per game and seven touchdowns. Daniels has not hit his stride, completing only 40.7 percent of his passes, but he has thrown only 21 times so far.

Wyoming ganged up on Roberts in a 17-14 victory in Laramie, holding him to 64 yards, and the Falcons could not adjust in their only loss. Despite that loss, the Falcons look like the favorite in the Mountain West Mountain Division.

Navy broke a two-game losing streak with a 23-20 double-overtime victory over East Carolina last week, but it does have the weapons to compete in this leg of the service academies’ top prize, the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy.

Air Force is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS with an average winning margin 21 points of in the last four in Colorado Springs.

  • Pick: Air Force -14 (-113)

Iowa State vs Kansas Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Iowa State Cyclones -3.5 (-109) -157 Over 58 (-110)
Kansas Jayhawks +3.5 (-112) +130 Under 58 (-110)

#ATS Pick #3: Kansas (+3.5) vs Iowa State

The series history overwhelmingly favors Iowa State in his one. But go against Kansas? Now? The resurgent Jayhawks are 4-0 for the first time since 2009 and — more importantly, for us — are 4-0 ATS on a run that has included victories at Houston and West Virginia.

Quarterback Jalon Daniels is seventh in Division I in passing efficiency and has passed for 890 yards and 11 touchdowns. He also has rushed for 326 yards, and he will be the best player Iowa State has seen thus far. Coach Lance Leipold, headed for greater things, has his team believing.

The line inched toward Iowa State after it opened, and we get it. The Cyclones are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and have topped 50 points in the last two. At the same time, the Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five and 4-1 ATS in their last five at home. The ‘Clones are 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six on the road. Until this year, Kansas had gone 12 straight seasons with three wins or fewer.

Things change.

  • Pick: Kansas +3.5 (+125)
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