Alabama’s Odds to Make the College Football Playoff Fall from -340 to -290 on the Eve of Week 1
- Alabama has made the College Football Playoff in four straight seasons
- The Tide’s odds to make the 2020 CFP have fallen from -340 to -290, on average
- Why is Nick Saban’s perennial powerhouse trending downwards?
Alabama’s odds to make the College Football Playoff have fallen from -340 to -290 across leading online sportsbooks heading into Week 1 of the season.
Alabama is coming off a 14-1 season and currently have the second-best odds to win the 2020 National Championship behind Clemson.
Alabama has lost two key players to season-ending injuries before Week 1 even arrived. Should you still bet on the Crimson Tide to make the four-team playoff?
Will Alabama Make the 2020 College Football Playoff?
| Team | “Yes” Odds | “No” Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | -300 | +250 |
*Odds taken 08/30/19.
Impact of Injuries
Star linebacker Dylan Moses suffered a torn ACL during a recent practice and will miss the entire season. Moses led the Crimson Tide with 86 tackles a season ago and is a projected first round draft pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. This is an enormous loss for Alabama. Outside of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Moses is likely their next most valuable player.
Nick Saban: "You can't replace a guy like Dylan Moses. When you lose a signal-caller on defense, it's very similar to losing your quarterback. … Dylan Moses is one of the best people on our team, one of the best players on our team, one of our best leaders on our team."
— Charlie Potter (@Charlie_Potter) August 30, 2019
Senior linebacker Josh McMillon, meanwhile, suffered a knee injury during a scrimmage that will likely be season-ending. While McMillon isn’t a major impact player, he had been running with the first-team defense this offseason. He had 14 tackles in 10 games last season.
Five-star running back signee Trey Sanders could reportedly miss the entire season with a foot injury suffered in practice. He was in contention to see the field this season behind veterans Najee Harris and Brian Robinson.
While these injuries shouldn’t make you jump ship on Alabama, players are going to need to step up if the Crimson Tide want to make the CFP. Alabama already lost five starters on defense from 2018 and now have to deal with two more huge losses. Freshmen Shane Lee and Christian Harris are expected to be the two replacements for McMillon and Moses. That type of inexperience in the middle of Alabama’s defense will be a scary thought for bettors.
Next man up 🔼🔼🔼
True freshmen Christian Harris and Shane Lee lead inside linebackers…
📽 Watch tonight's Alabama practice footage: https://t.co/tmHv9MQs8N pic.twitter.com/VJmnytCzVE
— BamaOnLine (@BOL_On3) August 29, 2019
Veterans will need to help carry the load, but there’s no replacing Moses. As the signal caller on defense, he called the plays and made the adjustments. Losing that leadership is something you need to consider when betting on the Crimson Tide moving forward.
Alabama Has Battled Adversity Before
Alabama does have a few things working in their favor here.
The Crimson Tide have an easy early-season schedule where they can try to develop some chemistry and figure things out. They open the season against unranked Duke before taking on four more unranked teams in New Mexico State, South Carolina, Southern Miss and Ole Miss.
In addition to the easy schedule, the Crimson Tide have dealt with injuries on defense before. This will be the third consecutive season that at least two Alabama linebackers have suffered injuries that cost them 10-plus games.
Nick Saban addressed the injury sustained by LB Dylan Moses and talked about the adversity he's facing — and it being a "character check" for Dylan and for the entire team.
📺 Watch more from Wednesday night's press conference: https://t.co/vu1H8l0v6A pic.twitter.com/TQRzRaNqFN
— BamaOnLine (@BOL_On3) August 29, 2019
Alabama’s defense took a blow prior to last season when Terrell Lewis and Christian Miller suffered season-ending injuries in the team’s opener against FSU. They were still able to make it to the CFP due to the emergence of players such as Moses. This time, however, there isn’t that same certainty in the depth on defense.
Nick Saban is the guy you would want in charge of figuring out this mess, but it’s not going to be easy this time around. Veteran linebackers Anfernee Jennings and Terrell Lewis, in addition to the younger players, will need to step up.
Saban has a history of doing a good job replacing talent, so if these freshman linebackers develop and gain experience early in the year, they could have what it takes to play shutdown defense in tough matchups later in the year against LSU and Auburn.
Analysis
These injuries shouldn’t be taken lightly. The injury to Moses brings losses both on and off the field. Losing his skill and leadership is a major blow to Alabama’s roster.
The Crimson Tide remain a powerhouse due to Tagovailoa and an elite receiver corpse, but you need to take these injuries into consideration.
If Alabama can get through the first half of their season without incurring any upsets, they are still a solid bet to make the CFP in 2020.
Alabama could lose an extra game or two this season, but if someone steps up to replace Moses leadership and production, the offense is good enough to lead the Crimson Tide to a fifth straight College Football Playoff appearance.
If Alabama can get through the first half of their season without incurring any upsets, they are still a solid bet to make the CFP in 2020.
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
