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Who Are the Sharps Backing in LSU vs Alabama?

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Nov 8, 2019 · 6:06 PM PST

Alabama Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban
The sharp money is all over Alabama in the Game of the Century versus LSU. Photo by Carol M. Highsmith (Wikimedia).
  • Sharp money is coming in on the LSU vs Alabama game
  • General betting totals have been pretty even, but sharps are betting Alabama
  • Why are professional bettors backing the Crimson Tide?

Sharp money is being bet on the highly-anticipated LSU vs Alabama game on Saturday.  General betting totals for the game have been fairly even so far, but the overwhelming amount of sharp action is currently on Alabama.

Why are sharps backing the Crimson Tide in the LSU vs Alabama odds?

LSU vs Alabama Odds & Betting Handle

Team Spread Moneyline Handle
#2 LSU +5.5 (-109) +185 48.0%
#3 Alabama -5.5 (-111) -221 52.0%

Odds taken November 8

Betting Breakdown

One prominent online betting site reports that general betting totals for the LSU vs Alabama game on Saturday have been pretty even. The online sportsbook is reporting that Alabama is receiving 52% of the handle and 57% of the bet count.

These totals aren’t very surprising considering Alabama’s reputation and LSU’s incredible season, but what is notable is the stance sharp bettors have taken. 81% of the sharp money is currently on the Crimson Tide.  Alabama has made four straight appearances in the CFP National Championship game, while LSU is ranked No. 1 in the latest AP Poll.

The Crimson Tide would be receiving more of the money if star QB Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t nursing an ankle injury and considered a “game-time decision”. 5.5-points is the fewest amount Alabama has been favored by at home since November 5th 2011 when they were also 5.5-point favorites to LSU. They went on to lose that game 9-6.

Why Sharps Are Backing Alabama

Sharps are likely aware that Alabama has won eight straight games against LSU dating back to 2011. They also know that the Crimson Tide are playing at home in this game and are sporting a 31-game winning streak at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Sharps also know that Alabama coach Nick Saban has won five national championships and is considered the best coach in college football. He’s played in countless big games and has a history of winning through adversity.

Sharps are also aware that despite star QB Tua Tagovailoa being considered a “game-time decision”, Tua told teammates after his injury against Tennessee that he’d be back for LSU. While it hasn’t officially been confirmed, it’s looking more and more likely that Tua will play.

How Will The Line Shift?

If Tagovailoa is announced as the Tide’s starter, the line will likely shift in Alabama’s favor. Tua had the same tightrope procedure on his other ankle last season and returned to face Oklahoma in the CFP semi-final. Despite only being at “80 percent” for that game, Tagovailoa still turned in a great performance to lead Alabama to victory.

With no official confirmation on whether or not Tua is playing, this line has settled around Alabama being a near touchdown favorite.

Verdict

Sharps are backing Alabama because of their program history, home-field advantage and dominance of LSU in the last 10 years.

Sharps know that while Joe Burrow is the Heisman favorite, Tagovailoa is also a very talented QB who is likely to play.  Alabama shutdown Burrow and LSU’s offense in a 29-0 victory last season.

With the public being divided and sharp money coming in on Alabama, expect this line to move a few points in Alabama’s favor if Tua is confirmed to be playing.

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