Baylor vs BYU Odds, Spread and Prediction

• No. 21 BYU is a 3-point home favorite over No. 9 Baylor on Saturday
• Baylor beat BYU 38-24 as a 5.5-point favorite in 2021 in Waco
• Read below for Baylor vs BYU odds, analysis, and betting prediction

No. 21 BYU (1-0) is a 3-point home favorite over defending Big 12 champion Baylor at 10:15 pm ET Saturday on ESPN. BYU is 12-1 SU at home, 7-5-1 ATS, since a 7-6 loss to Northern Illinois on Oct. 27, 2018.

No. 9 Baylor (1-0) won a school-record 12 games in 2021, coach Dave Aranda’s second season. The Bears rolled up 534 yards total offense, 303 yards rushing, in a 38-24 victory over then-No. 19 Cougars on Oct. 16, 2021 in Waco. Baylor was unranked at the time.

Baylor vs BYU Odds

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BYU Powers Up for the Power Five

In their last season as an independent before joining the Big 12 in 2023, the Cougars got off to a rousing start with a 50-21 victory at South Florida last week. Halfback Christopher Brooks rushed for 135 yards and a touchdown and quarterback Jaren Hall passed for 261 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. The Cougars led 35-7 at the half.

Pass pro details.
Chris Brooks can run, does he want to block in pass pro?
And watch the puller pick up the corner blitz.
It's easy to play pitch and catch when you're guys are playing like this! pic.twitter.com/rYgYXcnWbB

— Hans Olsen (@975Hans) September 7, 2022

California senior transfer Brooks set a school record for rushing yards in a debut, and the Cougars grounded out 321 yards in what they see as a we’re-ready-for-the-big-boys statement season.

BYU entered the year off back-to-back 10-win, Top 20 seasons and upgraded its schedule to include games against defending league champions Baylor and Utah State (Mountain West), Pac-12 North contender Oregon, Notre Dame, Arkansas and Stanford. The Cougars’ 2022 slate ranks in the top half of the NCAAF strength of schedule rankings.

Even with the success of the running game against South Florida, coach Kalani Sitake adjusted the offensive line, moving right guard Harris LaChance and center Connor Pay into the starting lineup against Baylor.

Injury Update

BYU wide receiver Puka Nacua, who broke a 75-yard touchdown run on the first play of the USF game, is a game-time decision, according to the BYU staff, as is starting wideout Gunner Romney.

#CFB's Top 5 Fastest Ball Carriers from Week 1

4️⃣ BYU WR Puka Nacua (@AsapPuka) 20.7 mph@BYUfootball | #GoCougs pic.twitter.com/9UFzogAsxL

— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) September 6, 2022

Nacua, who entered with a hamstring injury, had two rushing touchdowns in the first seven minutes against USF but wore a walking boot after the game. Romney, whose injury is undisclosed, has 117 career receptions and nine touchdowns.

Bear-ing Up Well

Bears’ sophomore quarterback Blake Shapen, who won the job from Gerry Bohanon in spring practice, completed 17 of 20 passes for 214 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for another in the 69-10 rout of FCS Albany last week. The Bears had 573 yards total offense, 259 rushing yards and led 21-0 after 9 1/2 minutes.

Highest-graded QB on throws 10+ yards:

🐻 Blake Shapen, Baylor – 97.0 pic.twitter.com/t7K0U1zpAv

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 6, 2022

Shapen got a leg up on the job in a 21-16 victory over Oklahoma State in the 2021 Big 12 Title game, when he completed his first 17 passes en route to being named the game MVP while stepping in for an injured Bohanon, who transferred to USF and was non-factor against BYU last week.

The Bears, who believe in ball control and defense, have won six in a row, second in the FBS to Clemson (seven). Former BYU offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes has the same position at Baylor, which is the third-favorite to win the Big 12 in the conference title odds. 

Baylor vs BYU Prediction

Sitake called out the Cougars’ lack of physicality after they failed to compete in the trenches in the loss at Baylor last season, when they gave up 534 yards total offense. The last time the Cougars were manhandled like that, in a 40-6 home loss to Wisconsin in 2017, they got physical in the rematch and beat the Badgers 24-21 as 23.5-point road underdogs in Madison in 2018.

This is a pay-back game for BYU, and they are prepared. BYU is 12-1 SU, 7-5-1 ATS in its last 13 as a home favorite, and it covered the only game in which the spread was this low. Baylor has competing trends — 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight as a road dog but 1-5 ATS in the last six road openers. The Bears have not been this far west for a regular season game since visiting Washington State in 2006.

The pick: BYU -3 (113)