Camellia Bowl Picks & Odds: FIU Coach Butch Davis Is 6-3 All-Time in Bowl Games
- FIU plays Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 21
- Panthers coach Butch Davis is 6-3 all-time in bowl games
- Read below for the odds and how to bet on Saturday’s matchup
Florida International (6-6, 3-5 Conference USA) is a small 2.5-point underdog against Arkansas State (7-5, 5-3 Sun Belt) in the Camellia Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 21 (5:30 PM EST). The Panthers season was highlighted by a big upset win over Miami, while the Red Wolves gained bowl eligibility due to a strong second half.
The Red Wolves have a dangerous aerial attack, but the Golden Panthers are better defensively – which team is the best bet in the FIU vs Arkansas State odds?
FIU vs Arkansas State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida International | +2.5 (-110) | +115 | O 62.5 (-110) |
| Arkansas State | -2.5 (-110) | -135 | U 62.5 (-110) |
Odds taken Dec. 17th.
Red Wolves Surging
Arkansas State enters this matchup having won four of their last last five games. The Red Wolves beat Texas State, LA-Monroe, Coastal and GA Southern before seeing their winning streak end with an upset loss to Southern Alabama in Week 14.
A big reason for their success is the play of Alabama transfer freshman QB Layne Hatcher. He’s thrown for over 250 yards in seven of his nine games and has thrown at least two TD passes in eight consecutive contests.
His favorite target is senior wide receiver Omar Bayless, who was named Sun Belt Player of the Year after he totalled 84 catches for 1,473 yards and 16 touchdowns this season.
Arkansas State is the better team through the air, but FIU does a better job protecting their quarterback and have the tools to limit Hatcher and Bayless on Saturday.
FIU Much Better Defensively
The reason this spread is close to a pick’em is because Florida International has been the much better team defensively this season. The Panthers are especially good at defending the pass, ranking sixth nationally with just 178.5 passing yards allowed per game.
The 3 INT game on Saturday has the Panther defense ranked 25th overall in the nation! #PawsUp ? | #PantherPride pic.twitter.com/6hsh5kRxGV
— FIU Football (@FIUFootball) November 27, 2019
While the team is still allowing over 200 rushing yards per game, it may not matter too much considering the Red Wolves don’t have a great ground attack and rank 112th in the country with just 126.8 rushing yards per game.
Arkansas State, meanwhile, is giving up a whopping 258.8 passing yards per game. That doesn’t bode well going up against talented FIU QB James Morgan, who is playing in his final game with the program. He’s only thrown three interceptions all season and should have a big night against a weak secondary.
Bowl History
Arkansas State is making its ninth straight bowl appearance, while FIU is making its fifth bowl appearance in school history. While the Red Wolves have more experience in bowl games, they have lost four of their last five, including a loss to Nevada in the 2018 Arizona Bowl.
FIU owns a 2-2 record in bowl games, including a 35-32 win over Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl last season. Where the Panthers hold the edge is in coaching. Butch Davis had a great run in bowl games when he was coach of Miami and owns a solid 6-3 record in bowl games overall.
Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson lacks the experience of Davis and has earned just one victory in five bowl appearances with the Red Wolves.
Betting Advice
Both these teams have capable quarterbacks, but FIU’s edge in the run game is what could lead them to victory Saturday. The Panthers have rushed for over 130 yards seven times this season and won six of those games. They’re very likely to continue that trend against an Arkansas State rush defense surrendering well over 200 yards on the ground per game.
While Butch Davis-coached teams are 8-1 ATS all-time in bowl games, the best value here is taking the Panthers straight up. FIU beat a good Miami team this season and took Marshall to overtime in their most recent game.
Expect Morgan to have a big night in his final game for the Panthers, while the defense comes up with a few big stops to secure an upset victory.
Pick: Florida International ML (+115)
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
