- The game total for the Oklahoma State vs West Virginia has dropped nearly six points since opening at 58
- The under has hit in the last three West Virginia games and two of the last three Oklahoma State games
- According to Weather.com, there’s a 75-percent chance of rain during Saturday’s game
The Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-3, 4-3 Big 12 ) will face the West Virginia Mountaineers (4-6, 2-5) in Morgantown this Saturday at 12:00 ET in a game that has seen the total drop nearly six points since opening at 58.
Why the precipitous drop? Is it due to a strong chance of precipitation, or is there something more? We analyze this peculiar shift and make a prediction.
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs West Virginia Mountaineers odds
|Oklahoma State||-210||-5.5 (-107)||O 54.5 (-117)|
|West Virginia||+180||+5.5 (-113)||U 54.5 (-103)|
Odds taken Nov. 21.
When you look at the Oklahoma State vs West Virginia odds, you see the steady decline in the total (from 58 to 54.5) as well as the point spread (with WVU moving from +8 to +5.5). Let’s break down the dramatic movement on the total.
Weather a Factor?
The first thing I look at when there’s such a significant drop in the over/under is the weather forecast. Are major inclement conditions expected at Milan Puskar Stadium?
According to Weather.com, temperatures at kickoff should be in the high 40s-low 50s range with a slight breeze (4 mph) and rain. Sure, the wet weather may play a factor. But we’re not talking about super-gusty winds or a major snowstorm developing. Is there another explanation for the big move?
A bigger factor in the total trending downward may just be oddsmakers realizing that the Mountaineers simply aren’t that good when they have the ball. Prior to inserting Bowling Green transfer Jarret Doege as the starting quarterback last week against Kansas State (which resulted in a 24-20 victory), Neal Brown’s program had dropped five games in a row — putting up no more than 17 points in four of those losses.
Yes, Doege provided a much-needed spark. But this Mountaineer team is a far cry from the Dana Holgorsen-Air Raid glory days.
Even if the Mountaineers bust out a gadget play here and there and take chances as they try to get one step closer to bowl eligibility, those chances can backfire too. I don’t see a high-scoring affair here.
Late 90s music fans know Chumbawamba’s one-hit wonder “Tubthumping”. But how many college football fans know the exploits of Cowboys running back Chuba Hubbard? All the sophomore from Canada has done is lead the FBS in rushing with 1,726 yards and score 20 touchdowns in 2019.
Expect a heavy dose of Hubbard on Saturday as Mike Gundy’s crew isn’t all that dynamic without star receiver Tylan Wallace. Wallace was lost to a season-ending ACL injury suffered in practice three weeks ago.
This is the type of game (on the road and the week before Bedlam) where the Cowboys will be content with an ugly win. Style points be damned. That’s why I still like the under, despite the big drop this week, as we inch toward kickoff.
Pick: Under 54.5 (-103)