Hawaii vs Boise State: Mountain West Title Game Picks & Odds; Broncos Have Won Last Seven Meetings

• Hawaii and Boise State faceoff in the Mountain West Championship game on Saturday, Dec. 7
• The Broncos defeated the Rainbow Warriors 59-37 in October and currently favored by 13.5 in the rematch
• Which team is the best bet against the spread?

Boise State will play Hawaii for the Mountain West Championship on Saturday (Dec. 7). The Broncos (11-1) are hosting the title game for the third year in a row, while Hawaii (7-4) is making its first-ever appearance in the conference championship.

Boise State opened as 15.5-point favorites at Albertsons Stadium, but the line has moved down with early money coming in on the underdog.

How should you bet on the Hawaii vs Boise State odds?

Hawaii vs Boise State Odds

Odds taken Dec. 3. 

Boise State Favored by 13.5

The Broncos are being listed as 13.5-point favorites over the Rainbow Warriors at home on Saturday. Boise State is being favored due to an undefeated record in Mountain West Play this season plus a convincing 22-point win over Hawaii earlier in the year.

On the rise 📈

⬆️ 19 @AP_Top25
⬆️ 17 Coaches Poll#BleedBlue pic.twitter.com/qQKYE2hnhX

— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) December 1, 2019

Both teams have strong offenses, ranking first and second in the conference, but the Broncos have been significantly better defensively. Boise State ranks 36th nationally in total defense, allowing 348.9 yards per game, while Hawaii is ranked 95th and allows 430.8 yards per game.

Both Teams Surging

Both Hawaii and Boise State enter this matchup playing some of their best football of the season. The Broncos beat Colorado State 31-24 in Week 14 to finish undefeated in Mountain West play for the first time in program history. Boise State’s only loss this season came at the hands of BYU on Oct. 19.

Hawaii earned a fourth consecutive victory by beating Army 52-37 in Week 14. The Rainbow Warriors have improved their defensive play of late, winning their last two conference games against UNLV and San Diego State by a combined 35-18 score.

Broncos Won Previous Meeting

These teams will be playing each other for the second time this season on Saturday. The Broncos won the first meeting on Oct. 12 at Albertsons Stadium by a 59-37 score.

QB’s Chase Cord and Jaylon Henderson finished a combined 18 of 28 passing for 257 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions after starter Hank Bachmeier went down with injury in the second quarter. The game was fairly close until the fourth quarter when Boise State took advantage of a few Hawaii turnovers and blew the game open.

Boise State has won seven straight games against Hawaii and has covered the spread in the last six. Despite the recent dominance, the matchup on Saturday will look quite different then the one we saw in October.

Intriguing QB Battle

Bachmeier is reportedly available to play Saturday, but the Broncos may opt to go with Henderson.  The Senior QB has impressed with nine TD passes in his first three starts, while Bachmeier has thrown just 26 pass attempts since Oct. 5 and could be rusty.

🚨UPDATED DEPTH CHART🚨

Senior Jaylon Henderson has been moved to the top of the depth chart at quarterback for #BoiseState.

No, he was not listed at No. 1 in his previous three starts. pic.twitter.com/gpUNAN1lP0

— Jay Tust (@KTVBSportsGuy) December 2, 2019

Chevan Cordeiro and Cole McDonald have been rotating at QB for the Rainbow Warriors, which has led to a drop in the team’s passing offense. It’s unclear which QB starts Saturday, but McDonald has been the better of the two, throwing for 3,401 yards and 29 TDS this season. It’s important to note that Marquise Stovall, Hawaii’s top receiver in the previous meeting with the Broncos, is no longer with the team.

With both teams having capable quarterbacks, Boise State true freshman running back George Holani could be the difference Saturday. He’s racked up 912 yards on the ground this season and can carve his way through a weak Hawaii rush defense that is allowing 5.70 yards per carry this season.

Betting Advice

This line appears to be settling around right where it should be. Boise State deserves to be favored, but getting 15 points was a bit much against a feisty Hawaii team.

Hawaii has the weapons to keep the game within two touchdowns, but the Broncos’ recent dominance of the Rainbow Warriors, combined with the impressive play of Henderson and Holani, is reason to bet the Broncos to cover.

As much as Hawaii has improved defensively of late, they also struggled to score against conference opponents UNLV and San Diego State. Boise State has proven they can score on this Hawaii defense and have been the much better team defensively.

Pick: Boise State (-13.5)