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Hawaii vs New Mexico State Odds, Prediction & How to Watch

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in College Football

Updated Sep 22, 2023 · 9:15 PM PDT

Hawaii has never lost a home game to New Mexico State
Nov 5, 2022; Fresno, California, USA; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors running back Jalen Perdue (22) celebrates with right tackle Austin Hope (77) after scoring a touchdown against the Fresno State Bulldogs in the fourth quarter at Valley Children's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are 3-point home favorites over the New Mexico State Aggies in their college football game slated for Saturday, September 23
  • Hawaii is 10-1 straight up all-time in 11 games against New Mexico State
  • The Aggies are 4-2 against the spread in the past six games facing the Rainbow Warriors

A lot of folks enjoy a trip to Hawaii (1-3, 1-2-1 ATS) but don’t count the New Mexico State Aggies (2-2, 2-2 ATS) among that group. The Aggies have made six visits to the Aloha State to face the Rainbow Warriors. So far, they’re 0-6 straight up in those games.

Will it be lucky #7 for New Mexico State? Oddsmakers don’t think so. Hawaii is set as 3-point home favorites in the New Mexico State vs Hawaii odds. The Rainbow Warriors are 5-5 SU in their last 10 home games.

Let’s dig more deeply into the New Mexico State vs Hawaii odds and offer you our prediction for this Week 4 college football game.

New Mexico State vs Hawaii Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
New Mexico State Aggies +136 +3 (-110) Over 56.5 (-110)
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -162 -3 (-110) Under 56.5 (-110)

In the New Mexico State vs Hawaii odds, the Rainbow Warriors are -162 moneyline favorites, giving them a 61.83% implied win probability. The total is set at 56.5 points.

Odds as of Sept. 22 at DraftKings. Be sure to claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on Aggies vs Rainbow Warriors and other college football Week 4 action this week.


Although they’ve never won outright at Hawaii, New Mexico State is 3-0 ATS in the last three games played there. Overall, the Rainbow Warriors are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 games.

Both of these teams are solid plays to cover. New Mexico is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games. Hawaii is 10-4-1 ATS over the school’s past 15 games.

Kickoff for this late-night game at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex on Saturday, September 23 is set for 11:59 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by Spectrum Sports.

Aggies vs Rainbow Warriors Betting Splits

In the college football public betting splits, the people are feeling extremely confident that in the end, the outcome will favor the Rainbow Warriors. In the spread splits, there’s 99% of handle and 69% of bets backing Hawaii at -3. The home team is 1-6 ATS in the last seven games of this series. Moneyline splits are also going with the -162 favorites, with Hawaii pulling 98% of handle and 95% of bets. Moneyline chalk is 11-0 SU in New Mexico State vs Hawaii games.

On the total of 56.5 points, the under is getting heavy action, It’s grabbing 79% of handle and 76% of bets. The total has gone under in 11 of Hawaii’s last 16 games. However, the over has hit in six of New Mexico State’s past nine games.

Neither of these schools are given betting lines in the National Championship odds. Hawaii is set at +6000 odds to win the Mountain West Conference title game this season. There’s a betting line of +2800 that New Mexico State will win the Conference USA title.

Rainbow Warriors Soar Against Aggies

A visit by New Mexico State might be just the right elixir for the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii is 1-3 to start the year for the third consecutive season.

The Rainbow Warriors dropped a 55-10 road decision to #13 Oregon last week. The Hawaii defense surrendered season highs in points (55), total yards (560), passing yards (350) and rushing yards (210).

Meanwhile, the offense was registering lows in points (10), total yards (201) and passing yards (142). All three of Hawaii’s losses this season have come against Power 5 teams (Vanderbilt, Stanford, and Oregon). Hawaii QB Brayden Schager has throw six picks, one shy of the most in the nation.

However, the Rainbow Warriors have scored 40 points or more in eight of the 11 meetings with New Mexico State. They’ve averaged 42.5 points per game in the series.

Aggies Like To Run On Hawaii

Beating cross-state rival New Mexico 27-17, New Mexico State evened its season mark at 2-2. Quarterback Diego Pavia was getting it done with his arm and feet. He threw for 203 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for a team-high 96 yards.

New Mexico State has relied on the run game in matchups with the Rainbow Warriors. In the last three games against Hawaii, the Aggies are averaging 245 yards per game on the ground. Last season, New Mexico State rushed for 357 yards and five TDs during a 45-26 home-field victory. That was the first-ever win by the Aggies over Hawaii.

New Mexico State vs Hawaii Prediction

There’s a lot of history working on the side of the Rainbow Warriors heading into this game. Start with Hawaii being 6-0 SU all-time against the Aggies. Hawaii’s average margin of victory in those games is 19.3 points. Next is the factor that the betting chalk is 11-0 SU all-time in this series.

This game is featuring  two of the nation’s top statistical quarterbacks. Hawaii’s Schager ranks #3 nationally in passing yards (1,103) and #4 in passing TDs (11). New Mexico State’s Pavia is #11 in passing yards (918) and  #14 in passing TDs (eight).

New Mexico State vs Hawaii Pick: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -3 (-110)



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