Heisman Odds for Kedon Slovis Range from +400 to +2500; Is USC QB a Contender?

USC Trojans QB Kedon Slovis throws the football
USC QB Kedon Slovis' 2020 Heisman odds are generally in the +2000 to +2500 range, but one sportsbook is giving him +400 odds. Photo from @PFF_College (Twitter).
  • Kedon Slovis’ 2020 Heisman odds are generally in the +2000 to +2500 range
  • One betting site has the USC QB at +400 odds, however
  • Read below to see if Slovis should be considered a top-five Heisman contender this year

USC QB Kedon Slovis has some intriguing 2020 Heisman odds after turning in an impressive freshman campaign last year. The Trojans QB is being listed in the +2000 to +2500 range at most betting sites, but one sportsbook is listing him with +400 odds.

Is Slovis a legit Heisman contender in 2020 or should you be pumping the brakes?

2020 Heisman Trophy Odds

Player (Pos, School) Odds
Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson) +294
Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State) +315
Spencer Rattler (QB, Oklahoma) +1000
D’Eriq King (QB, Miami) +1133
Jamie Newman, (QB, UGA) +1325
Sam Ehlinger (QB, Texas) +1475
Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson) +1700
Kedon Slovis (QB, USC) +1950
Chuba Hubbard (RB, Oklahoma State) +2050
Mac Jones (QB, Alabama) +2075
Sam Howell (QB, North Carolina) +2125
Myles Brennan (QB, LSU) +2325
Kyle Trask (QB, Florida) +2400
Bo Nix (QB, Auburn) +2525
Ian Book (QB, Notre Dame) +2675

Odds taken May 11, 2020

Slovis Destined for Big Sophomore Season

Slovis is expected to take another step forward in 2020 after impressing as a freshman last season. The Trojans QB  threw for 3,502 yards and 30 touchdowns with just nine interceptions in 2019.  What might be most promising is how Slovis finished the campaign. In each of his three final regular season games against ASU, California and UCLA, the USC QB threw for over 400 passing yards and completed over 70% of his passes.

Slovis has lost one of his best receivers in Michael Pittman Jr., but he’s getting back his two other favorite targets from last season in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns, who both recorded over 900 receiving yards in 2019. Add in a potential healthy former five-star WR prospect in Bru McCoy and a four-star WR in Gary Bryant Jr. and Slovis has all the tools to deliver another electric offensive season.

USC Has Very Difficult Schedule 

One of the big reasons Slovis’ Heisman odds are generally in the +2000 range is due to the Trojans’ daunting schedule. Not only does USC have to navigate another tough Pac-12 schedule, but their out of conference schedule includes opening the season against Alabama and facing Notre Dame in their regular-season finale. The Trojans haven’t turned in a 10-win season under Clay Helton since 2017, so Slovis has a very difficult task in front of him.

A difficult schedule isn’t necessarily a reason to bet against a Heisman contender, but it’s certainly reason to be cautious. Joe Burrow won his Heisman last season by turning in outstanding performances in his biggest games against his toughest opponents. Slovis set an NCAA freshman record with a 71.9 completion percentage in 2019. Considering that his completion percentage only dipped to 68.8 in games against Top 25 teams, there’s certainly reason for optimism despite the daunting schedule.

What About JT Daniels? 

Slovis is expected to be USC’s starting QB in their opener against the Crimson Tide, but don’t forget about JT Daniels. The sophomore was projected to be USC’s starting QB in 2019 before he suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1 against Fresno State. Daniels reportedly entered the transfer portal in April 2020, but signs are pointing to the QB returning to USC. If NCAA transfer rules don’t change, Daniels would have to sit out the 2020 season if he chose to transfer schools.

It makes sense that Daniel may choose to battle with Slovis for snaps this season and then wait until 2021 to graduate transfer and avoid having to sit out a season. As long as there is a possibility of another QB challenging Slovis for USC’s starting QB role, sportsbooks won’t be eager to bolster his Heisman odds. There should be quality longshot value on Slovis up and into the early goings of the 2020 season.

Betting Analysis 

There are two very strong Heisman favorites this season in Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State’s Justin Fields. After that, the field is wide open. Slovis shouldn’t be considered a top-tier Heisman candidate, but he’s got the accuracy to be considered one of the better longshots.  Anywhere you can get Slovis in the +2000 range given his performance as a freshman and the talent the Trojans are returning on offense is solid value.

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.