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Joe Burrow vs Trevor Lawrence Props: Odds Favor Burrow to Have Better Rookie Season

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Jan 14, 2020 · 10:03 PM PST

LS QB Joe Burrow throws the ball
You can wager on whether Joe Burrow or Clemson's Trevor Lawrence will have a better rookie season in the NFL. Photo by Tammy Anthony Baker (Wikimedia Commons).
  • You can wager on Joe Burrow vs Trevor Lawrence NFL rookie-season props
  • Burrow is the projected 2020 first-overall pick, while Lawrence is projected to go No. 1 in 2021
  • Which college standout will fare better in the pros?

Props released for Joe Burrow vs Trevor Lawrence in their respective NFL rookie seasons. The three props listed are for Burrow’s rookie year in 2020-21 and Lawrence’s (presumptive) rookie year in 2021-22.

Burrow is coming off an incredible season for LSU and is expected to be taken by Cincinnati in the NFL Draft. Lawrence will be returning for one final year at Clemson, which opened as the favorites in the 2021 National Championship odds.

How should you bet on the Burrow vs Lawrence props?

Odds To Have More Wins as a Rookie

Player Odds
Joe Burrow -120
Trevor Lawrence -120

All odds taken Jan. 14

Joe Burrow may very well end up having a better professional career than Trevor Lawrence, but it’s going to be tough in the early going considering mock drafts have him going to the Bengals. Cincinnati is seeking its long-term quarterback replacement for Andy Dalton after a disastrous 2-14 season that saw them land the first-overall pick.

If the mock drafts hold true, Burrow will be playing in a talented AFC North division that includes two other Heisman Trophy winners (Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield), a two-time SuperBowl champion (Ben Roethlisberger), and two top-five NFL defenses in Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Lawrence has more upside here with potential landing spots including the Dolphins, Panthers, Lions, Jets, Raiders, or even a longshot like New England, among others. It’s also impossible to ignore his 29-1 college record and the fact he seems to win at every level he plays at.

Pick: Trevor Lawrence (-120)

Odds To Have More Passing TDs as a Rookie

Player Odds
Joe Burrow -160
Trevor Lawrence +120

It’s very hard to bet against Joe Burrow here after he broke the collegiate single-season touchdown passes record this year. The Heisman winner threw a whopping 60 TD passes with just six interceptions, while Lawrence threw for 36 TDs with eight interceptions.

Cincinnati has enough talent on offense to bet Burrow here. Wide receiver Tyler Boyd is among the NFL’s best when it comes to slot production, and pending WR free agent A.J. Green may also return to the team after missing all of the 2019-20 season with an ankle injury. I also expect the Bengals to beef up their offensive line to protect Burrow.

Burrow isn’t going to have the prolific offense he had at LSU, but the Heisman winner proved with the Tigers that he can operate a pro-style offense. His lethal 76.3 completion percentage in his final college season and soothing calmness in the pocket gives him the edge over Lawrence here.

Pick: Joe Burrow (-160)

Odds To Have More Passing Yards as a Rookie

Player Odds
Joe Burrow -150
Trevor Lawrence +110

Burrow threw a nation-high 5,671 passing yards this season and appears destined to transfer that success over to the NFL. Lawrence only had 3,665 passing yards with Clemson this season, but it’s important to note that he didn’t play as much as Burrow and was often pulled out in the second half of blowout games.

While Burrow is on track to land in Cincinnati, this is a tough prop to bet on due to Lawrence’s unknown future. Burrow has proven to be more the accurate QB, but passing yards is often a by-product of system and coaching. I’m leaning Burrow here due to the fact he’s on track to play a full season for what should be an improved Cincinnati squad.

Lawrence ran the ball more than Burrow this season and may find himself in an offense that isn’t pass-first. He’s also still just 20 years of age and not guaranteed to walk right into an open starting role come draft time. This is especially worth considering when you look at a case like Tua Tagovailoa, who saw his draft stock plummet due to a brutal injury incurred in his final college year.

Pick: Joe Burrow (-150)

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