Kansas State vs Baylor Prediction, Odds and Best Bets

• The Kansas State Wildcats are 2.5-point underdogs Saturday vs the Baylor Bears
• Baylor has won three straight, while KState is coming off a loss to Texas
• See below for odds, analysis and our betting prediction

College football comes at you pretty fast. Just ask the Kansas State Wildcats.

Last week, the 23rd-ranked Wildcats (6-3, 4-2 Big 12) had a chance to climb above the pack in the Big 12, and control their path to the conference title game.

Now? After a tough loss to Texas, they’re in a three way-tie for second in the Big 12, and play one of those teams — the Baylor Bears — in Week 11.

A loss, and they can almost assuredly say goodbye to their conference hopes. For the Bears (6-3, 4-2 Big 12), they’re coming off a big win over Oklahoma, and are looking for their fourth straight win.

It all gets underway Saturday (November 12), from McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas, starting at 7pm ET, in a game you can see live on FS1.

Kansas State vs Baylor Odds

Odds as of Nov 9 from Barstool Sporstbook. And don’t forget to check out the Barstool Sportsbook promo code 

The hometown Bears are 2.5-point favorites in this one, with a total set at 52.5. It’s expected to be cloudy and 65 degrees at kickoff.

Wildcats’ Betting Outlook

Talk about a bad start. After drilling Oklahoma State 48-0 the week prior, Kansas State was blasted by the Longhorns early, as they raced out to a 31-10 halftime lead.

The problem was their run defense. KState had no answer for Longhorns’ running back Bijan Robinson, who carried 30 times for 209 yards and a touchdown. As a team, the Wildcats surrendered 269 rush yards on 40 carries — a hefty 6.7 yards per rush — and two TDs.

Bijan Robinson- the best running back in college football. pic.twitter.com/pQP8RNPRaL

— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) November 5, 2022

This is a team that was allowing just 17.3 points per game, which ranks 13th in FBS. KState is currently ranked 58th in the nation in total defense, surrendering 367.2 yards per game.

Credit Kansas State for a second half charge, as they scored the next two touchdowns in the game. After the teams exchanged field goals, the Wildcats were driving for the tying score when QB Adrian Martinez was stripped and lost a fumble near midfield with 34 seconds to go.

Deuce Vaughn gives it right back 💨@KStateFB ties it up! 💪 pic.twitter.com/cak1ztwt39

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 5, 2022

Martinez easily had his best passing game of the season, throwing for 329 yards and two TD’s, though he also added an interception and the game-ending fumble. The 15th-best run game in college football was limited, however, to just 139 yards rushing on 35 carries.

Deuce Vaughan made the most of his 26 touches, turning those into 159 yards from scrimmage and a TD catch.

Bears’ Betting Outlook

Baylor will try to impose their run game power on Kansas State like Texas did, only with a more potent attack. The Bears sport the 19th-best run game in the NCAA, putting up 210.3 yards per game, on a nice 4.72 yards per carry.

Sqwirl's got the corner 🐿

>> @_Sqwirl 🙌#SicEm | #PersonOverPlayer pic.twitter.com/4fMmERFqvH

— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) November 5, 2022

Last week’s 38-35 win over Oklahoma proved that their run game is built to dominate, no matter who’s in the backfield.

With stud back Richard Reese limited with the flu,  Craig Williams picked up the slack, running 25 times for a career-high 192 yards and two scores. His top performance this season had been 68 yards rushing against BYU.

In all, the Baylor rushed a whopping 48 times for 281 yards and five TDs. Qualan Jones, Jordan Nabors and Reese all found paydirt as well.

Teamwork 🏈💪#SicEm | #PersonOverPlayer pic.twitter.com/s4NcM4F2Ih

— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) November 6, 2022

It wasn’t the best game for quarterback Blake Shapen, who was just 14-for-23 for 132 yards and an interception. It was his lowest passing output of the season, and the first game he failed to throw a TD pass.

Baylor’s pass defense picked off Dillon Gabriel three times.

Kansas State vs Baylor Pick

This head-to-head has decidedly been in Baylor’s favor, as they’ve gone 8-2 in their last 10 meetings, while the Bears are humming along as a nice bet, going 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games.

A little bit of caution, however, as the underdog has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups.

Which is why the total is looking pretty enticing.  Both of these teams can put up points, with Baylor sitting in 13th at 38.3 points per game, and KState in 54th at 30.8.

The total has gone over in the last six Baylor games, while four of the last six Wildcats’ games have also hit the over. With a both teams needing a win to stay in the Big 12 chase, expect a shootout between these two.

The Pick:

• OVER 52.5 points (-113); 1.5 units to win 1.32 units
• Week 10 NCAAF Record: 0-2: Overall: 4-6 ATS, 1-0 ML, 1-2 o/u; -2.45 units