Kentucky vs Iowa Odds, Spread and Preview – Citrus Bowl

• Iowa and Kentucky meet in the Citrus Bowl looking to end good seasons on a winning note
• The matchup will feature Kentucky Head Coach Mark Stoops against his former school
• Read below for an analysis and pick

#15 Iowa (10-3) meets #22 Kentucky (9-3) in an expected defensive slugfest in the Citrus Bowl. The game is slated to kickoff at 1:00 PM EST Saturday on ABC. The tale of both of these seasons for each are similar.

The Hawkeyes spent weeks flirting with the playoff discussion then faltered to finish. The Wildcats flirted with a New Year’s Six Bowl and even threatened to win the SEC East for a bit. Missed opportunities against Tennessee and Mississippi State ruined that for them. They’ll be searching for a tenth win to validate their season.

Iowa vs Kentucky Odds

Odds via FanDuel on December 30th

This matchup will be a return to home of sorts for Kentucky Head Coach Mark Stoops. The 54-year old played there in college and started his coaching career with the Hawkeyes as well. He’s spent some of the bowl build-up talking about how special the game will be for him. Let’s take a look at how things will shake out.

Iowa Will Make Will Levis Throw

This game is fascinating to breakdown because while Kentucky may have more “edges”, Iowa has the biggest. The one that stands out the most is the Hawkeyes rushing defense. Chris Rodriguez heads a run-heavy attack for Kentucky. It’s the bread and butter of their offense that may find tough sledding against Iowa.

Betting note: Kentucky has lost 16 consecutive games dating back to 2001 when rushing for 50 or less. 18 if you go to 51. If you're betting Kentucky on Saturday, its pretty much a lay-up to bet the rushing totals over as well.

— Chris Hatfield (@ChrisDHatfield) December 30, 2021

Iowa ranks 16th in the country in rushing defense success. At times, they have graded out even better than what most folks view as a historic defense in Georgia. It’s the second best rushing defense Kentucky has faced this season behind those Bulldogs. In that game, the Wildcats mustered over 50 yards on the ground. Kentucky has lost 16 consecutive games dating back to 2001 when rushing for 50 or less.

Iowa will do a similar thing that Georgia did and force Kentucky to throw more than they want. QB Will Levis has been good at times, and erratic at others. He’s shown glimpses of potential but is also second in the SEC in interceptions with 12. That’s something that ballhawk Riley Moss (4 interceptions) and Iowa will look to capitalize on.

Mark Stoops Delivers in Bowl Games

In many ways, each of these teams mirror themselves. Both have some elite aspects of their defense. Kentucky struggles a bit in the secondary but it’s questionable that Iowa could make them play for that. Both also want to run the ball and control the time of possession. Because of that, this matchup appears pretty even. What may give the Wildcats the edge? Coaching.

Mark stoops says he loved his playing days at Iowa; says his game jersey was placed in his late father’s casket…

— Big Blue Insider (@bigblueinsider1) December 6, 2021

Stoops tenure at Kentucky has been one marked by consistency. Even if at times it’s the consistency of boredom, it’s been effective. His teams get the job done and come ready to play in their biggest games. Oftentimes, bowl games come down to preparation and which teams want to be there the most. We can likely assume that Kentucky will be the one that wants to be that.

Stoops has won three straight in the postseason after delivering the Wildcats their six-straight bowl berth. If this game comes down to thin margins, his team’s preparation leading up the bowl could make all the difference. Its the personal view of this writer that he’s the better coach in this one.

Best Bet for Iowa vs Kentucky Citrus Bowl

This game will be won by the team that commits the fewest mistakes and turnovers. It’s difficult for me to size up an edge on either side. Both teams have significant advantages working in their favor. Kentucky has the better QB play and skill position play but Iowa has a better defense.

It’s Game Week in the Sunshine State ‼️#Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/Dh4hvsobJE

— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) December 27, 2021

Because of that, I’m looking at the total. I predict both of these teams start slow as they see similar images of themselves when they face off. The only thing I see stopping this is an excessive amount of turnovers leading to short fields.

• Bet: 1H under 21.5 (-108)