- The Kentucky Wildcats are 13.5-point road favorites over the Vanderbilt Commodores in the Saturday, September 23 college football game between these SEC rivals
- Vanderbilt won 24-21 outright over the Wildcats last season as 17-point underdogs
- The Commodores are 3-0 against the spread in their last three meetings with Kentucky
When the Vanderbilt Commodores (2-2, 0-4 ATS) face the Kentucky Wildcats (3-0, 2-1 ATS), they don’t always win. Lately, though, they usually cover.
Vanderbilt is 3-0 against the spread in the last three games against Kentucky. The Commodores are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games between these SEC rivals and 18-8 ATS through the past 26 meetings.
Of course, it’s worth noting that in six of the past 10 games, Kentucky was set as a double-digit point favorite. That’s again the case this year. The Wildcats are the 13.5-point away chalk in the Kentucky vs Vanderbilt odds.
Let’s take a deep dive into the Wildcats vs Commodores odds and offer you our pick for this Week 4 college football game.
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Odds
|Kentucky Wildcats||-555||-13.5 (-115)||Over 50.5 (-115)|
|Vanderbilt Commodores||+400||+13.5 (-105)||Under 50.5 (-105)|
In the Kentucky vs Vanderbilt odds, the Wildcats are -555 moneyline favorites, giving them a 84.73% implied win probability. The total is set at 50.5 points.
Odds as of Sept. 22 at BetMGM. Be sure to claim a BetMGM promo code to bet on Wildcats vs Commodores and other college football Week 4 action this week.
Kentucky is 9-4 straight up in the last 13 visits by the school to Vanderbilt. Coming off a win over the Wildcats last season, the Commodores haven’t beaten the Wildcats in successive years since 2012-13.
Kentucky bettors can wager on the Wildcats in their home state at retail sports betting sites. Legal sports betting launched in the Bluegrass State on Sept. 7. All of the top Kentucky Sports Betting Apps will be launching on Sept. 28.
Kickoff for this game is set for 12:00pm ET on Saturday, September 23 at FirstBank Stadium. The broadcast is being carried by the SEC Network.
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Betting Splits
The college football public betting splits are ignoring recent trends in the Kentucky vs Vanderbilt spread splits by strongly backing the favored Wildcats at -13,5. Kentucky is drawing 71% of handle and 69% of bets. The Commodores are 0-5 ATS in their last five games. The moneyline splits are also going for Kentucky at -555 with 96% of handle and 95% of bets. The Wildcats are 6-1 SU in the last seven games against the Commodores.
The over is also garnering heavy action on the total of 50.5 points. It’s pulling 87% of handle and 85% of bets. However, the under has hit in 11 of Kentucky’s last 12 games.
Kentucky is set with a betting line of +25000 in the National Championship odds. Vanderbilt is given odds of +100000 in this betting market.
Commodores Swann A Passing Fancy
Vanderbilt QB1 AJ Swann leads the SEC in both passing yardage (1,101) and touchdown passes (11). Unfortunately, he’s also been picked off an SEC-high four times. He missed last year’s upset win at Kentucky through injury.
We see you, Shep! pic.twitter.com/afpfbBHh1N
— Vanderbilt Football (@VandyFootball) September 16, 2023
At the other end of Swann’s passes, senior WR Will Sheppard is out front in the SEC in both catches (25) and TD receptions (six). True freshman London Humphreys is a deep threat. Averaging 29.6 yards per reception, Humphreys has already gone for three TDs.
Wildcats Davis Switches Loyalties
A year ago, Wildcats running back Ray Davis was among the stars of Vanderbilt’s upset of Kentucky. He rushed for 129 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries against the Wildcats. He took the transfer portal to Kentucky following the season. Davis has been dynamite in blue. He’s run for 236 yards and three TDs while catching nine passes for 143 yards and two TDs. Davis is averaging 7.2 yards per carry.
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 21, 2023
Wildcats LB Trevin Wallace is leading the SEC with 3.5 sacks. He’s sixth in the conference with 24 tackles. Both Kentucky’s Barion Brown (99 yards) and Vanderbilt’s Jayden McGowan (97 yards) have returned kickoffs for TDs this season.
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Prediction
It’s easy to see why people are backing the over on this game. While Kentucky is scoring 35.7 points per game, good for 41st in the nation, Vanderbilt is 98th in scoring defense, allowing 29.25 points per game. The Commodores also have four defensive starters either out or listed as questionable.
The Wildcats have won each of the last three games at Vanderbilt by more than a two-touchdown margin.
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Pick: Kentucky -13.5 (-115)