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Latest National Championship Odds for Georgia vs TCU – Bulldogs Large Favorites

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Jan 9, 2023 · 3:01 PM PST

Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett raises trophy
Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) raises the SEC championship MVP trophy after the Bulldogs defeated LSU in Atlanta, on Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022. 2022-12-28-stetson bennett
  • The latest National Championship odds heavily favor Georgia over TCU
  • The spread has ticked up in UGA’s favor in the hours leading up to kickoff
  • Read below for the latest National Championship odds for Georgia vs TCU, plus analysis

The National Championship odds suggest Georgia will cruise to victory over TCU in the College Football Championship game on Monday night. The Bulldogs are a large 13-point favorite ahead of kickoff at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles (7:30 PM EST, ESPN).

Georgia is the reigning defending champs and making its third College Football Playoff appearance, while TCU is the ultimate underdog and playing in the CFP for the first time in program history.

The National Championship odds for Georgia vs TCU have been moving leading up to Monday’s kickoff. Let’s dive into the odds and analyze the movement.

National Championship Odds – Georgia vs TCU 

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Georgia -13 (-110) -450 Over 62.5 (-110)
TCU +13 (-110) +360 Under 62.5 (-110)

Odds as of January 9th at DraftKings. Claim the DraftKings promo code for the National Championship. 

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Georgia Favored in National Championship Odds

Georgia is favored by 13 points over TCU in the CFP National Championship game on Monday. This is the largest spread ever for a National Championship game in the College Football Playoff era.

The Bulldogs are -435 on the moneyline against TCU, meaning they have an 81% implied win probability. That’s similar to the ESPN FPI, which lists Georgia with a 73% chance to win.

TCU is listed at +350 on the moneyline, meaning they only have a 22% implied win probability. The ESPN FPI gives the Horned Frogs a 27% chance to pull out the shocking upset.

It’s easy to see why the Bulldogs are big favorites in the National Championship. Kirby Smart’s team hasn’t lost a game in over a year and possesses an elite defense allowing only 12.8 points per game.

The Horned Frogs have been the ultimate cinderella story, reaching the title game as massive preseason longshots. Sonny Dyke’s team defied the odds all season, winning five one-scores games to finish 11-1.

TCU continued its incredible run by winning outright against Michigan in the CFP Fiesta Bowl as nine-point underdogs. Georgia, meanwhile, beat Ohio State 42-41 in the Peach Bowl, failing to cover as five-point favorites.

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Georgia vs TCU Line Movement

There has been some movement in the Georgia vs TCU betting line. The Bulldogs opened as -13.5 favorites, but bettors immediately slammed TCU as underdogs, causing the line to drop to -12.

The Georgia vs TCU betting line rose back up to -13 today, as sharp bettors appear to have bet the Bulldogs. The public betting splits show UGA getting 56% of the spread handle with only 34% of bets.

The Horned Frogs have been a public favorite all season, as they’ve posted a stellar 10-3-1 ATS record. TCU has received 77% of spread wagers, but only 44% of the money, meaning sharps are likely fading the public.

Something interesting to note is that the early look-ahead line for this game (before the CFP Semifinals) was Georgia -15.5. Some overreaction to the two semifinal games has put some value on UGA to cover.

When it comes to the game total, it has been bet up a few points from its open at 60.5. The total rose to 64 during the week, but it dropped a point-and-a-half down to 62.5 today.

Georgia vs TCU Prediction

Our favorite pick for Georgia vs TCU was UGA -7 in the first half. With sharp bettors hitting the Bulldogs today, the first-half line has risen up to -7.5, taking away some of the value.

Georgia is still a solid bet to cover the full-game spread if the line stays under two scores. The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 bowl games and hold a big experience advantage over TCU.

Ohio State was able to score in bunches against UGA, but we expect a return to form for this elite UGA defense. Georgia is only allowing 12.8 points per game, and TCU’s offense isn’t nearly as talented as OSU’s.

TCU has been a great story, but the betting splits and historical trends show which side has the value. Look for Georgia to win by at least two scores as they become the first repeat winner of the National Championship since 2011-12 Alabama.

  • Pick: Georgia -13 (-110)

 

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