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LSU vs Georgia SEC Title Game Picks & Odds: Tigers Favored by 7.5 in Atlanta

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Football

Dec 3, 2019 · 6:45 AM PST

LSU Tigers
No. 2 LSU is a big favorite over No. 4 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Photo by Tammy Anthony Baker (Flickr) [CC License].
  • No. 1 LSU squares off with No. 4 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game (Dec. 7, 4:00 PM ET)
  • The Tigers are 7.5-point favorites
  • LSU features arguably the best offense in the nation, while Georgia boasts one of college football’s top defenses

No. 2 LSU (12-0) clashes with No. 4 Georgia (11-1) in the biggest conference championship game of the weekend (Dec. 7, 4:00 PM ET).

The Tigers are fresh off completing the fourth perfect regular season in school history, while the Bulldogs have just one blemish on their resume.

#4 Georgia vs #2 LSU Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Georgia Bulldogs +7.5 (-120) +230 Over 54.0 (-110)
LSU Tigers -7.5 (+100) -275 Under 54.0 (-110)

Odds taken Dec. 2

LSU opened as a touchdown favorite but the line quickly moved to -7.5. It’s just the third time all season they’ve been favored by less than 11.5-points, while this game marks the first time Georgia’s been an underdog in 2019. A few weeks ago, the look ahead line for this game was hovering around LSU -3.5 to -4.5, but three more blowout out wins by the Tigers has people lining up to bet them.

LSU and Georgia have the second and fourth shortest 2020 CFP National Championship odds, respectively, and this game will be a showdown between the Tigers high powered offense, and the Bulldogs stingy defense.

High Octane Offense

After hanging 46 on Alabama in the ‘Game of the Century’, the LSU offense didn’t experience any kind of letdown in the subsequent three weeks. They racked up 164 points in their final three games of the regular season, including 50 against Texas A&M in their finale.

They scored at least 36 points in all but one game in 2019, and finished second in the nation in scoring, total yards and red zone success rate. QB Joe Burrow is the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman, and broke nearly every passing record in school history.

He leads the country in completion percentage, and ranks second in passing touchdowns, yards and quarterback rating. He’s thrown at least three touchdowns in 10 or 12 games and now faces his toughest test of the season.

Suffocating Defense

As dominant as the Tigers offense has been, the Bulldogs defense deserves just as much praise. They rank second in the nation in points allowed, fourth in yards allowed and third in red zone defense. They’ve held 11 of 12 opposing offenses to 17 points or less, and only once has an opponent reached 20 points against them.

Clemson is the only other program this year that shares that feat, and Georgia’s 10.4 points allowed per game is the lowest mark in school history since 1968. The Bulldogs are incredibly fast and have arguably the best coverage unit in the nation. They’ve yet to allow a quarterback to eclipse 275 passing yards against them, and they’ve held six of 12 opponents to under 180 yards through the air.

The Verdict

These two teams have faced four common opponents this season. In those four games, LSU put up 183 points, while Georgia scored just 94. Yes, this is the best defense that the Tigers have faced, but no team can contain Joe Burrow and company for 60 minutes at the rate they’re playing.

As difficult as it will be to slow down LSU’s offense, the Bulldogs also need to worry about putting points on the board. QB Jake Fromm regressed in a big way this season, registering career lows in completion percentage, touchdown passes, and yards per attempt.

Georgia exceeded 27 points just once in its final seven games and averaged 16 fewer points than the Tigers per game. They just don’t have the firepower to match arguably the best team in the country.

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