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Undefeated Minnesota Heads to Iowa as 3-Point Underdog – Picks & Odds

Minnesota's mascot on the field
The #8 Golden Gophers earned respect from the College Football Playoff selection committee but not from the oddsmakers, who have them as 3-point underdogs on Saturday night. Photo by Maize & Blue Nation / Wiki Commons CC License
  • #8 Minnesota (9-0) upset Penn State last weekend and is now two wins away from the Big Ten title game
  • #20 Iowa (6-3) has lost back to back games scoring a combined 15 points
  • The Gophers are getting a field goal in Iowa City

The #8 Minnesota Golden Gophers (9-0) will travel to Iowa City to face #20 Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3) in Week 12 on Saturday, Nov. 16th. Despite being undefeated and coming off one of the more impressive wins of the year, the Gophers are getting a field goal.

#8 Minnesota vs #20 Iowa Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total at Bovada
#8 Minnesota +3.0 (-115) +125 O 44 (-110)
#20 Iowa -3.0 (-105) -145 U 44 (-110)

*odds taken Nov. 11th

Minnesota pulled off a major upset against Penn State (winning 31-26 as six-point home underdogs) leading to one of the best coach reactions we’ve ever seen.

The Minnesota vs Iowa odds show Iowa as the consensus favorite, but I expect another wild night of celebrating for Fleck and company.

Tanner Morgan is the Real Deal

Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan had a coming-out party against the Penn State defense last weekend. His stats have been great all year – 2,100 yards through the air with 21 touchdowns and 4 interceptions – but it’s what he did to that high-ranked defense that turned heads.

Morgan finished 18 of 20  for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns. That is elite play, and when you look around the Big Ten, he may be the second-best quarterback the conference has to offer behind Ohio State’s Justin Fields. Morgan gives Minnesota a huge advantage in this game when you consider the numbers he was able to put up against a heavy-weight opponent.

Golden Gophers Offense Will Be Too Much For Iowa

Iowa has proven one thing this year and it’s that they love to play boring football games. They’ve been held to 20 points or fewer in three of their last five. They sit 92nd in the nation in scoring at 24.1 PPG. Take away their 48 and 38-point outbursts against two Group-of-Five opponents (Middle Tennessee and Miami-Ohio) and their numbers look even worse.

You can choose to look at this two ways: (1) their merely playing conservative and leaning on a solid defense or (2) they have an offense that simply can’t keep up. I prefer number two.

Minnesota has scored at least 28 points in all nine of its wins this season and is averaging 37.6 points per game. While asking them to reach their season averages in this one may be a tall order, they likely won’t need to.

The Golden Gophers have the 12th-ranked offense and should have more than enough to outlast the meager totals Iowa has been putting up as of late.

All Signs Point to Another P.J. Fleck Celebration

The weather in Iowa City this weekend projects to be slightly above freezing and clear. No snow means no road block for the Minnesota offense. Expect them to put up enough points to not only cover the three-point spread, but win the game outright and move to 10-0 on the season.

PICK: Minnesota Moneyline (+125)

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