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Undefeated SMU Favored by Almost Two TDs vs Houston; Mustangs are 6-1 ATS

Houston Cougars stadium
The Houston Cougars will just hope to keep it respectable against SMU on Thursday night. Photo from Wikimedia Commons. [CCLicense]
  • The SMU Mustangs and Houston Cougars square off on Thursday night (7:30 PM ET, Oct. 24)
  • The Mustangs are 13.5-point favorites and the total is set at 67.5
  • SMU is 6-1 ATS this season and all seven of their games have gone over the total

The #16 SMU Mustangs (7-0, 3-0 AAC) clash with the Houston Cougars (3-4, 1-2 AAC) on Thursday Night (7:30 PM ET, Oct. 24) in Houston.

SMU are 7-0 for the first time since 1982 and are the lone remaining undefeated team in the AAC.

#16 SMU vs Houston Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
SMU Mustangs -515 -13.5 (-105) Over 67.5 (-110)
Houston Cougars +405 +13.5 (-115) Under 67.5 (-110)

*All odds taken 10/22/19.

Our SMU vs Houston odds show the Mustangs are currently favored by 13.5-points, and that the total has risen two points since it opened, and now sits at 67.5. SMU is 6-1 against the spread this season and all seven of their games have gone over the total.

Houston meanwhile, has allowed 31 or more points in four of seven games, and appear ripe for the SMU offense to hang a big number on.

The Mustangs Won’t be Stopped

SMU averages a conference best 44.3 points per game and will look to exploit Houston’s AAC-worst pass defense. The Mustangs put up over 315.4 passing yards per contest, and QB Shane Buechele is fresh off a dominant performance over Temple.

The reigning Walter Camp National offensive player of the week threw for 457 yards and six touchdowns, as SMU racked up 655 yards of offense. Buechele is completing 65% of his passes this season and has a career best passer rating of 155.1.

The Cougars struggle not only against the pass but the run as well. If by some small chance the Mustangs pass offense has an off night, they’ll have no problem exposing Houston on the ground. SMU averages over 200 rushing yards per game, and the Houston rush defense has already surrendered 350+ yards in multiple games this season.

Cougars QB Carousel

There’s a good chance Houston will be forced to rely on their third string quarterback for this game. D’Eriq King played four games before deciding to redshirt for the remainder of the season, and Clayton Tune missed last game with a hamstring injury.

If Tune is down again, the Cougars will go with Dana Holgorsen’s son, Logan, who didn’t exactly wow anyone in his first career start as a walk-on freshman.

Holgorsen completed less than 50% of his passes for only 123 yards, and the Houston offense didn’t convert a 3rd down until their final possession of the game. Keep in mind, they were up against UConn, the fourth lowest graded team in the FBS, who had allowed 191 points in their previous four games. If Tune is out, the Cougars offense will struggle badly.

The Ponies Will Run Wild

The Mustangs are the highest rated Group of Five program and are a nightmare matchup for Houston. SMU will have no problem racking up yards and points, and have more than enough firepower to cover this big spread.

If Tune is somehow able to play, I still like SMU ATS, but the over becomes much more interesting.

Cougars games started by Tune or King this season average 65 total points, and if we expect the Mustangs to hit their season average point total, Houston won’t have to do much to help cover the over.

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