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Nebraska’s Adrian Martinez has Modest Props Set at BetOnline; Good Value on Overs?

Can Adrian Martinez have a monstrous season for the Huskers this year? Photo from NCAAF_365 (Twitter)
  • Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez has a chance to hit the OVER on several prop bets listed at BetOnline
  • He completed 64.6% of his passes as a freshman and finished with 2,617 yards through the air and another 629 on the ground
  • In his 2nd year with head coach Scott Frost it’s reasonable to believe his grasp for the offense will improve leading to higher numbers, especially in the passing game

Nebraska’s awesome new jerseys aren’t the only reason to watch the Cornhuskers this year as standout sophomore QB Adrian Martinez deserves your attention as well.

Martinez was impressive as a freshman and with a full year in head coach Scott Frost’s offense, expecting a step forward in year two certainly seems reasonable. That said, there could be value in props released by BetOnline. Here’s a look at the five options you have along with my pick for each O/U.

Total Interceptions

7.5 Interceptions Odds at BetOnline
Over -115
Under -115

*Odds taken 8/22/19

Last season Martinez tossed 8 picks, so the odds makers aren’t factoring in much of an improvement in that department.

If he throws one less, the under is the play. A couple things to consider here that may sway your decision however: Martinez will likely be asked to throw more this season as the playbook expands, which will could result in more chances at interceptions.

While I expect his game to improve as a whole I do think this could pose a problem. Martinez also lost his favorite target in Stanley Morgan Jr. who moved on to the NFL. More passing attempts and new receivers have me leaning towards taking the OVER here.

PICK: Over (-115)

Total Passing Yards

2650 Passing Yards Odds at BetOnline
Over -125
Under -105

*Odds taken 8/22/19

Martinez had 2,617 passing yards in 2018 and would only need 34 more to hit the over here. The price is -125 but there’s still value at that ticket to make that the play. I mentioned being worried about a heavier role in the passing game leading to more picks but it’ll also lead to more yards. He completed 64.6% of his passes last year, which bodes well when deciding whether he can rack up more yards in 2019.

Expect red shirt freshman Andre Hunt and returner JD Spielman to play a big role in a high volume passing attack this season, which will help hit the OVER here. Of all the props for Martinez, I’m most comfortable with this one.

PICK: Over (-125)

Rushing TD’s

7.5 Rushing TD Odds at BetOnline
Over -115
Under -115

*Odds taken 8/22/19

Martinez wasn’t only impressive with his arm last year, he proved he could run the football as well.  He plunged into the end zone 8 times and that would be enough to hit the over here.

In the red zone he won’t be afraid to use his legs, so I don’t expect a dip here from Martinez. If he remains healthy, not only do I think the OVER is the play here but I also think Martinez could comfortably reach double digits.

PICK: Over (-115)

Total Rushing Yards

625 Rushing Yards Odds at BetOnline
Over -115
Under -115

*Odds taken 8/22/19

This is the sucker bet I want to caution you about. When you look at the 2019 Heisman Trophy Odds it’s easy to piece together that Martinez will need to be electric both through the air and on the ground to contend.

The issue here is, it’s unlikely Martinez will match his production in this category. He ran for 629 yards last year but with more expected from him in the passing game I don’t think he’ll end up that high again this year.

He’ll still be relied upon in the red zone but the yards don’t really rack up fast plunging in from the 2 yard line.  Fade the OVER here and avoid making a mistake the odds makers are trying to bait you into.

PICK: Under (-115)

Total TD Passes

18.5 Passing TD Odds at BetOnline
Over -115
Under -115

*Odds taken 8/22/19

Remember the name JD Spielman. He’s the receiver that’s going to help Martinez hit the OVER in this prop bet.

Spielman tallied 818 yards receiving last year despite missing two games and was named the top receiver on the team while making the third team all Big 10. Stepping into the go-to guy role, Spielman is expecting to have a season of well over 1,000 yards, which in turn should lead to good things for Martinez behind center as well.

After throwing for 17 touchdowns as a freshman I don’t think it’s too much to ask Martinez to toss for 19 in 2019. Take the OVER and don’t think twice with this one.

PICK: Over (-115)

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