Upcoming Match-ups

Notre Dame Getting 80% of Betting Handle on the Road at Michigan; Fighting Irish Now Favored After Opening as Underdogs

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Oct 25, 2019 · 4:45 PM PDT

Notre Dame vs Michigan at the Big House
No. 8 Notre Dame is now favored at No. 19 Michigan in Week 9 after opening as small road underdogs. Photo by Michael Barera (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • No. 8 Notre Dame opened as small road underdogs at No. 19 Michigan in Week 9
  • The majority of the early money has been on the Fighting Irish though, who are now favored
  • The Wolverines have a very poor record vs top-10 teams under Jim Harbaugh

No. 8 Notre Dame visits No. 19 Michigan this Saturday (October 26, 7:30 PM EST) . The Fighting Irish are 5-1 and battling for a spot in the CFP, while the Wolverines have fallen out of the race with losses to Wisconsin and Penn State.

Michigan opened as small home favorites in the Notre Dame vs Michigan odds, but the early money has been on the Irish and the point spread has moved in favor of Notre Dame.

With bettors hammering the Fighting Irish, is there value in taking Michigan?

Notre Dame vs Michigan Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Notre Dame (#8) -1.5 (-105) -120 O 51.0 (-110)
Michigan (#19) +1.5 (-115) EVEN U 51.0 (-110)

Odds collected Oct 25.

Fighting Irish Seeing 80% Of The Betting Handle

Sportsbooks report that 80% of their handle and 71% of tickets are on the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame had a bye week after beating USC 30-27 in Week 7, while Michigan is coming off a 28-21 loss to Penn State in Week 8.

Notre Dame has the better record this year and has also been the better team against the spread. The Fighting Irish are 4-2 ATS, while the Wolverines are 3-4. Michigan did cover the spread last week, however, while Notre Dame failed to cover against USC.

Notre Dame Vs Michigan History

The Fighting Irish have won their last two games against Michigan, including a 24-17 victory in South Bend last year. Notre Dame was ranked No. 12 at the time last year, while the Wolverines were ranked No. 14. Current Michigan QB Shea Patterson made his Wolverines debut in that game.

While Notre Dame has won the last two meetings overall, Michigan has won the last four meetings in Ann Arbour. The Wolverines has won seven of the last eight games against the Fighting Irish at the Big House, although the two teams haven’t played at Michigan Stadium since 2013.

Bettors Don’t Trust Michigan

The Wolverines have failed to live up to preseason expectations this season and don’t have the trust of bettors heading into Week 9. Many predicted Michigan would win the Big 10, but instead they’ve struggled with consistency en route to a 5-2 record.

Notre Dame has been much more trustworthy this season. The Fighting Irish have looked solid every week and their only loss this season came at the hands of a ranked Georgia team in Week 3.

Notre Dame is still competing for a spot in the CFP, while Michigan has been outplayed by Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Minnesota in the Big 10 and are no longer in the playoff conversation.

Jim Harbaugh Vs Top 10 Teams

The Wolverines have a horrible record against Top 10 teams under head coach Jim Harbaugh. While Michigan is 41-16 overall in the Harbaugh era, the Wolverines are just 1-10 against Top 10 teams in that span.

Notre Dame is another Top 10 team that will present a challenge for the Wolverines. Michigan doesn’t seem to have an answer come against the nation’s best teams, with their last win against a Top 10 team being over No. 8 Wisconsin in 2016.

The positive for the Wolverines is that seven of their 11 losses to Top 10 teams under Harbaugh have come on the road. They get to return to the Big House to face Notre Dame after almost completing a comeback against a Top 10 Penn State team in Week 8.

Michigan’s Big House Advantage 

Notre Dame isn’t seeing an overwhelming amount of the tickets because this game takes place at Michigan Stadium. It’s very hard for any team to earn a victory a victory at the Big House, as the Wolverines have a 15-2 home record since 2017.

Notre Dame may be the better team entering this game, but Michigan has a huge advantage playing at the Big House. It’s always an electric atmosphere and the Wolverines will be eager to rebound after their loss to Penn State.

Notre Dame has also struggled on the road against Top 25 teams under head coach Brian Kelly. The Fighting Irish are just 2-10 against Top-25 opponents on the road since 2013, losing those 10 games by an average of 13.1 points.

How Should You Bet? 

Notre Dame has been the better team this season, but betting against Michigan at the Big House is always risky.

Notre Dame has a very strong defense, but so does Penn State, and Michigan gashed them for a season-high 417 yards in Week 8. QB Shea Patterson had a very strong second half and Michigan could have won that game had their talented wide receivers not had six dropped passes.

Jim Harbaugh’s record vs Top 10 teams is worrisome, but Notre Dame isn’t good on the road against Top 25 teams. I’d rather bet on Harbaugh silencing his critics then that trend continuing this week at the Big House. This will be an electric atmosphere and Michigan is going to be motivated to bounce back after losing to Penn State.

Michigan has been inconsistent, but this is still a talented team with a big home-field advantage. The best value is taking the Wolverines moneyline.

Pick: Michigan (EVEN)

Author Image