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Notre Dame vs North Carolina Odds, Lines and Best Bet

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Football

Sep 22, 2022 · 8:30 AM PDT

Notre Dame runs out onto the field
Sep 17, 2022; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman leads his players out of the tunnel before the game against the California Bears at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
  • North Carolina is a 2-point favorite over Notre Dame on Saturday, September 24th at 3:30 pm ET at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, NC
  • The Tar Heels boast the nation’s fifth highest-scoring offense, but rank 120th in scoring defense
  • Read below for the Notre Dame vs North Carolina odds, analysis and betting prediction

North Carolina (3-0, 0-0 ACC) is off to a perfect 3-0 start, but we won’t find out until Saturday just how good they really are. The Tar Heels have been scoring at will early on, but have yet to play a team ranked inside the top-55 per SP+. That will change in Week 4, as they host Notre Dame (1-2) at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill.

The Fighting Irish are currently the 18th best team in the nation per SP+, 26 spots higher than UNC. Oddsmakers aren’t quite so bullish on Notre Dame though, as they made the Tar Heels the chalk in the college football odds.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +2 (-110) +105 O 55.5 (-110)
North Carolina Tar Heels -2 (-110) -125 U 55.5 (-110)

Odds as of September 21st at Barstool Sportsbook. Get the Barstool Sportsbook promo code

North Carolina is favored by 2-points, in a contest that features a total of 55.5. The action is pretty evenly divided in terms of spread wagers, but the same cannot be said about the total. Just 48% of the over/under tickets as of Wednesday is on under 55.5, but those wagers represent 82% of the money bet on the total.

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Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage. It’s currently projecting for a perfect day for football, as sunshine and 77 degree temperatures are in store.

North Carolina Betting Analysis

Through three games, the Tar Heels are averaging 51.3 points per outing. They rank fifth in the country in scoring, 10th in yards per play, seventh in yards per pass, and 13th in total rushing.

Freshman QB Drake Maye has taken the college football world by storm, catapulting his way into a top-16 Heisman Trophy odds contender. Maye has completed 74% of his passes so far, for 930 yards and an FBS-best 11 TDs.

Maye has also been an important part of the ground game, with 146 rushing yards and a score. He’s one of three Tar Heels with at least 98 rushing yards this season, led by lead back Omarion Hampton who’s punched in 5 TD.

As for the defense, let’s call a spade a spade. It’s been a mess. North Carolina is coughing up an average of 44.5 points per game, which ranks 120th in the nation. Enemy offenses are averaging 2.83 points per drive against them, which is the second worst defensive mark of any Power-5 program. What’s even worse is that UNC’s first three opponents have been Florida A&M, Appalachian State and Georgia State. Not exactly a who’s who of college football superpowers.

Fortunately for the Tar Heels, Notre Dame enters play with their backup QB and one of the least efficient offenses in the country.

Notre Dame Betting Analysis

The Fighting Irish finally got into the win column last week, beating California at home. They erased a three-point 4th quarter deficit by scoring 10 unanswered, and avoided becoming just the third team in program history to start 0-3.

Notre Dame started the season ranked number five overall, but their offense quickly proved that ranking was not justified. They’re averaging just 18.3 points per game, and rank 100th in the nation in yards per play (4.6). Their starting QB Tyler Buchner is essentially out for the season, and he just happened to be their most dynamic rusher as well.

Sophomore Drew Pyne put up respectable numbers versus Cal in his first start of the season, completing 74% of his throws with two touchdowns. The problem is there was no explosiveness to the offense.

The Irish averaged only 6.5 yards per throw and 4.6 yards per play. Pyne was also guilty of overthrowing receivers and botching snaps, and the fans let the offense hear it.

The Notre Dame faithful was booing the team during the second quarter, and they could have been blown out of their own stadium if not for their defense.

That side of the ball has been elite this season, yielding just 21 points per game. They’re allowing only 4.8 yards per play, while Heisman favorite CJ Stroud and #3 Ohio State managed only 223 passing yards and 21 points in their Week 1 meeting.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina Pick

All three of the Irish’s games so far have produced 47 points or less, and it seems foolish to think this contest could reach 56 points in spite of what we’ve seen from the Tar Heels’ defense.

Notre Dame’s offense averages the fifth fewest points per drive of any Power-5 program, while confidence should be low that Pyne can go on the road and put up big numbers.

On the other side of the ball, the Irish’s defense already proved they can neutralize arguably the most talented offense in the country. It seems likely they can prevent a monster performance from Maye and UNC as well.

Pick: Under 55.5 (-110)

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