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Oklahoma vs Baylor Point Spread Moves From Sooners -9.5 to -10; Picks & Odds

Oklahoma Sooners chuckwagon on the field
#10 Oklahoma is a big favorite on the road versus #13 Baylor in Week 12. Photo by John Silks (Wiki Commons). [CC License].
  • #10 Oklahoma is now a 10-point favorite at #13 Baylor on Saturday (Nov. 16, 7:30 PM ET)
  • The Sooners own the nation’s top scoring offense, while the Bears lead the Big 12 in scoring defense
  • Oklahoma is 4-5 ATS this season and 1-3 away from home

The Big 12 matchup of the year takes place this Saturday in Waco, Texas (Nov. 16, 7:30 PM ET) and undefeated Baylor is being shown little respect at online sportsbooks. The 13th-ranked Bears are now 10-point home underdogs to 10th-ranked Oklahoma, after opening at +9.5 earlier in the week.

#10 Oklahoma vs #13 Baylor Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total at BetOnline
Oklahoma Sooners -10.0 (-105) -365 Over 67.5 (-115)
Baylor Bears +10.0 (-115) +305 Under 67.5 (-105)

Odds taken Nov. 13

Baylor is 3-26 all-time versus Oklahoma and hasn’t beaten its conference rival since 2014. Despite a 9-0 start, the Bears are the lowest-ranked undefeated team after 10 weeks in the College Football Playoff era. Five of their last seven games have been decided by one score, including a triple-OT victory in Week 11 at TCU.

Much of their recent success has been thanks to a defense that has allowed the fewest points in the Big 12. They’re going to need an elite effort from that unit versus the Sooners, as Oklahoma is second in the nation in points per game. The Sooners rank first in total yards per game and have scored 132 points in their last three outings.

Strength vs Strength

The Sooners offense has produced back-to-back Heisman Trophy winners, and Jalen Hurts is putting up numbers that few can rival at the collegiate level. He ranks first in passer efficiency (219.7) and has accounted for 3,611 yards and 39 total touchdowns in just nine games.

He’s led the Oklahoma offense to at least 34 points in every game this season, and 41 or more points in eight of nine contests. Now comes his biggest test of the season: a Baylor defense that hasn’t allowed more than 27 points in regulation and has held five of its nine opponents to 17 points or fewer.

The Sooners are known for jumping out to big leads, but that will be tough against a Bears teams that’s allowing just 4.5 first-half points per game this season.

It would be foolish to think that Baylor will be able to completely neutralize the Oklahoma attack, which means the Bears will need to show up on offense if they want to keep this game close.

The Bears Offense Needs to Bounce Back

Baylor has scored a combined total of 26 points in regulation over their last two games. They failed to reach 300 yards of total offense in either outing and have looked nothing like the team that averaged 39 points in their first seven games. Luckily, a matchup versus the Sooners is a potential get-right spot. Oklahoma has surrendered 41 points in back-to-back games to Kansas State and Iowa State, two offenses that were ranked much lower than Baylor’s up until last week.

Oklahoma has surrendered 41 points in back-to-back games to Kansas State and Iowa State, two offenses that were ranked much lower than Baylor’s up until last week.

They’ve done a masterful job at shutting down lousy teams, but have struggled against competent offensive programs. The Sooners have a +136 point differential versus Power 5 schools with a losing record, but just a +1 point differential against Power 5 schools with a winning record.

Make no mistake, this Bears offense isn’t loaded with future Sunday talent, but they’re more than capable of finding the endzone versus Oklahoma.

Back Baylor at Home

The Sooners have no business being 10-point road favorites versus a 9-0 Bears team. Oklahoma has struggled to cover spreads this season, as evident in our Sooners vs Bears odds, and are 1-3 ATS away from home.

Baylor critics seem eager to point out that the Bears have faced a weak schedule thus far, but so has Oklahoma. Baylor has two wins over top-25 opponents, including a victory versus a Kansas State team that dealt the Sooners their only loss a few weeks ago.

Undefeated home underdogs are 15-4-1 ATS after Week 10 since 1982, and I like the Bears to continue that trend. Back the Bears +10.

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