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Oklahoma Opens as 9.5-Point Road Favorite at Baylor in Week 12

Jalen Hurts preparing to throw a pass
Jalen Hurts and Oklahoma square off with Baylor in a crucial Big 12 tilt. Photo from @OUSportsExtra (Twitter)
  • #9 Oklahoma (8-1) opens as a 9.5-point road favorite at #12 Baylor (9-0)
  • The Sooners defeated Iowa State (42-41) on Saturday, and Baylor survived in triple overtime against TCU (29-23)
  • We preview the Big 12 showdown below, and predict how the line might shift heading into Week 12

After a week in which both Oklahoma and Baylor survived close affairs with Big 12 opponents, the Sooners open as 9.5-point favorites as they travel to Waco for a huge matchup with the Bears. These are the top two teams in the Big 12 this season, and Saturday’s game will provide one of the most intriguing matchups in the NCAAF Week 12 odds.

Oklahoma Sooners vs Baylor Bears Odds

Team Spread
Oklahoma Sooners -9.5 (-110)
Baylor Bears +9.5 (-110)

*Odds taken November 10

Sooners Scared by Iowa State

The Sooners come off of a 42-41 victory over Iowa State. The game was far too close for comfort, and that was only exacerbated by the fact that Oklahoma held a 35-14 lead at halftime.

Over the course of blowing the , the Sooner defense allowed Brock Purdy to throw five touchdowns, and only picked him off on the final 2-point conversion play. The Cyclone running game had its way on Saturday as well, gaining 5.1 yards per carry and 195 total yards on the ground.

Bears Survive in Triple Overtime

With a Grayland Arnold interception in the third overtime period, Baylor moved to 9-0 ahead of their showdown with Oklahoma.

The Bear offense wasn’t particularly strong, gaining only 294 yards and going 6-of-17 on third down. The defense, on the other hand, kept the Bears in the game. Baylor held TCU quarterback Max Duggan to a 43.8% completion percentage, and picked him off on three occasions.

Playoff Hopes Alive

With their victories on Saturday, both Oklahoma and Baylor are still alive in the hunt for the College Football Playoff.

The LSU victory over Alabama on Saturday was a positive one for both of these teams’ playoff chances. The Tigers have a far stronger resume than the Tide, and when competing for one of the last playoff spots, it’ll be easier to win the argument against Alabama’s lackluster schedule.

They still have long 2020 CFP National Championship Odds, but the Sooners and Bears can still play their way into the four-team playoff field. Ohio State (+200), LSU (+250), Clemson (+300), and Georgia (+900) lead the field, but Oklahoma (+1600) and Baylor (+6600) still have an outside shot.

Will This Line Move?

Typically, it would seem that this line would shift towards the Sooners. However, given Oklahoma’s poor recent performance, especially the abysmal second-half on Saturday, public opinion is not high on this team.

At the same time, Baylor is undefeated, but not all records are created equal. The Bears are 9-0, but this their first big game opportunity of the season. Given that it took three overtimes to put away the 4-4 TCU, Baylor doesn’t appear to be the most reliable team either.

Given that the Bears are a home underdog, and Oklahoma’s Saturday struggle happened on a far bigger stage (Baylor’s game was an early kick, while the Sooners played on Fox in primetime), this line could shift towards the Bears.

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