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Peach Bowl Odds – Sharp Money Causes Shift in Ohio State vs Georgia Betting Line

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Dec 31, 2022 · 4:15 PM PST

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Emeka Egbuka celebrates a touchdown
Nov 26, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (2) celebrates a touchdown during the first half of the NCAA football game against the Michigan Wolverines at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch Ncaa Football Michigan Wolverines At Ohio State Buckeyes
  • Sharp bettors have hit the Ohio State vs Georgia betting line ahead of Saturday’s Peach Bowl
  • The Bulldogs are now only favored by 5 points after opening as heavier favorites
  • Read below for the latest Ohio State vs Gerogia bet and money percentages

Money is coming in on Saturday’s College Football Playoff Semifinal game between No. 1 Georgia and No. 4 Ohio State. A bold pick by sharp bettors appears to have drastically shifted the betting odds for the Peach Bowl.

Georgia has been favored by 6.5 points leading up to Saturday Night’s kickoff at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (8:00 PM EST). Professional sports bettors hit the line earlier today, however, causing the line to drop to Georgia -5.

Let’s analyze the betting splits for Georgia vs Ohio State and determine why the line has moved.

Ohio State vs Georgia Betting Splits

Team % of ATS Bets / % of ATS Money % of ML Bets / % of ML Money % of Totals Bets / % of Totals Money
Ohio State Buckeyes 22% / 22% 25% / 29% Ov 61% / 33%
Georgia Bulldogs 78% / 78% 75% / 71% Un 39% / 67%

All data provided December 31 by DraftKings Sportsbook.ย 

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Sharp Bettors Backing Ohio State

It’s a tale as old as time. The public is all over one team in a game but the betting line moves in the opposite direction. This is called a “reverse line move”, and is often a result of sharp bettors betting the opposite side.

We have a prime example of a reverse line move for Saturday’s Peach Bowl game. The betting splits above, provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, show that 78% of the money wagered on the spread is on Georgia to cover.

Although the public is backing the defending National Champs, the line has actually moved a point-and-a-half towards Ohio State. This indicates that the sportsbook has received some serious wagers on Ohio State from bettors they respect (likely sharps).

While Ohio State lost to Michigan this year, it’s important to remember they were a top preseason favorite to win the college football National Championship. The Buckeyes possess a tremendous amount of talent and are very dangerous as an underdog.

There are some interesting betting trends that point to Ohio State covering the spread, including the fact the Buckeyes are 6โ€“2 ATS as an underdog in the CFP era. The professionals likely thought the initial Peach Bowl spread was too high based on their power rankings.

Under Also Top Play for College Football Peach Bowl

The betting splits for Ohio State vs Georgia also tell us that sharps might be on the Under of 62 points. In these marquee college football games, the average bettors love nothing more than to slam the Over and root for a shootout.

The public loving to bet Overs often causes oddsmakers to inflate the total, which places value on the Under. It’s usually not fun rooting for lower-scoring games, but that’s typically where the best betting value is found.

In the Ohio State vs Georgia splits, 61% of bets but only 33% of the money is on the Over. This tells us that while lots of bets are on the Over, the money wagered isn’t substantial. The Under, however, is receiving 67% of the money with only 39% of bets.

Big-money bettors have hit the Under for the Peach Bowl, causing sportsbooks to drop the total from 62.5 to 62. This makes sense when you consider that the Bulldogs are only allowing 12.7 points per game and feature consensus All-American Jalen Carter.

Updated Ohio State vs Georgia Pick & Prediction

How does this shift in the Peach Bowl betting line impact our Ohio State vs Georgia prediction? The Buckeyes are definitely capable of covering this number, but it’s very hard to bet against UGA with how dominant they’ve been the last two seasons.

Sure, Ohio State has been great as an underdog in the CFP era, but UGA typically covers smaller spreads with ease. Kirby Smart’s team is 4-0 ATS this season when favored by 20 points or less, including 3-0 against ranked opponents.

Georgia vs Ohio State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Ohio State +5 (-110) +185 Over 62 (-110)
Georgia -5 (-110) -215 Under 62 (-110)

The main takeaway from this line move is that the sharp likely have faith in Ohio State’s revamped defense under Jim Knowles. Yes, they were exploited by Michigan, but they still only allowed 3.4 yards per carry for the season.

With sharp bettors trusting Ohio State to make this game close, we’re jumping on the Under of 62 points. Georgia hasn’t been exploited by an explosive passing attack all season, including holding Tennessee to under 200 yards through the air.

You can also follow the pros and take Ohio State against the spread, but the line has moved so drastically that lots of the value is gone. The Under, however, has only dropped half a point, and it’s clear there’s some heavy money on it.

Peach Bowl Pick: Under 62 Points (-110)

 

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