Sharps Love Clemson to Cover vs LSU in National Championship Game, But 76% of Handle Is on Joe Burrow’s Tigers

Odds taken Jan. 12

Betting Stats

Sportsbooks report that LSU is receiving 76% of the handle and 60% of all bets at their sportsbook.

While the public is backing the top ranked team in the country, sportsbooks report that an overwhelming 86% of sharp money is actually on Clemson.

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— Clemson Football (@ClemsonFB) January 11, 2020

While there is disparity between the public and pros when it comes to which team will cover the spread, both think it won’t be too high-scoring, sportsbooks report 60% of the handle and 76% of sharp money is on the under.

Public Backing LSU

It should come as no surprise that the public is heavily backing LSU in the National Championship Game. LSU has won 15 straight games and have taken down six Top-10 teams in the process. QB Joe Burrow won the Heisman and leads the most prolific offense in the country.

Looks like a Heisman Trophy Winner and National Champion ? pic.twitter.com/IuU92p9KBi

— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) January 11, 2020

The public is also siding with the Tigers due to their excellent showing against Oklahoma in the CFP semi-final. LSU went off for 63 points while limiting QB Jalen Hurts and the best offense in the Big 12 to just 322 yards and 28 points. The Tigers are playing very strong defense, and having held their three previous opponents to under 20 points before shredding the Sooners.

Another key reason for the overwhelming LSU handle is that this is basically a home game for the Tigers. The Mercedes-Benz Superdome is just 80 miles from Tiger Stadium, so bettors are expecting LSU to feed off the crowd and rise to the occasion behind their fans.

Sharps Love Clemson

While the public is siding with LSU, an overwhelming amount of sharp money has come in on Clemson. The Tigers have a nation-best 29-game winning streak and haven’t lost since Jan. 1, 2018 when they fell to Alabama in the CFP semi-final.

Sharps love Clemson to cover due to their prior playoff experience and the elite play of QB Trevor Lawrence. The Tigers won the National Championship over the Crimson Tide last season and are a stellar 10-1 ATS in their last 11 bowl games.

Lawrence has been incredible in the second half of the season, throwing 22 TD passes with no interceptions in his last seven games and completing over 70% of his passes in that span. Lawrence has yet to lose in his college career and sharps believe that the Tigers QB is just as good, if not better, than the Heisman winner on the opposing side.

Professional bettors also know that if any team is capable of shutting down this LSU offense, it’s Clemson. The Tigers lead the country in both scoring defense (11.50) and passing defense (151.5 YPG) and have had two weeks to prepare for Burrow.

Under is Popular Play

While Burrow and Lawrence are arguably the two best quarterbacks in college, the under is being slammed in the championship game. Sharps in particular strongly believe the total will stay under 69 points.

In the 2nd half of its last 3 CFP games – vs Alabama, Notre Dame and Ohio State – Clemson’s defense has more QB sacks (9) than it has allowed points (7).

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) January 7, 2020

Clemson has surrendered over 20 points just once this season, and it was to a dangerous Buckeyes offense (23) in the semi-final. LSU limited two very strong offenses in Georgia and Oklahoma to a total of just 38 points.

Sharps also know that the under has hit in three of Clemson’s last four games and in two of LSU’s last three. Both these teams have prolific offenses, but Clemson’s defense is elite and LSU’s has only gotten better as the season has progressed.