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Spread and Total Shift After Boise State vs Florida State Is Moved to Tallahassee Due to Hurricane Dorian

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in College Football

Updated Apr 14, 2020 · 12:18 PM UTC

Doak Campbell Stadium
Saturday's Florida State-Boise State game was moved from Jacksonville to the Seminoles' Doak Campbell Stadium due to Hurricane Dorian. Photo: P. Spisak (Public Domain).
  • Hurricane Dorian’s pending arrival resulted in Saturday’s Florida State vs Boise State game being relocated to the Seminoles’ Doak Campbell Stadium
  • Florida State immediately jumped from 5.0 to 6.5-point favorites
  • The Seminoles have lost their last two home openers

Is weather permitting the Florida State Seminoles a better chance of defeating the Boise State Broncos? The sportsbooks appear to be of that opinion.

On Thursday, it was announced that FSU’s season opener was being moved because of Hurricane Dorian. The matchup with Boise State was slated for Jacksonville, a neutral-site location. It will now be played at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, home of the Seminoles, this Saturday (Aug. 29, 7:00 PM ET).

The odds for Boise State vs Florida State immediately jumped in from FSU -5.0 to FSU -6.5.

Boise State vs Florida State Odds

School Moneyline (pre-move) Moneyline (post-move) Spread (pre-move) Spread (post-move) Over/Under (pre-move) Over/Under (post-move)
Boise State +160 +215 +5 (-105) +6.5 (-105) Over 51.5 (-115) Over 52.0 (-115)
Florida State -190 -240 +5 (-115) +6.5 (-115) Under 51.5 (-105) Under 52.0 (-105)

Odds taken 8/27/19. Current odds in bold.

The Seminoles opened as the four-point chalk over the Broncos.

Safety First For Florida State-Boise State

Jacksonville mayor Lenny Curry chose to move the game. He indicated the ultimate decision to relocate was as much about the safety of the spectators as it was about the competing teams.

An event like this attracts thousands of visitors to town from both schools. Suppose a major weather event were to take place. That scenario presents the city with significant additional relocation problems in regards to emergency shelter.

The final decision arose from consultation with emergency responders, law enforcement and hurricane preparedness teams at the state and local level.

Hurricane Dorian is a Category 4 storm. It’s expected to be hitting Eastern Florida this weekend.

Home Not Sweet For Seminoles

On the surface, moving from a neutral site – albeit one in their home state – to their home stadium should favor the Seminoles. That’s certainly the way the sportsbooks are seeing this game play out.

Florida State was a five-point favorite when the game was slated for Tallahassee. That quickly jumped to seven points upon announcement of the relocation of the game to Doak Campbell Stadium.

Interestingly, it dialed back to 6.5 points almost as rapidly. Perhaps bettors began researching Florida State’s recent home record.

The Seminoles dropped their last two home openers. Last season, the #19 Seminoles were dumped 24-3 by #20 Virginia Tech. In 2017, North Carolina State came to town and edged #12 Florida State 27-21.

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Florida State was 4-3 at home in 2018. Overall, the Seminoles are 9-9 straight up in their last 18 home games. They’re 6-8 against the spread in their last 14 at home.

They lost outright as favorites in each of their last two home openers.

A Brief History Of Weather-Relocated NCAA Games

Last season, Hurricane Florence wreaked havoc on the Week 3 NCAA football schedule. Eight games needed to be moved. The storm caused cancelation of 10 other games.

One game ended up being played at a new locale due to the storm. The Ohio at Virginia game was moved to Nashville.

This change led to more money wagered on Virginia. It mattered little in the outcome. The Cavaliers went from 4.5 to seven-point favorites and won 45-31.

In 2005, Hurricane Katrina was devastating to Tulane University. Playing their entire slate on the road, the Green Wave went 2-9. As a result, they finished second-last in Conference USA.

Bet The Broncos

Considering their recent spate of home failures, Florida State might’ve felt better opening elsewhere.

However, Boise State loves the road underdog role. For instance, they’re 4-0 outright as an underdog. They’ve won their last two as road underdogs both SU and ATS.

Play Boise State on the moneyline and take the points.

Picks: Boise State ML (+215) & Boise State +6.5

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