- Texas has lost the first game of the season to Maryland. Again
- The Longhorn’s national championship odds are a lot shorter than you might expect
- It’s not because they beat Tulsa so soundly!
How are Texas’ national championship odds reacting to their slow start in year two under Tom Herman? About as reasonably as Texas fans themselves! That’s not a coincidence!
Texas National Championship Average Odds
2018 National Championship Odds
|School||National Title Odds|
These odds as of 9/11/2018.
Let’s dig into why Texas’ odds might seem a little strange.
2018 Texas Schedule and Results
Here’s Texas’ first four games, with the results for the two games they’ve played and the date for the games they haven’t played.
|at Maryland||L 34-29|
|vs Tulsa||W 28-21|
|vs USC||TBD September 9th|
|vs TCU||TBD September 22nd|
Texas started the season by seeking revenge against Maryland, against whom they suffered an embarrassing loss last year. The game started with a touching/slightly uncomfortable moment, in which Maryland took the field with ten men to honour Jordan McNair, who died after suffering heat exhaustion in training.
On the first play of the game, Maryland lined up without a right guard to honor the late Jordan McNair.
Texas declined the delay of game penalty. Special moment. pic.twitter.com/5KndasbPJx
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) September 1, 2018
I say it’s weird because Jordan McNair’s death was at least partially the result of Maryland’s coaching culture and institutional disregard for safety. Anyway, it was nice of Texas to decline the penalty. It was maybe too nice for Texas to lose the game. Again. Another inauspicious start to Tom Herman’s forthcoming DYNASTY at Texas.
Texas bounced back in their home opener by… beating Tulsa 28-21. It was an absolute skin-of-the-teeth win, and one that does not look at all promising for the Longhorns. Texas was 22.5 point favorites entering that game, and was lucky to escape with a win.
Texas National Championship Odds, Compared
Texas’s average national title odds are shorter than Stanford, Mississippi State, West Virginia, and Texas A&M. Here’s what those teams have done to deserve longer odds than Texas:
- Stanford beat San Diego State and USC
- Mississippi State blew out Stephen F Austin and beat Kansas State handily
- West Virginia blew out Youngstown State and Tennessee
- Texas A&M blew out Northwestern State and very nearly/should have beat Clemson
Notice that none of these teams have lost to Maryland. In fact the only loss here is a narrow loss to Clemson that came down to a probably blown call. Stretching Clemson to their fullest is probably the textbook definition of a “quality loss,” and one the Playoff Committee will regard favorably.
Clemson got the W in a thriller against Texas A&M, including this ? TD pic.twitter.com/CZ0e0d1oyG
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 9, 2018
Those are all much better results than anything Texas has achieved so far. It’s not like Texas has an easy run from here: Oklahoma, USC, and TCU will all be tough games, as will West Virginia and Iowa State. Texas has not yet recorded a win over a Power 5 team, and it very well might be mid-October before they do so.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.