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USC vs Notre Dame Prediction, Odds, Spread and Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Football

Nov 23, 2022 · 7:00 AM PST

USC Trojans celebration
Nov 19, 2022; Pasadena, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) and offensive lineman Mason Murphy (76) celebrate the victory against the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
  • #6 USC is a 5.5-point favorite over #15 Notre Dame in the USC vs Notre Dame odds on Saturday in Week 13
  • The Trojans clinched a Pac-12 title game berth last week, while the Irish have won five straight
  • Keep reading for all the USC vs Notre Dame odds, plus analysis and a betting prediction

Last week, #6 USC (10-1, 8-1 Pac-12) locked up a Pac-12 title berth by knocking off arch-rival #18 UCLA. This week, they can take another step towards the College Football Playoff if they can take care of business versus #15 Notre Dame (8-3, 2-1 away).

Online sportsbooks are bullish on the Trojans’ chances in the college football odds, as they pegged USC as the home chalk ahead of Saturday’s Week 13 matchup.

Notre Dame vs USC Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +5.5 (-110) +180 O 64.5 (-110)
USC Trojans -5.5 (-110) -210 U 64.5 (-110)

Odds as of November 23 at DraftKings. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code.

The Trojans are currently 5.5-point favorites, in a contest that features a total of 64.5. The early spread betting action is split directly down the middle, while the under is drawing 54% of the total handle.

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Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in LA, California. ABC will have the broadcast coverage, while the forecast is currently calling for clear skies and 64-degree game-time temperatures.

USC Trojans Betting Analysis

USC enters play with a +155 price tag in the College Football Playoff odds to be one of the last four teams standing. That’s the fifth shortest price, and their playoff hopes will likely depend on either #4 TCU or #3 Michigan stumbling down the stretch.

That is of course if the Trojans can take down Notre Dame on Saturday, and then claim victory in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Last week they won a thrilling 48-45 shootout over the Bruins. QB Caleb Williams was the catalyst and his 503 yards of total offense in the biggest game of the season to date, likely cemented his place in New York as a finalist in the Heisman Trophy odds.

Williams threw for 470 yards and 2 TDs, while rushing for 33 yards and a score. It was the second most passing yards by a Trojan quarterback in the 92 editions of their rivalry with UCLA. Williams has accounted for 23 touchdowns in his last five outings, and at least 398 total yards on four different occasions during that stretch.

The victory was also USC’s first over a ranked program all season, after losing to #14 Utah earlier in the year. Lincoln Riley’s team played without the Pac-12’s leading rusher Travis Dye, but Austin Jones filled in admirably rushing for 120 yards and two scores.

If there’s an area of concern for the Trojans, it’s certainly not their offense that averages 43 points per outing. It’s the defense. They’ve surrendered 35+ points in four of their past five games, and rank 88th in yards allowed and 102nd against the pass.

Notre Dame Betting Analysis

The Fighting Irish meanwhile, enter play winners of five straight. They already ended #8 Clemson’s National Championship hopes earlier this year, and will be looking to do the same to USC.

They’re fresh off a 44-0 thumping of Boston College, where they outgained their opponent by 264 yards. Notre Dame scored at least 35 points for the fifth straight contest, accomplishing the feat for the first time since 1942.

The Fighting Irish rushed for 281 yards, at 7.4 yards a clip, and scored four times on the ground. They rank 37th in scoring and 31st in points per play this season, doing most of their damage with the run game. They average 191 rushing yards per contest, compared to only 189 yards through the air.

Defensively, however, is where the team makes its mark. They rank 18th in the country in scoring defense and 17th in yards against.

The matchup versus the high-octane Trojans is tough, but Notre Dame has excelled versus strong teams all season. They’ve posted three victories over ranked opponents, and held #2 Ohio State to only 21 points at the start of the campaign.

USC vs Notre Dame Prediction

The Fighting Irish covered in all three of those games, and tend to play up or down to their competition. They’re 4-0 against the spread as underdogs or when the line is a pick’em, but just 1-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite.

Notre Dame has covered in all three true away games, while the Trojans have shown cracks of vulnerability in conference play. They’re only 4-4 against the spread in their last eight conference games, failing to separate as large favorites versus Arizona and California over the past month.

USC vs Notre Dame Recent History

Date Away Team Home Team Result
10/23/2021 USC Notre Dame ND, 31-16
10/12/2019 USC Notre Dame ND, 30-27
11/24/2018 Notre Dame USC ND, 24-17
10/21/2017 USC Notre Dame ND, 49-14
11/26/2016 Notre Dame USC USC, 45-27

USC’s offense has been bailing them out time and time again, but scoring won’t come easy against this strong Irish defense. On the other side of the ball, the Trojans’ defensive play is a major red flag.

Expect this game to come down to the wire, and for Notre Dame to reward bettors as an underdog yet again. For what it’s worth, the Fighting Irish have taken each of the past four meetings, including in LA back in 2018.

Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish +5.5 (-110)

 

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