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USC Laying 13.5 Points on the Road at Colorado; Buffaloes 2-6-1 ATS as Home Underdog Since 2015

USC football players celebrate a TD
The USC Trojans are 13.5-point favorites on Friday versus the Colorado Buffaloes. Photo by Neon Tommy (flickr)
  • The USC Trojans and Colorado Buffaloes square off on Friday night (9:00 PM ET, Oct. 25)
  • The Trojans are 13.5-point favorites and the total is set at 62.0
  • USC is 13-0 all-time versus Colorado

The USC Trojans (4-3, 3-1 AAC) and Colorado Buffaloes (3-4, 1-2 AAC) square off this Friday (9:00 PM ET, Oct. 25) in an Pac-12 battle under the lights. USC is fresh off a blowout win over Arizona, while Colorado has been outscored 86-13 in back-to-back losses.

USC vs Colorado Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
USC Trojans -550 -13.5 (-110) Over 62.0 (-115)
Colorado Buffaloes +445 -13.5 (-110) Under 62.0 (-105)
  • All odds taken 10/22/19.

USC opened as 12.5-point favorites according to our Trojans vs Buffaloes odds, and that number has already been bet up a full point. USC is 13-0 all-time versus Colorado, and the Buffaloes are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as home underdogs. On paper this seems like a total mismatch, but the Trojans are riddled with injuries at key positions, which should allow the underdogs to keep this game close.

Wounded Trojans

USC dominated last week versus Arizona but the victory came at a cost. The Trojans entered the game with major injury concerns and lost six more players, including defensive studs Talanoa Hufanga and Drake Jackson.
They were able to shut down the Wildcats through three quarters, but as the injuries piled up, Arizona’s offensive success increased.

Now the Trojans have to go on the road, on a short week, missing several key starters. Not only are they banged up on defense, but on offense as well. They’re currently starting their third string QB Kedon Slovis, and after two more backfield injuries, they’re rolling with fourth string running back Kenan Christon. Fortunately for USC fans, Christon is likely just as talented as any running back on the roster, and electrified the home crowd last Saturday with his breakaway speed.

Can Colorado Capitalize?

The rash of injuries is a welcome sight for Colorado, who has been abysmal on offense over the last two weeks. Senior QB Steven Montez has a 0-6 TD to INT ratio over that stretch, and has failed to eclipse 131 passing yards in either outing. His poor play has drastically limited star receiver Laviska Shenualt, who has just nine receptions over his last three games.

Shenault, a 1,000 yard receiver a season ago, is now in a prime position to bounce back against this wounded USC defense, as is Alex Fontenot and the Buffaloes ground game. Colorado is 2-1 when they give Fontenot at least 19 carries, and even when the Trojans were healthy they struggled versus the run.

Some early success on the ground could open things up for Montez through the air, but Colorado will need to protect the football. They’ve committed seven turnovers in the last two games, and if they’re careless with the ball on Friday it could be a long night.

Plug Your Nose and Take the Buffaloes

USC is the superior team, but this line has gotten out of control. There’s no reason for them to be favored by this much on the road, on a short week, especially given all the injuries they’ve suffered.

They’re winless away from home this season and their success in this game rests largely on the shoulders of inexperienced players. Yes, the Buffaloes have looked atrocious lately, but they’re back at home on National tv, and should be able to put up enough of a fight to cover the number.

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