USC vs Notre Dame Odds, Spread and Picks (Saturday, Oct. 14)

• No. 21 Notre Dame is a three-point home favorite over No. 10 USC in Week 7
• The Trojans are coming off an ugly OT win over Arizona as three-touchdown favorites, while Notre Dame was routed on the road at Louisville
• See the USC vs Notre Dame odds, predictions, and betting trends for Oct. 14, 2023

The No. 10 USC Trojans (6-0, 2-0 away, 2-4 ATS) held onto their perfect record by the skin of their teeth last week and now face by far their toughest test of the season as they travel to face the No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2, 2-1 home, 5-1-1 ATS) in South Bend, IN, this Saturday.

Kick off for this annual rivalry game is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET at Notre Dame Stadium, and the odds favor the Irish making it six straight home wins in the series.

USC vs Notre Dame Odds

Notre Dame is a three-point home favorite and -140 on the moneyline to win straight-up. The game total is 60.0, which is 4.5-points higher than any other Notre Dame game this season and, simultaneously, two points lower than any other 2023 USC game.

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Odds as of Oct. 14, 2023, at Caesars. Get a Caesars sign-up bonus to wager on Week 7 college football. 

When the Week 7 NCAAF odds first opened last Sunday, Notre Dame was laying just 2.5. But as the college football public betting splits show, the vast majority of the early money has been on the Irish, pushing the spread up half a point. As of Thursday afternoon, 68% of ATS handle and 98% of moneyline handle was on Notre Dame.

Trojans Survive Scare Against Arizona

Led by yours truly, expectations for USC’s Week 6 game against Arizona were for complete and utter domination, at least on the offensive side of the ball. But reigning Heisman-winner Caleb Williams and the Trojans got off to a very slow start at home against the Wildcats, falling in an early 17-0 hole – while failing to score a first-quarter TD for the first time since Nov. 2022 – before rallying for a 43-41 triple-OT victory.

USC entered that game as 21.5-point favorites while the game total opened at 71.5, meaning oddsmakers were roughly projecting a 46-25 USC victory. Yet regulation ended 28-28 and Williams managed just 219 yards and one touchdown including the OT periods.

In the aftermath, Williams ceded his status as favorite in the 2023 Heisman odds to Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. Arizona’s recipe for success was to pound the rock, churn clock, and keep USC’s defense on the field. They wound up dominating time of possession (35:39 to 24:21) while piling up 203 rushing yards on 42 attempts.

Redshirt freshman QB Noah Fifita, who was filling in for Jayden de Laura due to injury, was phenomenal through the air, as well, with 303 yards and five TDs on 25-of-35 passing. The same USC defense that was shredded by Fifita et al. is now staring down the barrel of prolific Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman, who averaged 285 passing yards and 2.7 touchdowns per game with Wake Forest last season.

Hartman hasn’t been as prolific with the Irish (245 YPG), especially the past three weeks against his first ranked opponents of the season (combined 54-of-93 for just 651 yards, three TDs, and three INTs). But he’s shredded the lesser defenses he’s faced – 1,061 yards,13 TDs and no INTs from Weeks 1 to 4 – and that’s precisely what USC is bringing to South Bend this week.

USC was the only top-25 team that dropped in the rankings despite winning in Week 6 (from No. 9 to No. 10). Of course, that one-position drop pales in comparison to Notre Dame, which dropped 11 spots after getting smashed 33-20 at Louisville.

USC vs Notre Dame Betting Trends

The Trojans have been an over-bettor’s dream so far. They are 5-1 to the over in 2023. Only their Week 3 meeting with Stanford, which finished 56-10 against a game total of 70, managed to stay under.

The Irish have a 3-4 over/under record, with each of their last three games staying under the total. Last season’s meeting with the Trojans – a 38-27 USC victory – nudged past the total of 62.5 by less than a field goal.

While USC won last year’s game, this rivalry has heavily skewed to the Irish over the past decade. Notre Dame has won seven of the past ten, including five of the last seven, and USC has been particularly pitiful on the road, losing five straight in South Bend. The Trojans’ last win at Notre Dame was a 31-17 victory in 2011 when Matt Barkley and Robert Woods were spearheading the offense. Three of their last four setbacks in South Bend came by double-digits.

The Week 7 college football player props list both quarterbacks with a passing TD over/under of 2.5, but Williams’ odds to go over are sitting at +115, while Hartman is at a longer +139. Williams had thrown at least two TD passes in each of USC’s first five games before being held to just one by Arizona.

Hartman has tossed three or more TD passes in just three of seven games this year, and none of his past three; he had one versus Ohio State, none at Duke, and two at Louisville.

USC vs Notre Dame Prediction

The Irish put in a truly ugly performance last week in Louisville, but that was on the road against a Cardinals team that’s better than anyone is giving them credit for. At home, the Irish have hammered Tennessee State (56-3) and Central Michigan (41-17) while coming within a yard of taking down then-No. 6 (currently No. 3) Ohio State.

There are too many holes in this USC defense to expect them to beat a solid Notre Dame team that’s playing at home and will be eager to erase the memory of last week. With Audric Estime as the bell-cow, the Irish can run same type of balanced attack that Arizona did last Saturday, and USC just doesn’t have the horses (or the defensive coaching/scheme) to combat a versatile attack. That’s something which has plagued USC since last season, particularly at the tail end. In 2022, the Trojans surrendered at least 37 points in their final five non-home games (including neutral sites games with Utah and Tulane).

The Irish add another home win over USC to their streak.

USC vs Notre Dame Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish moneyline (-140)