Virginia vs Louisville Prediction, Odds & Props (Thursday, Nov. 9)
- Virginia vs Louisville is an ACC football clash set for Thursday night on ESPN
- The Cardinals are currently 20-point home favorites over the Cavaliers
- Read below for Virginia vs Louisville prediction, odds and props to bet
The Virginia Cavaliers (2-7, 1-4 ACC) will travel to face the #11 Louisville Cardinals (8-1, 4-1 ACC) on Thursday, November 9th at 7:30 pm ET. The game will be televised on ESPN.
Virginia is coming off a 45-17 loss to Georgia Tech while Louisville dominated Virginia Tech 34-3 last week. The Cardinals are currently 20-point favorites at home, with the over/under offered at 50.5.
Let’s further explore the Virginia vs Louisville odds and offer our prediction for Thursday night’s CFB battle.
Virginia vs Louisville Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | +20.0 (-110) | +800 | O 50.5 (-110) |
| Louisville | -20.0 (-110) | -1300 | U 50.5 (-110) |
In the Louisville vs Virginia odds, the Cardinals are huge -1300 moneyline favorites, giving them a 93% implied win probability. The Cavaliers come back as +800 underdogs, giving them 11% implied win probability.
SPORTSBOOK
Virginia vs Louisville History
Louisville and Virginia faced off annually as ACC Coastal division rivals, with the Cardinals having taken six of 11 all-time meetings. The underdog has covered the spread in three out of the past four games, including Virginia’s upset win as a small underdog in 2021.
UVA vs LOU Recent Results
| Date | Home-Away | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2022 | UVA 17 – LOU 34 | LOU +1.5 | Over 47.5 |
| 10/09/2021 | LOU 33 – UVA 34 | UVA +2.5 | Under 70 |
| 11/14/2020 | UVA 31 – LOU 17 | UVA -6.5 | Under 63 |
| 10/26/2019 | LOU 28 – UVA 21 | LOU +4.5 | Under 51 |
| 09/22/2018 | UVA 27 – LOU 3 | UVA -4.5 | Under 51.5 |
In 2022, Louisville won 34-17 on the road thanks to a standout performance from WR Tyler Hudson. In 2021, Virginia pulled off a 34-33 upset victory in Louisville as Brennan Armstrong threw for 487 yards.
Lousiville has averaged around 200 rushing yards in the last five matchups vs Virginia, so the rushing props for Cardinals’ star running back Jawhar Jordan is something we’re looking to take advantage of in the Week 11 college football player props.
Cavaliers Have Struggled
It’s not been a good season for the Cavaliers, who enter this game with a 2-7 record, including a 1-4 mark in ACC conference play. Their only conference win came in a 31-27 upset over #10 North Carolina.
STUNNER IN CHAPEL HILL 😱
24-point underdog Virginia hands No. 10 North Carolina its first loss 😳
(📸 @UVAFootball) pic.twitter.com/XLI04S1feM
— ESPN (@espn) October 22, 2023
The Cavaliers offense ranks 96th nationally, averaging 23.1 points per game. Their passing attack with QB Anthony Colandrea is decent but the running game has struggled, averaging just 120 yards per game on the ground.
Defensively, Virginia has been poor, ranking 114th by allowing 32.4 points per game. They’ve been especially vulnerable against the run, giving up 180 rushing yards per contest.
Cardinals Remain in CFP Hunt
Louisville has had a great season under new coach Jeff Brohm, going 8-1 overall and 4-1 in ACC play. Their only loss was 38-21 at Pittsburgh. The Cardinals have longshot odds in the latest odds to make the CFP.
#Louisville comes in at #11 in the latest CFP RANKINGS pic.twitter.com/YUXVdot8NQ
— Jeff Lightsy Jr. (@jlightsy7) November 8, 2023
The Cardinals offense ranks 32nd nationally, scoring 32.9 points per game. They have a strong rushing attack led by RB Jawhar Jordan (881 yards, 11 TD) that averages 251 yards per game.
Defensively, Louisville is 13th in points allowed, giving up just 16.3 per game. They’ve been dominant in their last two games, shutting out Duke and allowing just a field goal to Virginia Tech.
Virginia vs Louisville Prediction
This is about as lopsided as it gets for a college football conference game. One team is exceeding expectations and still has everything to play for, while the other is racking up losses and not showing much sign of turning things around.
This Louisville offense is dominant, averaging 441 yards and 33 points per contest. We don’t see the Cavaliers’ defense being able to slow them down, especially considering they gave up over 500 yards in their last game against Georgia Tech, with 305 of those coming on the ground.
We have this projected as a three-score win for the Cardinals, and we also think the Cavaliers will be able to put up some points with both QBs Tony Muskett or Anthony Colandrea having the ability to move the ball through the air.
The game total and spread have each climbed a few points since opening, and we’re following the sharp action while there’s still some value left earlier in the week. Take the Cardinals to win big in a rather high-scoring Thursday night affair.
Picks:
- Louisville -20 (-110)
- Over 50.5 Points (-110)
- Jawhar Jordan 1st Half Anytime TD (+105)
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Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
